Inter Milan take on Liverpool in what is one of the most intriguing ties of the Champions League round of 16. Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Under 50 booking points at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
Inter have just been usurped at the top of Serie A by their bitter city rivals Milan, but Simone Inzaghi’s men do hold a game in hand over the Rossoneri.
Inter are now winless in their last two, losing the Derby de Milano 2-1 two weeks back, before a 1-1 draw with fellow Scudetto chasers Napoli on Saturday evening, but the blip is slight, and in truth, probably not something that will be worrying Inzaghi too much.
The Nerazzurri should have enough to end the season as champions of Italy, even if the title race is becoming increasingly more exciting.
As far as Liverpool are concerned, their search for a second Premier League crown will probably have to wait until next season, Manchester City nine points clear at the head of proceedings and not looking like slowing up any time soon.
That is not to say Jurgen Klopp’s side do not arrive in Milan in stellar form, however, currently on a run of six successive wins in all competitions, and though it is crucial Inter are not underestimated in this tie, it is difficult to see the Italians causing the Reds too many problems over 180 minutes.
With outright prices – either to win this particular fixture or to progress to the next stage – lacking in appeal, looking away from the traditional markets could prove fruitful.
One area of particular interest is the cards betting, and specifically in siding against referee Szymon Marciniak taking too many names into his notebook.
In fact, despite the Polish official’s history with Klopp – the German manager was incensed and shown a yellow card as Marciniak refereed Liverpool’s 1-0 defeat at Atletico Madrid in the round of 16 in 2020 – no referee in this year’s competition has averaged fewer cautions per game (3.75).
Perhaps even more pertinent is the fact that these two sides have seen the third fewest yellow cards in their respective domestic leagues – Liverpool averaging 1.29 bookings per match, Inter 1.88.
In this year’s Champions League as well, Liverpool have been shown just eight cautions, including two matches in which no cards were brandished, while only Shakhtar Donestk have been yellow carded fewer times than Inter (7).
Both these sides play with control, both of the ball and of their own emotions – despite the ‘heavy metal’ label which Klopp-ball has been assigned.
Backing UNDER 50 BOOKING POINTS appeals as a shrewd way to approach this match from a betting standpoint, particularly at a price of 5/6.
Inter v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 50 booking points at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Inter 0-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (14/02/21)
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