The situation at Manchester United is getting more interesting while nothing interesting happens. It is also getting more unusual because there is nothing unusual going on.
Ralf Rangnick has been in charge for three months and 17 matches and yet no clear tactical direction has emerged. They don’t press - which is the one thing we thought was guaranteed. They don’t even look dissimilar from an Ole Gunnar Solskjaer team, albeit their off-the-ball shape is generally more organised.
To add to the strange sense of drift - of a team remarkably unremarkable - Man Utd seem to be forever playing the same sort of team and getting the same results. Across 17 games, six have ended 1-1 and five have ended 1-0.
By a quirk of the schedule, not once have United faced a ‘Big Six’ team.
Their trip to the Etihad on Sunday is a huge moment for Rangnick; the first real test of his coaching ability in England against one of the game’s greats, and a potentially landmark test of his credentials.
United are fourth in the table and yet it feels like they’re plateauing. One statement win, one moment of tactical clarity in a big game, might be all it takes for the narrative to swing in Rangnick’s favour.
Manchester City’s recent performances have confirmed something hinted at throughout a campaign of one-goal wins in tight matches: they aren’t quite as good as everyone has been making out. Everton were a bizarre penalty decision away from taking a point last weekend while Tottenham Hotspur’s 3-2 win provided a tactical template that many – starting with Man Utd – will follow.
Here’s how United can cause an upset at City.
Rangnick’s shape can counter-attack with success
Antonio Conte’s method was simple. First sit in a deep and narrow shape to force Man City into stale possession and funnel them out wide, where any crosses can easily be defended. Then, counter-attack using the spaces that open up around Rodri, who is left alone at the base of midfield, to get in behind City’s high line.
We don’t know how Rangnick will approach big games against teams who like to dominate possession, but judging by his defensive shape so far, he will be happy to copy the Conte model. United are more compressed between the lines than they were under Solskjaer (hence conceding just 13 goals in 17 games), but other than that things are strangely similar.
They have not moved the defensive line and they are pressing even less: comparing their pre- and post-Rangnick numbers, United are averaging fewer team presses per game (20, down from 21) and fewer individual pressures per game (265, down from 278).
Man Utd will probably look to shuffle across in a compact shape rather than not pressing the centre-backs and inviting City to break them down. From here, it will be on Bruno Fernandes to ghost into pockets of space around Rodri and launch the counter-attacks as Harry Kane did – something the Portugal international excels at.
In front of him, Jadon Sancho and Marcus Rashford will need to make runs on the inside of the City full-backs to break behind Guardiola’s defence.
Man Utd deployed this exact strategy very well against Southampton recently, and despite drawing 1-1 the long balls over the top for Rashford and Sancho led to one of United’s highest most creative performances of the season according to Expected Goals (xG).
City’s attacking issues give Liverpool the edge
Whether or not Kyle Walker can cover quickly enough to stop the United wingers, and whether Fernandes is in form, will go a long way to deciding the visitors’ attacking output.
But defensively, the outcome has more to do with Man City’s recent form and whether they can find a way to move beyond an emerging issue.
It turns out that failing to sign a striker last summer is a problem after all. Too often City’s football is played entirely in front of the opposition defence.
They need someone making clever runs into the box, because without them the likes of Kevin De Bruyne have nobody to pick out and the defensive job is made simple. Everton were surprisingly effective, as were West Ham, Brentford, Aston Villa, Arsenal, and Wolves – all games Man City were genuinely fortunate to win.
At this juncture it looks as though Liverpool have the edge in the title race for that reason. As the run-in heats up, highly-motivated opponents desperate for points will dig a little deeper to grind out results – as Everton so nearly did.
'McFred' could prove United's undoing
However, Man Utd do have some weaknesses that might allow Man City to get back on track. Most importantly, Fred and Scott McTominay have not been tested under Rangnick and they may be overwhelmed by the ingenuity of De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva.
Rangnick is unlikely to leave Fernandes out, meaning a two-man midfield of the sort this City team – with their focus on the half-spaces – love to face. Will United be able to sit quite as narrowly as Conte’s Spurs did?
The other area of concern is at right-back. Rangnick keeps switching between Diogo Dalot, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, and Victor Lindelof, a move that is likely undermining confidence and leading to some instability on that side.
Considering Joao Cancelo’s prominence this season, his battle with whomever Rangnick starts at right-back may prove decisive.
And yet United fans have genuine cause for optimism. The head-scratcher, given everything that was promised by the Rangnick revolution, is that Man Utd could win at the Etihad for the second season in a row using pretty much the exact same tactical model as Solskjaer.