Football betting tips: Super Sunday
3.5pts Liverpool to win to nil at 11/10 (William Hill, BetVictor)
1pt James Justin to be shown a card at 9/1 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 40/1
- Both teams to score 'no'
- Mohamed Salah 1+ assists
- James Justin card
There can’t have been many times in Premier League history that a team has been 1/6 to win away, nor a team 14/1 to win at home.
Given the miracle title-winning season witnessed at the King Power a decade ago it would be fitting for Leicester's utterly forgettable, year-long return to the top flight to end in a defeat that would not only confirm their own relegation, but may also officially crown their opponents as champions.
While that would neatly encapsulate just how far this football club has fallen since its disinterested owners decided they no longer fancied funding it, such perfect Easter Sunday dichotomy is perhaps too much to ask, with us likely to have settle for the first part alone.
The Foxes may very well be down already by the time things get under way, with a Wolves win at Manchester United earlier in the day enough to send them back to the Sky Bet Championship. Even without it, only the most unlikely of victories will delay the inevitable.
As for Liverpool, they head into Sunday with a 13-point advantage over Arsenal. Regardless of other results, six points guarantees them the title.
Should the Gunners lose at Ipswich in mid-afternoon, the Reds - boosted ahead of kick-off by news that captain Virgil van Dijk has followed Mohamed Salah and signed a new contract - will need just one win.
So it really is a possibility that both kinds of tears are shed in the East Midlands come early evening.
What are the best bets?
I’m struggling to imagine a scenario where I would even remotely consider getting the hosts onside against any opponent, never mind Liverpool.
While hard to remember a managerial appointment going as badly wrong, Ruud van Nistelrooy can't take all the blame for Leicester’s appalling campaign with ownership apathy ultimately resulting in a squad vastly inferior to that at the disposal of Enzo Maresca in the Championship last term.
However, there is no shying away from the Foxes’ eye-wateringly bad form under the Dutchman.
W2 D2 L14 - a points per game average of 0.44 - is bad enough, but given four highly fortunate points were gathered in van Nistelrooy's opening two matches, things are in fact even worse. Leicester average 0.31 ppg since that anomalous opening week of December, which is the same point in the season we have to go back to for the last time Foxes fans saw their team score a home Premier League goal.
A run of eight straight defeats has seen Wolves, Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Arsenal, Brentford, Manchester United and Newcastle all WIN TO NIL. It's frankly staggering that a LIVERPOOL team 1/6 for victory can be backed at 11/10 in that market, a bet we should throw considerable weight behind.
All other routes into backing an away win look to have been closed off by the bookies and predicting how many goals Liverpool will score is difficult.
If you do fancy chancing your arm then the Foxes' current home losing run has contained four 2-0 losses, three have ended 3-0 and Brentford took them apart in a match that was truly the nadir of Van Nistelrooy's reign, with his team clinging on to lose 4-0 having been three down by the half-hour mark against a team well-known for being poor travellers.
It would be remiss of me not to acknowledge that Liverpool's form has dropped off a little lately, but only from an almost unsustainable, relentlessly high level.
Three defeats in five looks worse than it is, with two of those coming away from the top flight. In their 'bread and butter' as Bill Shankly would always put it, it's five wins from their last six matches.
Truly falling to pieces aren't they.
I really like the look of one further bet, with JAMES JUSTIN's price TO BE SHOWN A CARD a touch big at 9/1.
The Leicester full-back-cum-wing-back has been booked in two of their last three games, with Omar Marmoush and Tino Livramento both exposing his defensive shortcomings, forcing a cynical foul.
Up against Cody Gakpo or Luis Diaz and a Liverpool team whose centre-forwards and central midfielders are heavily biased towards drifting to the left-hand side, he'll have his work cut out on Sunday.
Team news
Leicester have Wout Faes and Jeremy Monga back from injury and are hopeful Victor Kristiansen and Facundo Buonanotte will return too.
Harry Winks remains unavailable after falling out with Van Nistelrooy. Abdul Fatawu is injured.
Liverpool striker Darwin Nunez is expected to return from illness, while Trent Alexander-Arnold - who still looks set to leave for Real Madrid on a free transfer - could be on the bench after recovering from an ankle injury
Joe Gomez and Tyler Morton are still out.
Predicted line-ups
Leicester: Hermansen; Pereira, Okoli, Coady, Justin; Ndidi, Soumare; McAteer, El Khannouss, Mavididi; Vardy.
Liverpool: Alisson; Bradley, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Salah, Szoboszlai, Diaz; Gakpo.
Match facts
- Leicester have won just two of their last 13 Premier League games against Liverpool (D1 L10), with both these wins coming consecutively at home in 2021 (3-1 in February, 1-0 in December).
- Liverpool have won their last four Premier League games against Leicester, while they’ve only failed to score in one of their last 15 against the Foxes in the league, a 0-1 loss in December 2021.
- Leicester have lost both of their league games played on Easter Sunday, going down 0-3 at West Ham in the second tier in 1993, and 1-2 at Newcastle in the Premier League in 2022.
- Liverpool have lost just one of their 10 league games played on Easter Sunday (W7 D2), going down 3-0 at Manchester United in 2008. They will be the second team (after Arsenal earlier today) to play on Easter Sunday in three consecutive years, drawing 2-2 with Arsenal in 2023 and beating Brighton 2-1 last year.
- Leicester City have lost their last eight home Premier League games without scoring a single goal, a record run in top-flight history. Only six teams have ever lost nine home games in a row in the top-flight, most recently Southampton between November and March this season.
- If Arsenal lose and Liverpool win on Sunday, the Reds will be crowned champions. It’d be just the sixth time a side has won the top-flight title with five games to spare, with Liverpool in 2019-20 the last occasion that happened, winning it with seven games to go, a record.
- Leicester are looking to avoid becoming the first side in top-flight history to go nine consecutive home games without scoring a goal. In Football League history across all divisions, only Mansfield (9 in third tier between August and December 1971) and Wolves (10 in second tier between December 1984 and April 1985) have achieved this unwanted feat.
- Mohamed Salah has scored in all five of Liverpool’s Premier League games against newly promoted sides this season (7 goals). No player in the competition’s history has scored in six separate matches against promoted clubs in a single campaign.
- Stephy Mavididi has scored in four Premier League games for Leicester this season but is yet to end on the winning side (D3 L1). The only Foxes player to score in more games without winning in a season is Mark Draper in 1994-95 (5).
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has been involved in 45 Premier League goals this season (27 goals, 18 assists), a record for a 38-game season. The all-time record is 47, by Andrew Cole in 1993-94 and Alan Shearer in 1994-95 (both 34 goals, 13 assists).
Odds correct at 1550 BST (19/04/25)
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