Manchester United host Aston Villa in the Premier League on Saturday, ahead of a massive few weeks for the Red Devils. Michael Beardmore has picked out two best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Manchester United to win and Both Teams to Score at 19/10 (William Hill, BoyleSports)
0.5pt Danny Ings, Ollie Watkins, Cristiano Ronaldo & Bruno Fernandes 10+ shots on target combined at 9/1 (Sky Bet)
It seems far too early in the season to say this but Manchester United’s nine-game run between now and the November international break could make or break their campaign.
In that time, the Red Devils host Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool and arch-rivals Manchester City in the Premier League as well as visiting Leicester and Tottenham – a pretty tough sequence.
In addition, United – who saw another route of a first trophy under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer disappear with their midweek Carabao Cup loss to West Ham – face first Villarreal and then Atalanta, twice, in the Champions League.
On paper, the most straightforward of those games is arguably this weekend against a Villa side who have an absolutely rotten record against United.
Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
Manchester United 4/11 | Draw 4/1 | Aston Villa 7/1
Villa have won just once – ONCE! – in the last 45 Premier League meetings between the teams, losing 33 of those and while they have made a steady enough start this season, I can’t see past another defeat for them here.
United have been imperious in their two home league games thus far, thrashing Leeds 5-1 and Newcastle 4-1, the latter inspired by the triumphant return of Cristiano Ronaldo to Old Trafford.
What the Red Devils haven’t been doing, however, is keeping clean sheets – not against Leeds, nor Newcastle, nor Southampton, nor West Ham (twice). Even when they did secure a shut-out they were massively fortunate, losing the Expected Goals (xG) battle 2.55-0.86 at Wolves.
Villa are better than most of those aforementioned outfits and won the xG battle at Chelsea 1.33-1.13 recently despite losing the game 3-0.
I fancy Dean Smith’s side to score at the Theatre of Dreams but to be ultimately overpowered by Ronaldo and co so MAN UTD TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appeals at 19/10, especially considering the hosts are a flimsy 4/11 to win generally.
Ronaldo’s return makes value incredibly difficult to find in the scoring markets and even Villa anytime scorers are priced up fairly stingily, perhaps with United's paucity of clean sheets in mind.
Indeed, the better shouts are to be found in the shots markets when you look at the numbers being posted by the hosts. It really is a case of take your pick – and I’d certainly suggest a good mooch through as you'll find plenty you might like.
For example - between them, and yes, it’s only a small sample size so early in the season, Ronaldo and compatriot Bruno Fernandes are averaging 10 shots a game at 6.5 and 3.4 respectively.
Not all of those are on target admittedly but they did test the goalkeeper seven times between them at West Ham last weekend. You can get a repeat of that 7+ shots on target between the two at 5/1 with Sky Bet but I’m going to look a bit more ambitiously.
Sky Bet go 9/1 on RONALDO, FERNANDES, DANNY INGS & OLLIE WATKINS TO HAVE 10+ SHOTS ON TARGET BETWEEN THEM.
United are conceding an average of four shots on target per game this season and you would fancy the experienced Ings and wily Watkins to keep that sort of ratio going.
It’s still an ask but at the odds on offer and with the shoot-on-sight approach Ronaldo and Fernandes seem to be adopting, it’s worth a play at small stakes.
Manchester United v Aston Villa best bets and score prediction
- Manchester United to win and Both Teams to Score at 19/10 (William Hill, BoyleSports)
- Danny Ings, Ollie Watkins, Cristiano Ronaldo & Bruno Fernandes 10+ shots on target combined at 9/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Manchester United 3-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1530 BST (23/09/21)
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