Is it right that England are World Cup second favourites?

Nobody does exceptionalism like the English. We are the best in the world at it.

This applies to football as much as anything else. Aside from a wobbly patch in the 1980s, when hooliganism was its peak and English football was a point of shame for a beleaguered nation in the throes of Thatcherism, England has always seen itself as among the favourites to win the World Cup.

So as attention turns to next summer’s World Cup after England closed out qualifying with a 100% win record and clean sheet record, it will be exactly the same story next year.

Except for one crucial difference. This time, for the first time since 1970, England actually are one of the most heavily fancied, if not the, favourites – and that changes everything.

World Cup winner odds (General price)

• Spain - 4/1
• England - 6/1
• France - 7/1
• Brazil, Argentina - 8/1
• Portugal - 11/1
• Germany - 12/1
• Netherlands - 20/1
• Norway - 33/1

Odds correct 0840 GMT (18/11/25)

At least part of the reason for Gareth Southgate’s success was a bubbling undercurrent of resignation; a double think that allowed fans and the media to both expect England to flourish and to feel comforted by the predictability of the eventual failure.

Thomas Tuchel’s team, by contrast, face something akin to what Sven-Goran Eriksson went through, but since Tuchel’s handling of Jude Bellingham tells us he is already taking the right lessons from the Golden Generation, perhaps a more pertinent comparison is with Sir Alf Ramsey’s side of 1970.

England, the holders, were heavy favourites - and they knew it, cranking up the pressure to intolerable levels, leading to the catastrophe of the quarter-final defeat to West Germany in which England blew a 2-0 lead.

But even this comparison falls short of Tuchel’s England, because history tells us that the 1970 team were already fading. It was an era winding down, left behind.

Tuchel’s England are cutting edge. His desire to play a physical, fast, and direct style of football aligns perfectly with the fashion developing in the Premier League, making his philosophy timely as well as well-suited to the players at his disposal.

That the Premier League continues to accelerate away from the rest of Europe also works in Tuchel’s favour. His players are all used to the highest standard of football on the planet and play in the division most likely to dictate the style and tempo of next summer’s tournament. It’s mixture of possession and fast transitions, the hybrid style that has English clubs dominate in Europe, feels just right for knockout international football.

Then there’s the manager himself, surely the world’s best in an international role; a cup manager with a strong history of managing egos. Better yet, it’s a manager finally teaching the English that international football is about building a team, not picking the 11 players in the hottest form at the beginning of each window.

And finally the players. England have never, ever had a team this good. No other nation has one either.

There is an overwhelming amount of quality in every position, with the emergence of Nico O’Reilly, Ezri Konsa, and Elliot Anderson in particular filling in the final gaps.

England have Harry Kane at the peak of his powers. They have both of Arsenal’s corner takers, making them automatically the best set-piece nation at the World Cup. They have players like Cole Palmer, Jude Bellingham, and Trent Alexander-Arnold who can’t even get into the team.

There isn’t a single weakness, not a single aspect of the England set-up that isn’t world-leading. That comes with its own pressures, and yet ironically the nation’s generational egotism means England are (thanks to Southgate’s subsequent detoxification) more experienced than anyone at dealing with that expectation.

For the first time ever, England is right to expect.

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