Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Red card in the match at 4/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Both teams to have a red card at 90/1 (William Hill)
1pt Jude Bellingham to be carded at 4/1 (bet365)
0.25pts Bellingham to be sent off at 50/1 (bet365)
*all bets in 90 minutes
BuildABet @ 50/1
- A red card in the match
- Jude Bellingham to be carded
- Bukayo Saka +1 shot on target
- Myles Lewis-Skelly 2+ fouls
Three goals to the good at the halfway stage, Arsenal have one foot in the Champions League semi-finals.
In truth, the scoreline flattered Mikel Arteta’s side a little bit, with Declan Rice’s stunning brace of free-kicks the most decisive element of the opening leg.
That's not to say the hosts were not value for the win. Arsenal generated 1.64 xG to Real Madrid’s 0.50, hitting the target 11 times to Los Blancos' three.
It leaves Carlo Ancelotti’s side with an almost impossible task.
A historic turnaround is not out of the realms of possibility at the ‘factory of miracles’. I won’t be backing it though, Madrid to qualify is a painfully short 6/1. For context, Aston Villa are 10s to overthrow a two-goal deficit against PSG.
With a favourable referee appointment, the card markets look the best way in at the Bernabeu.
What are the best bets?
Frenchman Francois Letexier has the whistle in Madrid and he is a good ’un for cards.
The referee has dished out 109 in 25 appearances, nine of which have been red.
On the continent, he has averaged 4.1 cards and 0.42 reds per game. Letexier has dealt three red cards in six Champions League games this season and two in four knockout appearances across his career.
In short, I think someone's getting an early bath on Wednesday.
The referee’s card-wielding antics aside, in the most diplomatic way possible, these are two petulant teams.
Backing both A RED CARD IN THE MATCH and BOTH TEAMS TO HAVE A RED CARD appeals at chunky prices.
Sticking along similar lines, JUDE BELLINGHAM’s price TO BE CARDED has to be worth a punt.
His card per 90 average of 0.26 makes the price available value without considering his record against English clubs.
Since leaving Birmingham, he has five Champions League knockout cards, all of which have come against Premier League teams.
At 50/1, Bellingham’s price TO BE SENT OFF also appeals.
He is a big character, the type to grab games by the scruff of the neck and I worry about his temperament if things aren't going his way.
Team news
Kylian Mbappe’s sending off against Alaves has no bearing on European fixtures so the frontman will spearhead an attacking quartet with Bellingham in the 10, Rodrygo on the right and Vinicius Junior on the left.
Eduardo Camavinga is suspended after his petulant red card in the first leg, he is one of three players unavailable for Los Blancos. Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao are ruled out and Ferland Mendy and Andriy Lunin are doubts.
As for the visitors, Riccardo Calafiori, Ben White and Jorginho are doubts. Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Magalhaes, Kai Havertz and Takehiro Tomiyasu are ruled out.
Mikel Merino is expected to drop into midfield with Leandro Trossard taking his place in attack.
Predicted line-up
Real Madrid: Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Alaba; Tchouameni, Modric; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius Junior; Mbappe
Arsenal: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly; Odegaard, Merino, Rice; Saka, Trossard, Martinelli
Match facts
- Arsenal remain unbeaten against Real Madrid in European competition (W2 D1), and haven’t conceded a single goal across their three meetings. The Gunners could become the first side ever to keep four consecutive clean sheets against Los Blancos in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League.
- Real Madrid’s defeat at the Emirates Stadium was the fifth time they have lost the first leg of a knockout stage tie in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League by 3+ goals, while they’ve been eliminated in the second leg in three of the previous four occasions (the exception being against Derby County in the last 16 in 1975-76, winning 6-5 on aggregate after a 1-4 defeat in the first leg).
- Across the 53 games that Real Madrid have played against English sides in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League, they’ve managed to win by more than three goals on just two previous occasions: 5-1 v Derby County in 1975-76 (last 16) and 4-0 v Tottenham Hotspur in 2010-11 (quarter-final).
- Since the start of the 2015-16 season, this will be the 16 th time that Real Madrid have played the second leg of a UEFA Champions League knockout stage tie at home. Of the previous 15, they’ve only been eliminated on one occasion (v Ajax in the last 16 in 2018-19), and progressed from the last eight in a row.
- Arsenal could equal their longest winning run away from home in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League (4 – won their last three). Indeed, the only previous time they won four in a row, the fourth game of that run was a victory against Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu (1-0 in February 2006, last 16 first leg).
- Arsenal have scored an average of 2.55 goals and conceded 0.55 per game in the UEFA Champions League this season (28 scored, six conceded overall), with both of these being their second-best averages in a single European Cup/Champions League campaign, after the 2.63 scored in 2010-11 and 0.31 conceded in 2005-06.
- Despite averaging more possession (53.4%), Arsenal made 115 high-intensity pressures in the final third in the first leg of this tie. This was more than three times as many as Real Madrid, whose total of 36 was the lowest of any side across this season’s quarter-final first legs. (See graphic on next page)
- Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé has been directly involved in eight goals in eight knockout stage games against English sides in the UEFA Champions League (seven goals, one assist), including five in four home outings (four goals, one assist).
- Currently on 28 goals and 21 assists, Vinícius Júnior could become the fourth different Real Madrid player to reach 50 goal involvements in the UEFA Champions League (after Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, and Raúl), which would be at least twice as many as any other team (Lewandowski and Müller for Bayern).
- In the first leg of this tie, Myles Lewis-Skelly became just the third English teenager to assist a goal in a UEFA Champions League knockout stage match. All three of those have done so while playing for Arsenal: Theo Walcott in 2008 (v Milan and Liverpool), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain in 2012 (v Milan) and Myles Lewis-Skelly in 2025 (v Real Madrid).
Odds correct at 1400 BST (14/04/25)
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