England have only ever won two knockout games in the European Championship and the last one was a penalty shootout against Spain in 1996.
They have the collective trauma of decades of inferiority in their rivalry with Germany, the scars visible with Gareth Southgate in charge. Sections of the media are already tempting fate with talk of an easy half of the draw opening up.
Natural English pessimism understandably looks at Tuesday’s second round game and predicts more heartache. But while few fans dare whisper the possibility, it is true to say that England are the favourites: on home soil, against a vulnerable and beatable Germany, and with the perfect tactical strategy to nullify Joachim Low’s side.
Southgate has spent the majority of his time as England manager devising a setup that mirrors how France and Portugal have approached international football, which means defensive security, a deep block, counter-attacking football, and being pretty boring. It is no wonder he has faced so much criticism, but Southgate is right to have stuck with his original plan.
The idea was never to entertain, but to win. To get out of the group stages as winners, with the defence intact and the football entirely uninspiring, was a deliberate strategy – and on Tuesday night Southgate has the chance to show everyone what he has been working on.
A deep-lying 3-4-3, mirroring Germany’s formation, is the way to go, and surely Southgate will be reinstating the system he has used so regularly over the last four years.
He will have noted how poor Germany looked in the 1-0 defeat to France and 2-2 draw with Hungary; how difficult they found it to play with any real rhythm against a deep defensive blockade in both matches, and how awkward they look while caught in transition under Low between the old guard and the new.
More importantly, Southgate will have seen how Germany beat Portugal 4-2, a game defined by the simple use of wing-backs to control proceedings.
Low’s side built their attacks down one flank before suddenly switching to the opposite wing-back, who either received the ball at the far post to create or found space in deep areas for a dangerous cross. Portugal, in a confused and narrow 4-1-4-1, had no idea how to track Robin Gosens and Joshua Kimmich.
If England deploy their own wing-backs they can easily stunt Germany’s main method of attack. Low won’t be able to overload the flanks if England play Kieran Trippier and Luke Shaw here, since it will quite simply give England the width and depth required to get tight to Gosens and Kimmich. But that is only the first stage of how to stunt Germany’s attack. The second is about limiting Toni Kroos.
Germany’s 3-4-3 uses two inside forwards, with Kai Havertz in particular intelligently dropping between the lines to receive the ball on the half-turn. His presence alongside Thomas Muller is likely to pull England’s central midfield pair into deep positions, in turn opening up a pocket of space for Kroos and Ilkay Gundogan to dictate play.
England are still haunted by the memory of Luka Modric controlling the tempo in the World Cup semi-final until Southgate’s side withdrew into themselves and caved. There is, of course, the threat that Kroos can do something similar.
It is important, then, that Southgate plays either Mason Mount or Phil Foden (depending on the former’s fitness) in his front three, ready to drop into central midfield and convert England’s 3-4-3 into a 3-5-2.
The hosts face being outnumbered in midfield at Wembley unless someone with Mount’s intelligence is used in a hybrid role, and while that limits England’s counter-attacking threat it is a sacrifice worth making.
The loss of a forward with the pace and drive to get behind Germany’s vulnerable back three (Mats Hummels in particular is a slow, weak link) can be counter-balanced by a bolder selection at right wing-back. Bukayo Saka’s ability to demand the ball in deep positions, then evade the press and dribble straight through the lines, was vital against Czech Republic – and can be again on Tuesday.
Saka has performed well as a right wing-back for Arsenal, and with Kyle Walker deployed as a right-sided centre-back there will be plenty of defensive experience behind him – with Kieran Trippier capable of shifting to left wing-back to sure up the other side.
Saka, along with Raheem Sterling, can give England the two-pronged counter-attack they need to get behind Germany and ensure England are not penned in for long periods.
That, of course, means losing Jack Grealish from the starting line-up but the Aston Villa captain isn’t a natural fit either in a 3-4-3 or up against one, and would be a better option from the bench. Late in the game, his ability to win set-pieces and Trippier’s capacity to deliver them could make a telling difference.
For all the clamour to get England playing more exciting football, to get more attacking players onto the pitch, and to bring through the likes of Grealish and Jadon Sancho, England’s match-up with Germany is the perfect opportunity for Southgate to prove he was right all along.
A cautious, safety-first approach with a deep block and a nullifying 3-4-3 is the way to go. England, despite near-constant complaints from fans and the media, have spent the last few years being coached to do exactly that.
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.