Liam Kelly previews Newcastle's trip to face an in-form Leeds side, forecasting another good attacking display from the hosts at Elland Road.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Leeds to win at Evens (General)
1.5pts Leeds 18+ total shots at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
Finally, things look to be on the up for Leeds United.
After a tumultuous first half of the Premier League season, filled with injuries and unsatisfactory results, 2022 has started with two vital league wins against Burnley and West Ham, moving away from the bottom three as a result.
Opponents Newcastle remain firmly within the drop zone, however, drawing 1-1 with Watford at St. James' Park last weekend, allowing the severely out-of-form side back in the game after taking the lead (xG: NEW 1.55 - 1.57 WAT).
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Leeds 19/20 | Draw 11/4 | Newcastle 13/5
A disastrous defensive process still afflicts Newcastle, even after the change of manager, allowing an average of 2.05 expected goals against (xGA) per game in the league this season.
That is a solid baseline for the two selections for this match-up.
Granted, Leeds have similarly poor numbers in regards to their defence, but, as West Ham found out on Super Sunday (xG: WHU 2.70 - 2.10 LEE), Marcelo Bielsa's side are capable of beating any team on a going day.
Those days are look ever more likely lately, welcoming many players back from the treatment room. Therefore, it's a surprise to see the LEEDS TO WIN available at even money, especially at Elland Road.
Jake Pearson outlined why that price looks like value in his Beat the Market column earlier this week, and I'm happy to follow him in given what we've seen from the two teams recently.
Further interest from myself comes in the shots markets offered at Sky Bet, with LEEDS 18+ TOTAL SHOTS making appeal at odds-against. At 5/4, that should be backed.
As mentioned, Newcastle are dreadful at the back, allowing 18+ shots to their opponent in nine of their 20 Premier League games this season — including in the reverse fixture at home to Leeds in September (22 shots).
Now, the Leeds attack returning to some form, recording expected goals (xG) totals of 2.01 against Burnley and 2.10 against West Ham, it's easy to envisage the hosts breaching the 18+ shot marker.
Game state is unlikely to affect the approach of Leeds in regards to the selection, too, forever happy to keep attacking no matter what the scoreline.
With Rodrigo and Patrick Bamford back and ready for minutes, and the duo of Raphinha and Jack Harrison in seemingly scintillating form, Newcastle have a tough time ahead.
Eddie Howe has has failed to fix defensive issues and Leeds are set to take full advantage. We can too, with both picks appearing to be good value.
Leeds v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Leeds to win at Evens (General)
- 1.5pts Leeds 18+ total shots at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Leeds 3-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1540 GMT (19/01/22)
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