- Jimmy's Punt 25/26: Staked 271.85pts | Returned 307.92pts | P/L +36.07pts | ROI 13%
Football betting tips: EFL Play-off finals
Championship: Hull vs Middlesbrough (Saturday 15:30)
1pt No first goalscorer at 11/1 (bet365)
League One: Bolton vs Stockport (Sunday 13:00)
1pt No first goalscorer at 11/1 (bet365)
League Two: Notts County vs Salford (Monday 15:00)
1pt No first goalscorer at 10/1 (bet365)
Trebles and Trixies
1pt Under 2.5 goals treble at 19/4 (William Hill)
1pt (Total stake) Under 1.5 goals Trixie at 38/1 (bet365)
1pt (Total stake) No first goalscorer Trixie at 1,581/1 (bet365)
The EFL play-off weekend, what many consider to be the greatest few days in the footballing calendar. And rightly so!
Three days where the season boils down to one game for the lucky six sides in the Championship, League One and League Two. Heartbreak for three, promotion for the other half and for one of the second-tier sides, a shot at the big time.
So, before attention turns firmly to the World Cup, I thought I’d tie up the column’s campaign and have one last stab at glory.
The P/L was -9.56pts for the season but it was salvaged by an +45pts antepost haul to officially take it to +36.07pts ahead of this final hurrah.
I'm still stewing over the Lee Ndlovu anytime goalscorer Trixie, the one where he hit the post twice to cost a 76/1 winner. Just let it go.
Anyway, although we have all three individual play-off finals covered on site, I can’t help but feel there’s an opportunity for a little cross-game unders action.
Our reporter on the ground, Tom Carnduff, reliably informs us it is ‘boiling’ in London.
With the capital reported to hit temperatures of over 30 degrees this Bank Holiday weekend, the heat will without doubt have an impact on the tempo of these finals.
Combined with these three fixtures' tendency to be fine margin, I have thrown together an UNDER 2.5 GOALS TREBLE, UNDER 1.5 GOALS TRIXIE and a NO FIRST GOALSCORER TRIXIE as well as covering the latter as singles.
Middlesbrough are the shortest price of any play-off side to win in 90 minutes this weekend at a shade of odds-on but in terms of the unders/overs market, this game in the Championship is the second most likely to see two or fewer goals at 4/5 generally.
Across the last 10 finals, eight have gone under 2.5 goals, six have been settled by a goal or fewer and two have ended goalless after 90 minutes.
So, let's play the occasion and not the teams.
That said, Boro’s wasteful finishing has been well documented, plus they will be without Tommy Conway at Wembley.
Since Kim Helberg’s side lost to Coventry on February 16, they’ve played their part in nine games to go under 2.5 goals out of 16.
According to the odds, the League One match-up is the least likely to have two goals or fewer.
In the 1x2 though, there’s barely anything between Bolton and Stockport. And with both sides trying and failing in the play-offs in the past few seasons, obviously neither will want to repeat that heartache.
And if you thought the League One final was tough to call, wait until you see the one in League Two.
There’s barely anything between Notts County and Salford in the betting, only a point separated them in the domestic season and the unders is the shortest price of the lot.
Historically, League Two’s good for a lack of goals with 1-0 being the most common scoreline in this fixture from 2010 onwards.
The UNDER 2.5 GOALS TREBLE pays out at 15/4, the UNDER 1.5 GOALS TRIXIE is 38/1 and the NO FIRST GOALSCORER TRIXIE is priced at a cool 1,583/1.
I’ll also be covering the NO FIRST GOALSCORER angles with a point as singles for each final. The Championship’s is priced at 11s, League One’s is 11s and League Two’s is 10s.
It’s the same as backing no goals but covers us if the only goals of the game are own goals.
So, here’s to a good season which I hope has a tedious end.
Odds correct at 11:00 BST (22/5/26)
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