Dale Tempest: Read his latest football betting insight on Sporting Life

Our football betting insight columnist Dale Tempest is backing Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and a draw in M23 derby

Football

Mon March 02, 2020 · 6y ago

Our football betting insight columnist Dale Tempest is favouring Nottingham Forest at Middlesbrough, as well as two fancies in the Premier League.

Boro on the slide

A difficult campaign for Jonathan Woodgate (left) and Robbie Keane (right) at Middlesbrough

At the end of 2019 Jonathan Woodgate was given the Sky Bet Championship Manager of the Month award. His Middlesbrough side had won all four games over the Christmas holiday period, including a 2-0 win at leaders West Brom, and everything looked rosy in the Teessiders' camp.

They have not won a game since, losing five of the eight league games and drawing the other three. They are now one of the favourites for relegation. So is he doing a good or bad job?

Two months ago he was the best in the division, now he is the worst. It just shows the madness of the Sky Bet Championship. With Luton, Wigan and Barnsley now putting good runs together there are now only six points between the bottom seven teams.

I went to the Boro v Leeds game in midweek and, to be honest, both sides were pretty poor but Leeds should have still won by a canter.

Boro have completely lost their way and to add to their woes, club captain George Friend went off injured, as did top scorer Ashley Fletcher.

Old pros Ryan Shotton and Jonny Howson did their best to get the team going and 21-year-old youngster old Hayden Coulson was excellent, but they are a side that is struggling.

Nottingham Forest celebrate a goal against West Brom

Betting wise, I have backed them at 3/1 for relegation. In their last four games, Woodgate's team have achieved an expected goals (XG) rating of 0.56, 0.30, 0.42 and 0.38. Ok, against Leeds 0.56, but the other three games were against fellow strugglers Luton, Wigan and Barnsley.

You would not know where their next goal could come from. On Monday night they play Nottingham Forest who sit fourth in the league, have the third-best away record and have only lost three away all season.

Last time out they went to Cardiff who had lost once at home all season and deservedly took all three points. Ben Watson, Matty Cash, Sammy Ameobi, Lewis Grabban, Joe Lolley and Tiago Silva are serious talents, add to that Brice Samba who is probably one of the best goalkeepers in the division and we have a squad heading for the play-offs at a minimum.

The only reason we get a situation where Boro are favourites and Forest are 9/5 for the win is because of Forest's XG rating which puts them 12th in the division.

Modern football betting is all around XG shot ratios and on Monday we have to take the stats on.

Elsewhere: To be Frank, Blues fans; tough derby at the Amex

Testing times for Frank Lampard at Chelsea

Another manager whose halo has recently dropped is Frank Lampard.

His young Chelsea side were getting all the early season plaudits but are now struggling for consistency and look flat and a bit uninspired.

This week they play Bournemouth who were punched in the VAR face last week at Burnley, but have won their last two home games and are due a change in fortunes. It looks a good time to be playing Lampard's youngsters.

Finally we have to have a play on the draw at the Amex Stadium for the M23 derby between Brighton and Crystal Palace.

Graham Potter's Seagulls are not in great form with one win in 12 games, but they have drawn seven of those and will be happy to draw their way out of trouble.

Their opponents Palace have six draws in their last 12 so, at over 2/1, we have to be on.

Good luck!

Dale's selections:

Odds correct as of 1700 on 28/02/20

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