The 2022 Community Shield clash between Liverpool and Manchester City felt different.
Usually, this match is nothing more than a glorified friendly used by teams involved as part of their pre-season planning. Prior to this season, three of the last five had been decided on penalties and the last time a team scored three goals was in 2014 when Arsenal beat Man City 3-0.
Liverpool’s performance at the King Power Stadium in late July was ominous. The Reds looked sharper, more cohesive and, perhaps most importantly, it appeared as though they had more depth to their squad.
Jurgen Klopp’s side started well, with Trent Alexander-Arnold scoring after 20 minutes, and then won the game with the changes they made.
Darwin Nunez, who came off the bench, won the penalty before scoring the third in added time. Harvey Elliott and Fabio Carvalho both made cameo appearances and were involved in the final goal.
The Reds just had more ways to win.
Can Liverpool turn things around?
Though you shouldn’t read too much into friendlies, it did feel as though last season’s Premier League runners-up looked bigger, better and hungrier than their title rivals.
Few would’ve envisaged the current state of play heading into April.
Manchester City are in a title race but they’re battling for the top spot with Arsenal. Liverpool, on the other hand, find themselves 19 points behind the Citizens and there’s a chance they don’t even claim a top-four finish.
Klopp’s men have scored 20 fewer goals and conceded four more than Pep Guardiola’s side. The Reds have also lost twice as many matches (eight to four).
While previous matches between the two sides have been dubbed as title deciders, this one on Saturday is potentially a season decider, for both.
A loss for City would leave them eight points behind Arsenal with ten games left to play.
A loss for Liverpool keeps them seven points off of the top four with a game in hand.
However, both Brighton and Newcastle have more games in hand. If the Magpies win their matches, the gap to the top four could potentially increase to 11 points.
Given so many teams have been inconsistent this season, that sort of gap isn’t insurmountable but it would be a big ask for the 2019/20 Premier League champions to make up such a gap with games running out.
It doesn’t get any easier for Liverpool either. The trip to the Etihad is followed up by visit to Stamford Bridge before welcoming Arsenal to Anfield, all in the space of eight days.
The Reds need momentum on their side and a win on Saturday would be a positive start as they look to make a late push for a European spot.
Can Liverpool beat Manchester City?
Though the Reds haven’t beaten City away from home in the Premier League since November 2015, their recent record in this rivalry is actually decent.
Guardiola ended a five-game winless streak against Liverpool in December when his side ran out 3-2 winners in the Carabao Cup.
Prior to that though, City had lost three on the spin across the FA Cup, the Community Shield and the Premier League.
Furthermore, Klopp has an impressive record against his City counterpart. They have faced off 27 times and the German has come out on top on 12 occasions while only losing 10 times.
In fact, the former BVB boss hasn’t beaten any manager more times.
There is some doubt over Erling Haaland heading into the game. The prolific No9 plundered eight goals across his last two outings for City but left the Norway camp during the international break with a groin strain.
He missed six weeks with a similar injury last season while at Dortmund so City won’t want to rush him back too soon, not with a Champions League quarter-final clash against Bayern Munich on the horizon.
The reigning Premier League champions are also without Phil Foden for up to six weeks so ensuring Haaland is fit will be a priority.
The 22-year-old looks destined to shatter the Premier League record for most goals in a single campaign. He needs just five more before the end of the season to eclipse the 32 posted by Mohamed Salah during the 2017/18 campaign.
Haaland has been grossly over-performing his underlying metrics this season too. He’s responsible for 42% and his 28 goals have come from an expected goals (xG) total of 22.7.
His sharp shooting in the penalty area has aided City in their title pursuit.
Poor finishing a cause of bad Liverpool campaign
By comparison, Liverpool’s main attackers have been wasteful this season and it is one of the reasons they find themselves in a battle for top four.
For example, only City can boast a higher xG total in the Premier League but the Reds rank fourth for actual goals scored.
They are 11.4 goals down on their xG for the season and, at the top end of the Premier League, a goal usually equates to a point come the end of the campaign.
By that logic, Liverpool are 11 points off where they should be right now - third place on 53 points.
Darwin has been erratic in front of goal this term, underperforming his xG haul by a total of 4.1 so far.
Remarkably, all of Nunez's seven goals this term have come from what Infogol define as 'big chances' (0.35xG+). He's yet to convert a chance with a lower probability than 35% of being converted, and that's despite having 62 such attempts.
Young strikers can be inconsistent so it is too soon to categorise him as a Gabriel Jesus-type attacker - someone who tends to underperform their underlying numbers.
After all, he did overperform last season so this could just be variance.
Salah finishing form a concern
The bigger concern for the Reds will likely be Salah. For the second successive season, the No11 is underperforming his xG.
Last season he finished with 23 goals from an xG of 25.3 - a 9% underperformance.
This season he’s on 11 goals from an xG of 13.9, an underperformance of 21%, and there are still 12 matches to play.
He’s supposed to be the reliable goal threat in the team. The one real guarantee. He’s the one constant in an evolving forward line but he’s been inconsistent this term and Liverpool have suffered as a result.
Granted, this isn’t necessarily solely his fault.
The system has changed, the tactics have differed and his role has flip-flopped between goal-getter and chance-creator.
If he is able to commit to one of these things and both he and Darwin start to finish at an average rate again, a top-four push is very much on the cards.
If it clicks on Saturday, a repeat of the Community Shield could well be on the cards.