Liam Kelly previews Manchester City's hosting of Brentford at the Etihad, picking out a best bet that gets the strengths of Pep Guardiola's team onside.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals in the match at 5/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
The Manchester City machine returns to Premier League action looking to rebound from a slight malfunction against Southampton, a 1-1 draw that allowed Liverpool to cut the lead at the top of the table.
Up against a Brentford side that have lost five straight in all competitions, City have an excellent chance to extend the lead before their nearest challengers play on Thursday.
Obviously Pep Guardiola's side are far too short to be the selection in this match-up, but I think it is worth combining MANCHESTER CITY TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS IN THE MATCH — a bet build that boosts the price to 5/4.
Of City's 18 wins in the Premier League this season, a total of 11 have also had three goals or less. Indeed, Pep's side can be somewhat boring in their dismantling of opposition, the cogs turning toward another smooth title win.
That starts with a downright dominant defence.
City have conceded just 14 goals in 23 league games this term, averaging 0.72 expected goals against (xGA) per game. Predictably, both those numbers trend to an even more positive position when they play at home.
While it's true that City are often expected to demolish newly-promoted teams, especially at the Etihad, most would agree that Brentford appear to be a solid Premier League club in their maiden campaign.
Having played the majority of the league's top teams relatively close this season, I would be surprised to see the Bees completely blown out here.
The return of multiple defensive players from injury recently is a huge help, and we don't have to look further back than late December to see that Thomas Frank's men can keep things close against City.
City won that game by a goal to nil, a result in-line with the limited amount of chances created in the match-up (xG: BRE 0.28 - 1.09 MCI) at the Brentford Community Stadium.
Let's hope we get a similar result in this one.
Manchester City v Brentford best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals in the match at 5/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1120 GMT (08/02/22)
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