Jake Pearson previews Leicester's trip to Norwich, picking out a couple of best bets as well as a score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 10.5 Corners at 4/5 (Unibet)
1pt Under 9.5 Corners at 11/8 (Unibet)
Norwich were undoubtedly dealt a raw hand by the Premier League’s random fixture generator, starting their return to the top-flight at home to Liverpool, before travelling to the Etihad to face last season’s champions Manchester City.
Few expected Norwich to pick up many, if any, points from those opening fixtures, but to be bottom of the league two games in having failed to score and already conceded eight, is not a good start.
Norwich did bounce back in midweek, subjecting Bournemouth to a humiliating 6-0 hammering in the Carabao Cup, and they will certainly take encouragement from that performance; even if Daniel Farke did make 10 changes to the team that were beaten 5-0 by City at the weekend.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Norwich 16/5 | Draw 13/5 | Leicester 5/6
Here they host a Leicester side a little out of sorts, three points on the board but yet to produce a convincing performance.
Their 1-0 victory over Wolves on the opening weekend can be safely filed in the “smash and grab” folder, a deft Jamie Vardy finish giving them the win in a game in which they were second best – Wolves creating far the better chances (xG: LEI 0.55-1.66 WOL).
West Ham then exploited clear deficiencies in Brendan Rogers’ side on Monday night, running out 4-1 winners, and while Leicester did play the entire second half with 10 men, they had struggled to create even with Ayoze Perez still on the pitch; a stifled attack is becoming a theme of the Foxes’ play this season.
Leicester are fancied to win this match, but there is little value to be had in delving into the 1X2 market.
A better angle to look at it is how the game is likely to play out, and exactly what that means in terms of the more stats-based bets, specifically corners.
According to expected goals (xG), only Crystal Palace have created fewer chances than Leicester across their two opening matches this season, with the Foxes averaging a measly 0.7 xGF per game. Slightly above Leicester, with an average of 0.8 xGF per game, the joint-fifth lowest in the league, are Norwich.
It is not just creating chances that both these sides have struggled with however, it is also simply getting shots off.
Only Palace have registered fewer shots than Leicester this season, while Norwich’s 15 attempts is only one more than Brendan Rodgers’ men.
Given the struggles both these sides have faced in terms of creating opportunities, not only to score, but just to shoot, corners could well be at a premium.
UNDER 10.5 CORNERS is available at a top price of 4/5, and that is a certainly worth backing with confidence, but the 11/8 about UNDER 9.5 CORNERS also makes appeal and is a price worth getting on side.
Norwich v Leicester best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 10.5 Corners at 4/5 (Unibet)
- 1pt Under 9.5 Corners at 11/8 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Norwich 0-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1425 BST (25/08/21)
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