Liam Kelly previews the first Copa América semi-final between Brazil and Peru, forecasting a comfortable win for the Seleção.
Copa América betting tips: Brazil v Peru
2pts Brazil to win in 90 minutes and Under 3.5 Goals in the match at 5/6 (BoyleSports)
A place in the Copa América final is on the line as Brazil and Peru square off in Rio de Janeiro.
Brazil advanced relatively comfortably in their 1-0 quarter-final victory over Chile, despite playing almost all of the second half with only ten-men after Gabriel Jesus' sending off.
Peru, on the other hand, were pushed to penalties in their last eight tie against Paraguay, edging through after a dramatic 3-3 draw in normal time.
Kick-off time: 00:00 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: BBC iPlayer
Venue: Olímpico Nilton Santos Stadium - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Brazil 1/4 | Draw 9/2 | Peru 10/1
The host nation's win over Chile last time out was indicative of the type of team Tite has built as Seleção chief, a defensively stout unit that has the typical quality associated with Brazil in forward areas.
His side held their opponents to only low-probability shots equating to 0.62 expected goals (xG) in the quarters after Gabriel Jesus received his deserved red card, maintaining a fantastic record in the competition thus far.
Brazil have conceded just two goals from 3.37 expected goals against (xGA) across their five matches in the competition, failing to win only one game, a 1-1 draw with Ecuador after sealing top spot in Group B.
The Seleção may have started the tournament with big wins, but more recent performances have shifted to fit the mould of Brazil's usual process under Tite, understated wins driven by solidity at the back.
One of those big wins came against Peru in the group stage (4-0, xG: BRA 3.60 - 1.61 PER), but it was exactly the variety of game Brazil's coach looks to avoid, despite the talent at hand for such an offensive display.
This is a semi-final match-up Brazil should win easily, though, holding the upper hand over Peru in every department. However, at 1/4 to win in 90 minutes, it would be wise to look for a way to boost the price.
Given their customary unflashy approach, BRAZIL TO WIN IN 90 MINUTES AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS IN THE MATCH makes appeal in what will be a cagier affair than the first meeting between these sides at this tournament.
Peru will look to frustrate Brazil for as long as possible, even if they fall a goal behind. They showed resilience in the quarter-final, recovering from a last minute equaliser to best Paraguay in the shootout, but this is most likely a step too far.
A negative expected goal difference in the group stage (-2.4 xGD) suggests Peru have overperformed to reach this point, benefiting from positive variance in tight-knit games to make the last four.
That kind of display would be enough to keep the score respectable here, a scenario that makes the above selection value in what should be a one-sided clash.
Brazil v Peru best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Brazil to win in 90 minutes and Under 3.5 Goals in the match at 5/6 (BoyleSports)
Score prediction: Brazil 2-0 Peru (Sky Bet odds: 4/1)
Odds correct 2335 BST (04/07/2021)
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