A crazy Sky Bet League One season comes to a head at Saturday lunchtime - with promotion, play-off and relegation spots all still to be decided. Michael Beardmore analyses the lot, and even throws in a best bet.
Football betting tips: League One final-day
1pt Gillingham to stay up at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Undecided. Unclear. Unsettled. Up in the air. Has there ever been a final-day like the one in prospect in Sky Bet League One this weekend?
Other than bottom side Crewe's demotion back to the fourth tier and the top three's assurance of at least a play-off spot, nothing else is mathematically set in stone ahead of Saturday's early 12:30 BST kick-offs.
The title, two automatic promotion places, three play-off positions and three relegation spots will all be decided.
While it would take a minor miracle to prevent a Wigan promotion - and an inconceivable, parting-of-the-waters, 27-goal swing phenomenon to keep Doncaster up - there promises to be a ton of tumultuous third-tier twists and turns on Saturday lunchtime.
Sky Bet League One winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 4/11 - Wigan
- 9/4 - Rotherham
- 150/1 - MK Dons
Sky Bet League One automatic promotion odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/8 - Rotherham
- 9/2 - MK Dons
Odds correct 1200 BST (27/04/22)
Who will be promoted from Sky Bet League One?
Wigan and Rotherham have tussled over top spot for the majority of 2022 and even as recently as three weeks ago it seemed a foregone conclusion they would achieve swift returns to the Championship - the Millers after one season, the Latics two.
But funny things happen during the run-in and the two sides identified as the best in the division by Infogol's Expected Goals (xG) metrics have wobbled like jelly on the plate just as the dessert menu has loomed into view.
What has happened to Wigan?
Let this sink in - until the end of January, Wigan's worst winless run in the league was one game. One! If they failed to win a game, they would win the next.
Now? They are winless in five, shattered by a long season including three relatively deep cup runs and must recover from the psychological hammer blow of letting a 2-0 lead slip to lose 3-2 at Portsmouth on Tuesday night. They should be up already.
The wheels have come off but Wigan have built enough credit in the bank to afford a spare tyre that should help them stutter over the line - they need just a point, and might not even require that, at 17th-placed Shrewsbury to seal promotion.
Even if the Latics lose, Rotherham and third-placed MK Dons must win, the latter with a seven-goal swing to push Wigan down to third. Unlikely? Yes but Swansea pulled off a five-goal swing to pip Nottingham Forest to sixth in the Championship in 2020...
Rotherham run out of it?
Wigan, then, are pretty much up, but Rotherham - whose recent slump makes the Latics' wobble look like a teensy bump in the road - go into the final day in the strange position of potentially being crowned champions or missing out on promotion entirely.
Victory at relegation-threatened Gillingham would seal promotion and they could pinch the title if Wigan fail to win - but this is a tiring Millers side that has lost five times in its past 10 league games, as many defeats as they had suffered in the previous 35.
Gillingham, much improved under Neil Harris, pretty much have to win to stay up - and if they do, that opens the door for MK Dons to steal second spot from the Yorkshiremen, although only a win will suffice for them.
Dons dropping points too
MK, however, have also stumbled just as opportunity presented itself in recent weeks - a 15-game unbeaten run clawed back the deficit on the top two but they have picked up just four points from the past 12 available, losing twice.
And they face the hardest game of the top three on Saturday - on paper, anyway - away at a Plymouth side who must win to secure a play-off place.
The 9/4 on Rotherham to pip Wigan to the title or the 9/2 on MK to steal second from the Millers look value plays here - the trouble is, the fluctuating form of all three sides involved makes it tough to ascertain which, if either, is preferable. Hedge or avoid I'd say.
Sky Bet League One top-six finish odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/33 - Sheffield Wednesday
- 1/10 - Sunderland
- 4/7 - Plymouth
- 4/7 - Wycombe
Odds correct 1200 BST (27/04/22)
Who will make the League One play-offs?
The race for the top-six is slightly less complicated - it's four from three with Sheffield Wednesday, Sunderland, Plymouth and Wycombe chasing the trio of remaining spots.
Wednesday are the form horses, W13 D3 L3 of their past 19, and sit in pole position in fourth place but with just two points separating the four sides in contention, all four know a failure to win their final game could cost them dearly.
The Owls ensured their destiny is in their own hands by coming from 2-1 down to win 3-2 at struggling Fleetwood on Tuesday but they face a tough game at Hillsborough against a Portsmouth side ending the season strongly.
Sunderland are rivalling Wednesday in the form table, unbeaten in 12 and a point back. They should clinch what seems their umpteenth tilt at the third-tier play-offs but face a banana skin trip to a Morecambe side needing victory to ensure safety.
The bookies cannot split Plymouth and Wycombe, meanwhile, Argyle currently occupying sixth spot by the flimsiest of margins, namely a goal difference superior by two.
The Pilgrims have wandered from their path in recent weeks, however - after looking to be play-off certs, they have taken just six points from the past 18 available, scoring just two goals across those six games.
They lost 2-0 at Wycombe a fortnight ago and Gareth Ainsworth's Chairboys, coming to the boil at the right time on an 11-game unbeaten run, will fancy their chances of sneaking in by winning at Burton, who have nothing to play for in 16th.
Sky Bet League One odds - to stay up (via Sky Bet)
- 1/100 - Morecambe
- 1/6 - Fleetwood
- 3/1 - Gillingham
- 50/1 - AFC Wimbledon
Odds correct at 1400 BST (27/04/22)
Who will be relegated from League One?
Realistically, three teams are battling to avoid one relegation place at the foot of the table.
Yes, Doncaster are not officially relegated but are three points off the side, Fleetwood, in 20th, with a goal difference inferior by 27. Donny are down.
Yes, AFC Wimbledon are slightly better off but they still need to win, hope Gillingham and Fleetwood lose, and overturn a goal difference inferior by seven.
The good news for Wimbledon fans? They host terrible travellers Accrington (14 away defeats in 22 this term). The bad news? Wimbledon have not won in 2022. Their 26-game winless run dates back to December 7 - when they, ironically, won at Accy.
Gillingham will be wishing they had appointed Harris earlier, averaging 1.24pts per game, safety form, since his arrival at the end of January. Much of the final-day drama at both ends of the table will revolve around whether they can extend the Millers' malaise.
If they can, that spells trouble for either Morecambe, almost safe but not quite on 42 points or, more likely, Fleetwood, who have won just one in 20 - at bottom side Crewe - and visit a Bolton side ending the season in style (W13 D5 L3 of their last 21).
A point will be enough for the Gills if Fleetwood lose and if you do fancy a punt on the final-day, the 3/1 on Gillingham to stay up should give you a run for your money - that's where my cash will be heading on Saturday.
League One final day best bet
1pt Gillingham to stay up at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (27/04/22)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.