Jake Pearson previews the World Cup play-off between Portugal and Turkey, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
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Football betting tips: World Cup play-offs
1pt Both Teams to Score 'NO' at 5/6 (BetVictor)
After finishing second to Serbia in qualifying, Portugal will need to navigate two tricky play-off ties if they are to line up at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
Should Fernando Santos’s men progress past Turkey, they will meet the winner of Italy v North Macedonia five days later.
A 0-0 draw with the Republic of Ireland in their penultimate group game meant their final fixture against Serbia was a winner-takes-all match-up, with Aleksander Mitrovic’s 90th minute winner sealing the group for the Serbians after Renato Sanches had initially put Portugal ahead early on.
Their first task is to beat a Turkey side that finished runners-up to the Netherlands in Group G, but for all that Stefan Kuntz’ side lost just once in qualification, the calibre of opposition was far from the level of Portugal, and it became apparent in Euro 2020 how misleading those results had been.
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Thursday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Portugal 4/11 | Draw 15/4 | Turkey 15/2
Three successive defeats left Turkey bottom of their group and exiting the European Championship without a point – their consolation against Switzerland the only goal they managed in the tournament – and though they have lost just once since then – to the Netherlands – again, their victories have come against Gibraltar, Latvia and Montenegro, who are ranked 203rd, 135th and 72nd in the world respectively.
Turkey have found the back of the net in each of their last seven competitive matches, but again, quality of opposition must be taken into account, and with the Dutch the only notable name in there, perhaps their Euros form would be a better guide.
Portugal may have conceded seven goals at Euro 2020, but their opponents included Germany, France and Belgium, and against lower quality opposition they have been much better defensively, keeping four clean sheets in their six matches since the summer tournament.
They can keep Turkey at bay here, but with so much riding on this fixture, expect a cautious approach from the 2016 European Champions.
They drew a blank against Ireland two matches ago, and it could pay to side with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ at a price of 5/6 in this fixture.
Portugal kept a clean sheet in 50% of their qualifying matches throughout the group stage, and siding with Santos to revert to type and set his team up in a defensive manner could prove a profitable route in what is a huge fixture for both nations.
Portugal v Turkey best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Both Teams to Score 'NO' at 5/6 (BetVictor)
Score prediction: Portugal 1-0 Turkey (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1230 GMT (21/03/22)
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