When the Leeds United board dismissed Jesse Marsch a fortnight ago they did not anticipate they would be here, sighing with relief as they welcome a man last seen in the Qatar Stars League.
Andrea Radrizzani has botched this process, of that there can be no doubt following the very public failure to attract anyone on his shortlist, and yet that does not necessarily mean Leeds have ended up in the wrong place.
In former Watford head coach Javi Gracia, Leeds have appointed someone with Premier League experience who has excelled playing in a tactical style that is, just maybe, an ideal midpoint between the dogmatism of the last two Leeds managers and the pragmatism favoured by the fire-fighters, the latter being an option that starts to look appealing to any club in deep trouble.
And Leeds are definitely in trouble. They have sunk to 19th in the Premier League thanks to a run of ten matches without a win, picking up five points in that time and scoring just six times in their last nine.
In fact, they have won fewer matches (four) than anyone in the division and no matter who is in charge they are strong favourites to fall back to the Championship after three seasons in the top flight. Gracia keeping this side afloat will match anything the Spaniard has previously achieved in the game.
Premier League Relegation odds (via Sky Bet)
- Bournemouth - 1/3
- Southampton - 4/9
- Leeds - 5/4
- Everton - 13/8
- Nottingham Forest - 9/4
- Wolves - 7/2
- West Ham - 4/1
Odds correct at 1730 (22/02/23)
Gracia adaptive
One of the most important things to note about Gracia is his flexibility, not only in tactics – choosing to adapt to the style of the squad he inherits, rather than impose a vision – but in how he deals with people.
He is a calm and collected person in the dugout and in the dressing room, generally forming strong bonds with players who enjoy the atmosphere of mutual respect he generates. That, alone, makes him stand out from Marsch.
It has also brought Gracia decent results everywhere he has been. The early years of his career were hit and miss although Gracia did achieve two promotions, taking Cadiz up to the second tier of Spanish football before gaining Almeria promotion to La Liga in 2012/13.
He then joined Osasuna, but took them down in 18th during his only season in charge, before earning consecutive top-ten finishes with Malaga and enduring a tough solitary year at Ruben Kazan in Russia.
It has been a mixed bag, but generally strong, up until he signed for Watford in January 2018 - which is the period most relevant to Leeds supporters, and most important for our analysis.
One can safely assume that it is his 2018/19 season here, when Watford came 11th and reached the FA Cup final, that put him on Radrizzani’s radar.
Spaniard can provide calmness in chaos
Although his Watford rarely entertained, they were an effective pressing team whose diligent hard work off the ball ensured their Premier League survival. Gracia believes in a high press and constant running, with the expectation that his team will win the ball high up the pitch in order to attack quickly and directly in the final third.
This chimes with the work of Marsch and Marcelo Bielsa, although unlike these two Gracia will not risk such a high defensive line, or indeed expect his players to swarm as a team in all situations.
Essentially Leeds will be a dialled down version of their last two coaches, with an ultra-compressed off-the-ball shape applying pressure at sensible times, albeit in more advanced areas of the field than most of their relegation rivals.
While in possession, Gracia teams are nowhere near as attacking as Leeds have been over the last few years. In 2018/19 Watford were fifth bottom for key passes per game (8.2) and finished the season with a -7 goal difference; they were hardly scintillating to watch, but instead careful in possession and keen to squeeze their opponent into hard-fought, low-scoring games.
Leeds fans need to anticipate a more reserved style of football, then, although in terms of team shape things won’t change too much. Watford generally played in a 4-2-2-2 formation in which two powerful number sixes held the fort as two playmakers moved forward, creating a box-shape midfield to support the split strikers. Marsch has regularly deployed this 4-2-2-2, derived from the Red Bull model of hard pressing and sharp transitions.
Lack of quality may be decisive
To return that flexibility and pragmatism, Gracia will likely incorporate some of the skills the Leeds players have absorbed over the last five years, meaning the hard-pressing 4-2-2-2 is highly likely to stay in place. But as with Marco Silva a Watford, a then-attacking manager whom Gracia replaced, the new Leeds boss will work quickly to slow things down and normalise some of the wild football.
That is no bad thing. Leeds possess one of the weakest first XI's in the division and they did very well to stay up last year, before subsequently losing their two best players in Kalvin Phillips and Raphinha. The team lacks goalscorers, experience, or calm heads in midfield.
Then again, the quality of their full-backs and the tendency of Leeds’s best playmakers to occupy the half-spaces aligns with Gracia’s ideas.
The narrow 4-2-2-2 tends to get its width via aggressively over-lapping full-backs, which should mean Luke Ayling and Junior Firpo are given a boost. Elsewhere Jack Harrison and Brendan Aaronson may find a new lease of life as the advanced players in the box-shaped midfield, where they will have two deep-lying midfielders to thread passes through the lines.
This inversion of the width sought by Marsch may also help Leeds’ faster players, and we can anticipate new roles for Wilfried Gnonto and Luis Sinisterra as the strikers in Gracia’s system. Both players are hugely talented yet both have looked a little isolated on the wings of late, so a move into central areas – where they can look to run into space after a high turnover – might revitalise their respective seasons.
Nevertheless, relegation seems likely.
Gracia is a sound appointment; a considered halfway point between the chaos of Marsch and the brutal defensive style of a traditional survival expert. But Leeds are simply among the three worst teams in this division.
It took a miracle-worker in Bielsa to get them up and make them competitive. Gracia, like Marsch, probably won’t be able to reach those heights.