The Championship play-off final pits Nottingham Forest against Huddersfield on Sunday, and while the richest game in football is widely regarded as 'a lottery', the underlying data paints a different picture.
Since Infogol started collecting data in 2014, which takes into account seven Championship play-off finals, the better of the two finalists based on expected goals (xG) process over the season has won promotion in five of seven finals.
In short: the better team usually wins.
This may not come as a surprise, but in one-off matches we would have expected to see a few more upsets.
Norwich were the first team to win the play-off final with a superior xG process in 2014/15 when beating Middlesbrough, with Hull's trumping of Sheffield Wednesday the following season setting a pattern of things to come.
The 2016/17 final between Huddersfield and Reading was statistically the worst match-up of the sample, but still saw the better team win promotion.
Fulham broke the trend in 2017/18 when they beat Aston Villa, but it was back on track when the Villans were promoted the following season ahead of Derby.
It was the Cottagers again who bucked the trend in 2019/20 when edging past Brentford, but the Bees bounced back the following campaign to earn promotion after beating Swansea.
All of this bodes well for Nottingham Forest, who are the team in this season's final that have posted the better underlying numbers, and by a decent margin.
The Tricky Trees finished the campaign with a +15.4 xGD (Expected Goal Difference), while the Terriers only just broke zero (+0.7). All of this means that Forest were on average 0.32 xG (Expected Goals) per game superior to Huddersfield this season.
Worst ranked play-off teams struggle
And things get worst for Carlos Corberan's side from a trends point of view.
Heading into the play-offs, based on xG process, the Terriers were ranked as the worst of the four teams.
Sheffield United (+18.8) finished the campaign as the best of the four, with Luton (+11.5) third.
Since Infogol started collecting data (2014), no team who entered the play-offs with the worst xG process has ever won promotion.
Four of the seven worst ranked teams have reached the play-off final, but all four have lost.
Interestingly, none of those four teams have generated an xG total greater than 0.90.
Sheffield Wednesday could only manage 0.56 in 2015/16, Reading a measly 0.49 the following year, Derby racked up just 0.71 in defeat to Villa in 2018/19 and last season's play-off final saw Swansea muster 0.90 xG against Brentford.
Six of the last seven play-off final winners have won the xG battle on the day, suggesting they were the team who created the better chances at Wembley and deserved promotion.
Goals and chances scarce at Wembley
The average xG per play-off final in that stretch stands at just 2.1 per game, highlighting the cagey nature of 'the richest game in football' given there is so much on the line.
No team has racked up an xG total of more than 1.70 (Hull 2015/16) in the showpiece. Defences are on top, with fewer risks taken given the potential reward for the winner.
It is likely we get another of those cagey finals on Sunday, but the recent trends point heavily in the favour of Nottingham Forest.