We have another cracking Premier League game to look forward to on Sunday and Jake Osgathorpe shares his best bets.
- Jake's 25/26 Predictions (incl outrights): Staked 630.00pts | Returned 671.63pts | P/L +41.63pts | ROI 7%
- Jake's World Cup Predictions (incl outrights): Staked 204.60pts | Returned 286.22pts | P/L +81.62pts | ROI 40%
Football betting tips: Premier League
14:00 - Aston Villa vs Brighton
1pt Aston Villa win at 21/10 (General)
0.75pt Promise David 1+ headed shot on target at 4/1 (bet365)
0.25pt Promise David to score a header at 16/1 (bet365)
14:00 - Bournemouth vs Manchester City
0.5pt Bournemouth +0 Asian Handicap at 17/4 (bet365)
16:30 - Newcastle vs Liverpool
0.75pts Newcastle to win at 3/1 (General)
Sunday treble
0.1pt Aston Villa, Bournemouth and Newcastle all to win at 77/1 (bet365)
0.1pt Aston Villa, Bournemouth and Newcastle all to win and BTTS at 329/1 (bet365)
Sunday brings three games with real unknowns heading into the season.
Brighton vs Aston Villa one team already playing European football and another in a squad rebuild. Manchester City vs Bournemouth and Newcastle vs Liverpool both see new managers in the dugouts of all four teams.
It makes predicting things somewhat tricky, but that doesn't just relate to punters, the bookies are in the same boat. And that's why, if you have a strong stance early in the season or a strong view on a team, you have to take some big swings, which is what I'll be doing on 'Super Sunday', especially with the big boys priced very short despite the increased likelihood of early teething issues from the managerial changes.
Given the fact we are siding with the underdogs, we have to take a swing with the TREBLE, just in case, which is 77/1, while the TREBLE AND BTTS at over 300/1 is also worth a very, very small go.
Brighton vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Brighton's actual season got under way on Thursday as they travelled to Norway to take on Tromsø in their Conference League qualifier. That puts a real spanner in the works for Fabian Hurzeler's side ahead of this game.
Not only did they only draw 0-0 in Norway, but the second leg of that match - which is huge by the way - takes place next Thursday. While clubs don't openly think like this, I'm pretty sure internally the Seagulls will be prioritising that second leg over this league fixture.
They have to be. The Conference League is realistically their best route to silverware and Europe next season, so they simply have to go hard at that competition.
That in itself is enough for me to want to swerve them here, before we factor in the travel and the fact this game comes just three days later at such an early stage of the season.
Injuries are also a massive issue for the Seagulls, whose attacking line up looks incredibly tame in the absence of Yankuba Minteh - who could be off to Liverpool anyway - and Kaoru Mitoma, with both injured.
While ASTON VILLA have been gutted in terms of players leaving, the spine of Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans and Morgan Rogers all gone and Ollie Watkins reportedly set to join them in heading for the exit door, I'll still happily take them TO WIN on the south coast at what looks a big price of 21/10.
Despite the departures, they still have arguably the best pound-for-pound manager in the league and a starting XI that looks strong. Emery's record in four games against Hurzeler is excellent, too, winning three of an unbeaten four including two wins at the Amex where Villa have scored at least three times.
More importantly here they have a clear rest advantage and a sole focus of this game, while Brighton will undoubtedly have one eye on a huge game a few days later. It could be well set up for Villa to strike.
One new face in at Brighton is that of gigantic Canadian striker PROMISE DAVID, and while not certain to start, I think we have to have a nibble on him to have 1+ HEADED SHOT ON TARGET.
The 6ft 5in forward is a massive aerial threat, averaging 0.79 headed shots per 90 over the last two seasons at Union St-Gilloise, with a 0.43 headed shot on target per 90 figure. He has five headed goals in that time and a headed xG per 90 of 0.13, so the price on offer for one headed shot on target looks big - I expected 6/4.
Factor in that Villa now have no Konsa, their aerially dominant centre-back, and the angle only appeals more. He'll be up against Victor Lindelof and Pau Torres, while the Villa team as a whole aren't a very big group, which opens up the set-piece possibility as well as open play.
David could have joy here should he either start or enter the fray in the second half, though given he wasn't used in midweek I'd suspect there is a good chance he starts, and so we have take a nibble on the 16/1 for him TO SCORE A HEADER, which looks large based on his averages, which would suggest a fair price would be 8/1.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 15:00 BST (21/08/26)
Man City vs Bournemouth Super Sunday Boost - Your Boost. Your Choice.
