- Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore) is +30.9pts in profit for the 2023/24 football season
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Bernardo Silva to score anytime at 13/5 (Bet365)
1pt Rodri to be shown a card at 11/2 (bet365)
Since joining the managerial ranks, Vincent Kompany hasn't exactly had much fun against the club that built a statue of him following his decade of service and success at Etihad Stadium.
His Burnley side were thumped 6-0 there in the FA Cup quarter-finals last season and lost 3-0 at Turf Moor on the opening night of their Premier League return.
Then again, not many have much luck against the winning machine that is Pep Guardiola's City, do they? Seven successive wins in league and cup are a warning to their rivals that, as usual, they are hitting their stride in the second half of the season.
A tall task then awaits the Clarets, five points adrift of Premier League safety, on Wednesday night.
What are the best bets?
The fact you can get bigger odds on Burnley to win at the Etihad than you could on non-league Maidstone to bridge a four-division gap and beat Ipswich in the FA Cup at the weekend pretty much tells you all you need to know here.
Manchester City will win. It's a case of when, not if, and by how much.
Value can be often difficult to locate around such a predictably good City side but I'm intrigued by two enticing prices on a pair of Guardiola mainstays.
BERNARDO SILVA is always a threat to any defence but he's really stepped up in the absence of the injured Erling Haaland, scoring four goals in his past nine appearances.
With Haaland close to fitness but unlikely to be risked for this one and Kevin de Bruyne's return still being carefully managed, the Portuguese is a very tasty 13/5 with bet365 TO SCORE ANYTIME against the division's second-worst defence.
The Clarets are allowing 17.8 shots per away game while City are averaging seven shots on target a match, meaning Bernardo should get plenty of openings to continue his fine recent scoring form.
I also cannot let the 11/2 on RODRI TO BE SHOWN A CARD pass by unbacked - he's amassed 10 yellows and one red in 29 games for club and country this season.
I understand the inferior quality of opposition means he might not have to get as stuck in as normal - but he's been booked against Fulham, West Ham and Luton, plus against Georgia and Norway for Spain. The price is twice as big as it should be.
BuildABet @60/1
- Bernardo Silva to score
- Bernardo Silva 2+ tackles
- Rodri to be shown a card
- Lyle Foster 1+ offsides
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Bernardo Silva is not afraid to get stuck in - he's averaging 1.8 tackles per game this season and has made two or more in each of City's past four home games, including against struggling pair Crystal Palace and Sheffield United.
Burnley will almost certainly be restricted to counter-attacks at the Etihad and speedy striker Lyle Foster has been caught offside at least once in each of his past three away appearances.
Team news
Erling Haaland could be among the City substitutes after a nagging foot injury that has plagued him for almost two months, while Kevin de Bruyne may be handed a first Premier League start since injuring his hamstring at Burnley back in August.
Ederson will return in goal after missing the FA Cup win at Tottenham while John Stones, an unused substitute at Spurs, is available after an ankle injury and if Manuel Akanji can shake off a knock, Guardiola will have a virtually empty treatment room.
Burnley will be without Luca Koleosho (knee), Charlie Taylor (shoulder) and Nathan Redmond (hamstring) for the foreseeable future, while Sander Berge, Aaron Ramsey (both illness), Jordan Beyer (thigh) and Hannes Delcroix (knock) are doubts too.
The Clarets could give a debut to on-loan Chelsea striker David Fofana, who is vying with Zeki Amdouni and Lyle Foster for Burnley's attacking berths.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester City: Ederson; Walker, Dias, Ake, Gvardiol; Rodri, Kovacic; Bernardo, Foden, Doku; Alvarez
Burnley: Trafford; Vitinho, O'Shea, Ekdal, Al-Dakhil; Gudmundsson, Cullen, Brownhill, Odobert; Fofana, Foster
Match stats
- Manchester City have won 16 of their last 17 meetings with Burnley in all competitions (D1), winning the last 12 in a row by an aggregate score of 43-1.
- Burnley are winless in 16 top-flight away games against Manchester City (D5 L11) since a 5-2 victory in March 1963.
- Since the start of 2017-18, no side has won more Premier League away games against the reigning champions than Burnley (2), with the Clarets winning at Chelsea (August 2017) and Liverpool (January 2021) in that time.
- Manchester City have won 15 of their last 16 Premier League games against promoted clubs (D1) since a 1-2 defeat to Leeds in April 2021. That defeat is their only loss in their last 49 top-flight home games against promoted sides (W43 D5).
- Manchester City have spent the longest time winning (850 minutes) and the least amount of time losing (188 minutes) in the Premier League this season. They’ve trailed for just three minutes at home this term, against Tottenham.
- Burnley have dropped 18 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season – only in 2016-17 (19) have they ever lost more in a single campaign in the competition.
- The Clarets are without a goal in over 12 hours of football against Manchester City in all competitions, since Robbie Brady's consolation in a 4-1 loss in December 2019. The last Burnley player to score at the Etihad was Ashley Barnes, in an FA Cup tie in January 2018.
- Kevin De Bruyne marked his Premier League return from injury last time out with a goal and an assist from the bench against Newcastle United. The Belgian has been involved in six goals in his last five appearances against Burnley in all competitions (2 goals, 4 assists).
Odds correct 1200 GMT (30/01/24)
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