Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt Calvin Ramsay to be carded at 12/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Federico Chiesa to be carded at 20/1 (bet365)
0.25pt Ramsay and Chiesa to be carded at 250/1 (bet365)
0.25pt Jack Shepherd to score anytime at 35/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
- Note: All bets are 'normal time' (i.e. in 90 minutes/not extra-time and penalties) only
The last time these two squared-off was 16 years ago. Same competition, same venue, in the fifth round though.
At the time Barnsley were in the Coca-Cola Championship, now they are languishing towards the wrong end of Sky Bet League One. Liverpool were competing for a top-four spot under Rafa Benitez, now the reigning Premier League champions are doing similar under Arne Slot.
The home side that afternoon featured Xabi Alonso, Steven Gerrard, Peter Crouch and Dirk Kuyt and they took the lead through the latter. The visitors turned it around in the second half, Stephen Foster grabbed the equaliser and Brian Howard won it in stoppage time.
Interestingly, Barnsley went off a little over 15/1 in 2008 and are trending towards that price on Monday.
In the third tier, the Reds (Barnsley) sit two points above the drop zone, are winless in four but have as many as four games in hand on some of the teams around them.
The reason for the poor form is pretty simple. Rookie Conor Hourihane is 40 games into his managerial career yet he has only overseen two clean sheets and his side have conceded two or more goals in 60% of those fixtures.
Barnsley have no issues at the other end, netting in 78% of their games under Hourihane, but at 4/5, both teams to score is a touch short.
Besides, I think we can be a little bolder with the picks because the Barnsley boss usually goes pretty strong in cups. The same cannot be said for his opposite number.
Arne Slot made 10 changes for the Carabao Cup clash with Crystal Palace earlier this season and his side lost 3-0. Last term the Reds (Liverpool) were knocked out of this competition by Plymouth - who went on to get relegated from the second tier - in the fourth round. Slot had (again) made 10 changes.
As one of nine fixtures his side will play in January, expect heavy rotation to continue.
Is the price about an away win on Monday big enough though? They opened at 25/1 in places, shortened to 10/1 and have been on the drift since. Plymouth, who were at home, went off at 11/1 last season.
All things considered, the 1x2 is probably best left alone. I’ve got a few pro-Barnsley angles anyway.
Barnsley centre-back JACK SHEPHERD is 35/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME.
He’s not broken his duck this season but has had three shots in his last two appearances and based on his goals per 90 average (0.04), his price is too big. Shepherd will also be one of his side's main threats with Marc Roberts sidelined.
Then factor in Liverpool’s set-piece shortcomings, Virgil van Dijk, Ibrahima Konate and Alisson Becker's probable exclusion and there is a lot to like about the Barnsley defender.
It doesn't have to be a set-piece goal either, skip to 50 seconds on the video below to see what Shepherd is capable of.
I have also been suckered in by the card prices. The following bets come with a pretty big caution though, card averages decrease significantly in the FA Cup.
FEDERICO CHIESA is 20/1 TO BE CARDED. I cannot resist.
He has two cards in 240 minutes of top-flight action this term, two cards in 435 minutes of English domestic cup action (0.41 cards per 90) and a career cards per 90 average of 0.19 which roughly translates to a price of 9/2.
Liverpool’s right-back is also worth targeting - whoever it may be - because of the player they will be opposing.
Reyes Cleary has drawn cards from his opposite number in six of 15 starts including against Brighton and Turkey full-back Ferdi Kadioglu in the Carabao Cup.
CALVIN RAMSAY could be the Liverpool man at right-back and is 12/1 TO BE CARDED.
He started the last cup game for Liverpool, but Slot could opt for Joe Gomez or Jeremie Frimpong so check the team news.
Whoever it is, I'll be backing them for a card as long as they are opposing Cleary.
And who am I to resist the 250/1 CHIESA-RAMSAY CARD DOUBLE?
Odds correct at 13:55 GMT (09/01/26)
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