Take control of your Super Sunday with the Super Sunday Boost. Instead of us choosing the boosted selection, you decide. Each Super Sunday, we'll provide two eligible selections for you to choose from.
Manchester City vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
What to make of this one, then. Manchester City were very poor last week in the Community Shield, looking extremely undercooked in terms of fitness and preparation as they transition from Pep Guardiola to Enzo Maresca.
The fact the Italian keeps losing experienced players has to be frustrating, with all of Nathan Ake, John Stones, Bernardo Silva and most recently Rodri exiting, and all of a sudden City look a little bit light.
Throw in injuries to Jeremy Doku and Matheus Nunes meaning both are doubts to start here and they don't look backable at the 1/2 price quoted, especially with how lethargic their World Cup stars looked last week, namely Elliot Anderson and Erling Haaland.
Bournemouth have a new manager at the helm for this season too in the form of Marco Rose, but he has had a huge preparation advantage compared to his counterpart here, given he was announced in April and underwent a proper business-y handover before taking pre-season and being involved in squad building from the very first minute the 25/26 season ended.
And, for the first time in a while, the Cherries haven't had their stars poached. The squad is very much the same as the one that finished so well last term, with the club on an 18-game unbeaten run in the top flight. Remarkable stuff.
As ever, their business has been good too, replacing the few exits impressively. Marcos Senesi out, Benfica's Antonio Silva in. Alex Jimenez out, Sevilla's Jaunlu Sanchez in. Enes Unal out, Elche's Alvaro Rodriguez in. They are a well-oiled machine, and I think they are in a better position than City heading into this game.
Just as Arsenal looked fitter and more match sharp last weekend, Bournemouth could well be the same here, with the Cherries fantastically conditioned for high intensity football.
I think they can get something at the Etihad, and it does feel as though we should take a swing given the uncertainty around both sides, so rather than a slightly bigger staked bet on a double chance (7/4) which could get chinned if City turn up, we'll take a smaller swing on BOURNEMOUTH +0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 17/4, with money returned should the game end all square.
We'll either be very right and be celebrating a 4/1 winner as Bournemouth cause the upset, or very wrong and we didn't have to stake much to find out if the theory is correct.
Score prediction: Manchester City 1-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Odds correct at 15:00 BST (21/08/26)
Super Sunday Booster - Booster on your Newcastle v Liverpool BuildABet
It's a blockbuster clash at St. James' Park as Newcastle take on Liverpool in the Premier League. Kick things off with an exclusive Booster on the match from Sky Bet! The offer will go live at 9am on Sunday.
Newcastle vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
While it may seem like I'm being contrarian in my selections or opinions in gameweek one, maybe channelling my inner Jimmy the Punt, I genuinely believe we will see some upsets as none of the big teams will play up to the expectations of them, especially the ones with new managers.
Teams like Manchester City and Liverpool are still being thought of as sides managed by the very best with the very best players, but after this summer, that's just simply not the case, and I can't be having the Reds at odds-on against Newcastle at St. James' Park.
Pre-season I wrote a long read about why I want to oppose Liverpool, and hopefully it pays off.
Everything in that piece remains the same, with the Reds doing little-to-no transfer business since, and I just think they are being overestimated at the moment, and in this game it's probably exacerbated by the perceived turmoil of Newcastle.
I say perceived because I think their so-called plight has been blown way out of proportion. Yes they have lost starting players but there is no question they got maximum value for assets who didn't perform to their expected levels last season.
The squad that new, highly-regarded, manager Matthias Jaissle has at his disposal is still very good and I'd argue it's more than a match for Liverpool here in the early stages of Andoni Iraola's tenure.
They have the tools to make this a very tough afternoon, and, playing in front of a home crowd who will be bang up for this and wanting to get one over on pantomime villain Alexander Isak, I'll happily back NEWCASTLE TO WIN at 3/1.
While it is a new regime, it can't be overstated how poorly Liverpool travelled last season, losing nine and winning just seven away league games, and no question the starting XI this season is worse than last season at this moment in time having lost Ibrahima Konate, Mohamed Salah and Curtis Jones - who was arguably Liverpool's best right back at times.
The Reds have problems, Newcastle have a fresh slate and the beauty of no expectations. They can play the underdog tag and really give it a good go here which is dangerous for visitors.
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 15:00 BST (21/08/26)
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