Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Everton to win and Under 4.5 Goals at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Jordan Pickford to be carded at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
It has been an eventful international break for Everton, the club being deducted 10-points after breaching the Premier League's profitability and sustainability rules. The harshness of the sanction took many by surprise, and has understandably caused a huge uprising on Merseyside.
Everton fans have planned protests against the Premier League, and while the Toffees feel hard done by with the sanction, it has galvanized the fans and players and created a real unity within the club that Everton have missed since the David Moyes era.
That will all translate to the football side of things too, with Sean Dyche's side already in excellent form of late, winning six of their last nine in all competitions, and though they are currently in the relegation zone due to the deduction, they are only two points from safety.
Everything that has happened over the break can be seen as additional fuel for Dyche, his players, the fans and the club as a whole, meaning it could be a very, very difficult afternoon on Merseyside for Manchester United in what is set to be an electric and raucous atmosphere.
What are the best bets?
United have picked up four wins in their last five league games and sit sixth in the table, but context is required. Those four wins have seen them score two very late goals to beat Brentford, before edging to one-goal victories against Sheffield United, Fulham and Luton.
Not the best group of teams to only scrape past. All in all, while Everton - 14th before the points deduction - sit well below United in the table, the Toffees have been superior to Erik ten Hag's side in every major metric this season.
While their record at Goodison Park this season isn't great (W1 D1 L4), it is worth noting that they rank as the sixth best home team in the league based on expected points (xP), which tell us the performances have warranted more.
It's also worth noting that all of their four home defeats came when they were in a collective finishing slump, and since they've snapped out of that, they have beaten Bournemouth 3-0 and held Brighton to a 1-1 draw.
As for United, they have won three and lost two of their away games, the wins coming against three of the current bottom six, but interestingly they rank 15th away from home on xP, so their peformances haven't warranted as many positive results.
United are also set to be missing plenty of key players for this game, with Andre Onana, Lisandro Martinez, Casemiro, Christian Eriksen and Rasmus Hojlund all either out or doubtful.
The form, data, personnel and the effect of the sanction all point towards an EVERTON WIN, and given United's away games tend to be low-scoring, adding UNDER 4.5 GOALS gives us a nice boost to 9/4.
Given everything discussed around the crowd and the fact I like a home win, taking a punt on JORDAN PICKFORD TO BE CARDED makes a lot of sense.
Time-wasting could catch him out should the Toffees take the lead, and given he has shown in the past he can be hot-headed, don't be surprised to see him extra revved up for this clash.
John Brooks is the referee, and he has averaged 4.88 yellow cards per game this season in the Premier League, while also brandishing four reds in his eight games.
Pickford was carded six times in 37 appearances last season and has already received two yellows in 12 games this term.
BuildABet @ 42/1
- Everton to win
- Jordan Pickford to be carded
- Bruno Fernandes to be carded
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
The case for an Everton win and Pickford card has been made above.
Bruno Fernandes, as we all know, has a petulant gene. His toys come out of the pram on a regular basis. With this expected to be a tough afternoon for Manchester United, it wouldn't be surprising to see Fernandes cautioned, be it from protesting to the referee or making a cynical foul.
He leads United for yellow cards accumulated this season, collecting four in 12 league outings.
Team news
Everton midfielder Amadou Onana is racing to be fit for this game due to a tight calf, while Andre Gomes also has a slim chance of coming back from his own calf concern.
If Onana is out, Idrissa Gueye will likely slot straight into the Toffees' engine room alongside James Garner.
Manchester United goalkeeper Andre Onana is one of a handful of fresh concerns, as the Cameroonian goalkeeper picked up an adductor strain on international duty. Striker Rasmus Hojlund is more of a doubt with the thigh problem he picked up in the win over Luton, where fellow Dane Christian Eriksen departed in the first half with a knee injury.
Casemiro (thigh), Lisandro Martinez (foot), Jonny Evans (thigh), Tyrell Malacia (knee), Amad Diallo (knee) and Facundo Pellistri (knock) are also missing for this clash, while Jadon Sancho's exile is not ending anytime soon, but Luke Shaw is back in training and is in contention to make the matchday squad - the same can be said for Aaron Wan-Bissaka following his illness-related absence against Luton.
Predicted line-ups
Everton: Pickford; Young, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Harrison, Onana, Garner, McNeil; Doucoure; Calvert-Lewin
Manchester United: Onana; Wan-Bissaka, Maguire, Lindelof, Reguilon; Amrabat, McTominay; Antony, Fernandes, Mount; Rashford
Match facts
- Everton have won just one of their last eight Premier League meetings with Manchester United (D4 L3), a 1-0 home win in April 2022.
- Manchester United won this exact fixture 2-1 last season, last winning back-to-back away league games against Everton in September 2007 (a run of three).
- Everton are looking to secure successive Premier League wins for the first time since October 2022, though the Toffees have alternated between not winning (D1 L3) and winning (W4) in their previous eight league matches.
- Manchester United’s 1-0 win over Luton Town last time out was their 20th by a one-goal margin in the Premier League since the start of last season; no other side during that time has more than 13. Indeed, of managers with at least 30 wins in the competition, only Paul Jewell (74% - 25/34), Chris Hughton (73% -30/41), Mike Walker (73% - 27/37) and Alex McLeish (73% - 24/33) have won a higher percentage of their games by a single goal than Erik ten Hag (67% - 20/30).
- Manchester United’s 13 goals so far in the Premier League this season is the fewest of any side in the top 12 places, with Marcus Rashford (-2.9 – 1 goal and 3.9 xG) and Rasmus Højlund (-2.5 – 0 goals and 2.5 xG) the two players underperforming compared to their expected goals total by the greatest margin in the competition so far.
Odds correct 1245 BST (24/11/23)
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