After five winners across the last seven tips, Jake Pearson's profitable Beat the Market column returns to preview the upcoming Premier League action, attempting to identify early value.
- Beat the Market: 47.5pts staked | +54.52pts returned | 16% return on investment
- Follow @JakePearson_SL on Twitter
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Leicester to beat Newcastle at 12/5 (Spreadex)
Newcastle v Leicester
Chris Wood’s second goal for Newcastle was enough for the Magpies to see off a Wolves on Friday night, a result that took the Toon ten points clear of the drop.
Eddie Howe’s job is more or less done for the season, having steered the club to Premier League safety, and on Sunday they face another team with little to play for domestically.
Leicester are 11 points behind seventh-place Manchester United, and their only real hopes of qualifying for the Europa League next season come through their Europa Conference League campaign.
A 0-0 draw at home to PSV in the first leg of their quarter-final was hardly a disaster, but Brendan Rodgers’ men will have ultimately been disappointed not to take a lead to the Netherlands.
Kick-off time: 14:15 BST, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Newcastle 13/10 | Draw 23/10 | Leicester 21/10
They bounced back with a 2-1 victory over Crystal Palace in the league on Sunday, and it is now four matches without defeat for the Foxes.
This fixture is essentially a dead-rubber, though no one will admit that, and although Leicester’s second leg of the Europa Conference league will have a bearing as to their mood going into this fixture, how much it will really affect the outcome of the game is up for debate.
With nothing to play for domestically, the handbrake is off for the Foxes, win or lose in Europe, and a price of 12/5 about LEICESTER TO WIN makes plenty of appeal in this fixture.
Clearly, Leicester have been below their own recent standards this season, but looking at their recent results, they are not in as bad a patch of form as it initially seems.
They have not lost to a team outside the top eight this calendar year, their defeats coming against Arsenal, Wolves, Liverpool and Manchester City, and in fact, they have only lost two twice all season to teams currently below them in the league.
Their fixtures against teams ranked below them in the league this calendar year read: beat Palace, beat Brentford, beat Leeds, beat Burnley, drawn with Brighton.
In terms of the price, 12/5 stands out as a very appealing offering. Only Norwich, Watford and Wolves have been a bigger price to win at St James Park this season.
The average price for a team to win away at Newcastle this season stands at 15/8 (2.83), so a shift out to the 3.4 on offer about the Foxes looks an overreaction.
While Newcastle have certainly improved under Howe, that they should be favourites against Leicester is questionable.
Side with Leicester to make it back-to-back Premier League victories.
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (11/04/22)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.