Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
1pt Over 1.5 Leeds goals at 12/5 (bet365)
1pt Ao Tanaka to score or assist 9/2 (Paddy Power)
0.5pt Tarik Muharemovic to score anytime at 15/1 (General)
Xabi Alonso named a very strong XI in the previous round as Chelsea beat League One club Luton 2-0. Given the Blues’ lack of European commitments we can expect him to do the same again, which should make for a superb early season cup tie.
Daniel Farke made a similar number of small changes for Leeds’ win at Nottingham Forest by the same scoreline, perhaps looking to last term’s playbook when a run to the FA Cup semi-finals helped provide the springboard for his team’s strong second half of the campaign and ultimate 14th-placed Premier League finish.
Leeds are unbeaten this season and have lost just twice in their last 16 games. One defeat warrants a giant asterisks given it was a final-day dead rubber at West Ham. The other was the aforementioned semi-final against Wednesday’s opponents, a loss Farke’s men will not have forgotten in a hurry.
Chelsea have been great to watch so far, scoring 10 goals in four matches. They've also conceded at least twice in all three league games.
It's hard to know whether Alonso will be more savvy in a knockout match but many of his team's defensive issues have been about personnel and organisation rather than tactics, including huge struggles dealing with set-pieces.
Arsenal caused chaos from them with only VAR denying Riccardo Calafiori an equaliser. All three Brighton goals came from dead-balls: two from throw-ins and a Joao Pedro own goal from a corner. Even Luton caused problems, having four attempts from inside the area following set-pieces.
This happens to be Leeds’ area of strength.
Only Arsenal and Manchester United (29 and 26) scored more than the Whites' 23 set-piece goals in the Premier League last season. It's been no different this term with three of their five goals coming that way.
Backing the right horse for a set-piece angle is always tricky but the Carabao Cup adds an extra layer of uncertainty thanks to the likelihood of changes. For that reason OVER 1.5 LEEDS GOALS is the main angle at 12/5.
AO TANAKA provided for Jayden Bogle at Brighton, had a goal disallowed for a marginal offside from a free-kick and missed two further glorious chances from corners, hitting the bar with one.
Having started the season on the bench he has forced himself back into the team with three successive excellent performances and it would be a risk to rest him for such a difficult game.
Depending on team selection he could inherit set-piece duty too, making the already large 10/1 for 1+ ASSISTS look even bigger. Given his attacking influence, the 8/1 about him TO SCORE ANYTIME is also tempting, but unless you want to be greedy and back him to be involved in two goals, the 9/2 TO SCORE OR ASSIST is plenty big enough.
Given the set-piece mismatch I'll also have a small bet on centre-back TARIK MUHAREMOVIC TO SCORE ANYTIME at 15/1.
The summer signing from Sassuolo has played every minute in all competitions this season and with Joe Rodon now out injured is unlikely to drop to the bench.
He scored in Leeds' final pre-season friendly against Augsburg and has already gone mightily close once this term, seeing a header from 10 yards well saved against Forest after getting on the end of one of captain Ethan Ampadu's lethal long-throws.
Odds correct at 13:30 BST (8/9/26)
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