Carabao Cup tips: Tuesday's best bets - Chelsea v Southampton; Arsenal v Leeds
The Carabao Cup enters the last 16, and alongside Arsenal v Leeds, Premier League leaders Chelsea host Southampton on Tuesday. Jake Osgathorpe has the best bets.
Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
1pt Marcos Alonso to score anytime v Southampton at 9/2 (General)
1pt Mohamed Elneny 3+ tackles v Leeds at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
Chelsea v Southampton
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST
- Chelsea 2/5 | Draw 10/3 | Southampton 13/2
Barring a small injury crisis up-front, everything is rosy in the Chelsea garden.
They top the Premier League table after nine games, conceding just three goals in that time and losing once, while the Blues have lost only one other match this term (away at Juventus in the Champions League).
Defensively Thomas Tuchel's side haven't quite reached the heights of last season just yet, but their attack is looking more dangerous based on underlying numbers, as Norwich found out at the weekend.
While the Blues are looking to win every competition they enter, Tuchel still does rotate his side in the Carabao Cup. While that may spell trouble for many top-flight clubs, Chelsea's squad depth means that it really isn't an issue.
Southampton are in town fresh from a disappointing 2-2 home draw with Burnley at the weekend, and the Saints don't boast the depth of their hosts.
Ralph Hasenhuttl would love a cup run, but given Saints' predicament in the league, it is highly likely that they will prioritise this weekend's visit to fellow stragglers Watford in the Premier league.
All in all, I expect a comfortable home win for Chelsea, and they could certainly rack up a few goals against a vulnerable defensive side that will likely have some fresh faces.
With that in mind, and the prices about a home win skinny, chancing a goalscorer looks the best angle here.
With Ben Chilwell recently getting his left wing back spot back, starting in all of Chelsea's last three league games - scoring at the weekend - we can expect MARCOS ALONSO to be given a run out.
The Spanish international has scored once this season in six league appearances, but is averaging 0.18 xG per 95 minutes and 1.8 shots per game.
For perspective, that xG/95 average is better than the likes of Demarai Gray (0.16) and Harvey Barnes (0.13) - out-and-out wingers who are higher up the pitch than Alonso on a regular basis.
Considering Southampton will likely be playing a weaker side than usual, ALONSO TO SCORE ANYTIME looks a solid bet at 9/2 given he will fire off a few shots in a game expected to be dominated by the home side.
Score Prediction: Chelsea 3-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (25/10/21)
Arsenal v Leeds
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Tuesday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Arsenal 4/7 | Draw 29/10 | Leeds 17/4
Read Tom Carnduff's full preview here
It's a balancing act between trying to progress in this competition while also giving needed rest to top players. It often leads to reluctance to back individual players but there is one area I'm willing to take a gamble in due to the prices on offer.
Both concern the midfield and at 6/1, MOHAMED ELNENY TO HAVE 3+ TACKLES looks a bet if he is in that starting XI. His only full 90 minutes this season have come in this competition.
He's not exactly prolific in this area but he had two successful tackles in a comfortable 6-0 demolition of West Brom in second round. After coming on at half-time against Manchester City - his only Premier League appearance - he managed one. They lost that game 5-0.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1245 BST (25/10/21)
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