Liam Kelly previews Newcastle's hosting of Everton at St. James' Park, expecting the hosts to test Jordan Pickford a fair amount.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Newcastle 14+ total shots at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
It would be foolish to completely throw out the form book for this match-up, but both these sides have a different look to them after the transfer window.
Newcastle's riches are well-documented, bringing in plenty of new faces in January that have to gel almost immediately to lift them out of relegation trouble.
Everton also made moves on deadline day, as well as hiring Frank Lampard as manager since their last Premier League game, further raising the unpredictable nature of this fixture.
As a result, the match odds just aren't appealing in the slightest. Newcastle simply shouldn't be backed as favourites, and Everton have been too underwhelming to fancy an away win.
Instead, an odds-against poke on NEWCASTLE to record 14+ TOTAL SHOTS is the selection.
Newcastle's problems this season have mainly been in defence, conceding 43 goals in 21 Premier League matches, while allowing an average of 2.01 expected goals against (xGA) per game — more than any other side in the league.
Clearly a point of emphasis when trawling the market, Eddie Howe now has Kieran Trippier, Dan Burn and Matt Targett to call upon. Add in the excellent Bruno Guimarães and Newcastle have a much better foundation to move forward from.
At the other end, talent has rarely been an issue. Allan Saint-Maximin is a constant threat, while Joelinton, Joe Willock and Miguel Almirón are all capable of servicing Chris Wood.
Everton's appointment of Frank Lampard also offers hope that this game will be an open one, often giving his teams freedom to attack — certainly more than previous manager Rafa Benítez. January's additions promise as much, too.
However, Everton's frailties on the road might be more difficult for Lampard to shake.
The Toffees have picked up just six points away from home this term, four of which came in the opening two road games of the season, losing six of their last eight.
More pertinent to our selection is their poor defensive numbers, shipping an average of 1.72 xGA per game on their travels.
Backed by what is likely to be raucous support, I expect Newcastle to test former Sunderland man Jordan Pickford a fair amount.
Newcastle v Everton best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Newcastle 14+ total shots at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1215 GMT (07/02/22)
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