Fresh from two Premier League winners on Saturday, Joe Rindl returns, backing Tottenham to cruise past Burnley in the Premier League.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Tottenham to win with -1 handicap at 23/10 (General)
Lads, it’s only Tottenham.
After three consecutive defeats, few would have backed Spurs to edge past champions and league-leaders Manchester City 3-2 at the Etihad Stadium in a thrilling Premier League match-up on Sunday.
Tottenham twice took the lead against City but when Riyad Mahrez equalised in the 92nd minute, most would have thought any hope of all three points was lost.
Up stepped Harry Kane, linked with a switch to Pep Guardiola’s side in the summer, he once again proved his worth, heading home a 95th-minute winner to hand Spurs their first win in four attempts.
The expected goals total may have favoured City (xG: MCI 2.62 - 1.93 TOT), but considering Spurs led for over an hour Sunday, those figures are always likely to be skewed in their opponents' favour.
Essentially, Tottenham rocked up to the Etihad and went blow to blow with the division’s best.
Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
Burnley 15/4 | Draw 13/5 | Tottenham 3/4
Burnley also racked up a surprise win at the weekend. Inspired by 6ft 5in talisman Wout Weghorst, they stormed past Brighton 3-0.
The Netherlands international grabbed the opener as Burnley cantered to just their second Premier League win of the season, ending a 12-game winless run.
It also puts the Clarets’ fate back in their own hands. They are currently five points adrift of safety but have played two games fewer than the majority of their relegation rivals.
Still, they will need to improve their home form, ideally starting on Wednesday. Burnley are six without a win at Turf Moor, even if they have posted fine performances against Manchester United and Liverpool recently.
The Reds squeezed past Burnley with a 1-0 win, while United were held to a 1-1 draw.
Worryingly for Burnley supporters though, the expected goals stats tell a different story. Liverpool won the xG battle 1.17 - 2.17. United came out on top 0.74 to 1.91.
Even in Burnley’s win over Brighton they racked up a total xG of 0.63, narrowly ahead of the Seagulls’ 0.61.
That’s the only time they’ve won the xG battle in their last 12 league fixtures.
Burnley's big win is nothing more than a blip according to the underlying stats.
Whereas I believe Tottenham can genuinely turn a corner with their victory.
Tottenham beat Burnley 1-0 away from home in the EFL Cup in October, and, with a much stronger line up, I expect the margin of victory to be even greater this time around.
Burnley may have limited Man Utd and Liverpool to just one goal, but the underlying numbers suggested both sides should have netted two.
Spurs haven’t conceded a goal against any side in the Premier League’s bottom three this season (they beat Watford 1-0 home and away and Norwich 3-0) so TOTTENHAM WITH A -1 HANDICAP appeals at 23/10.
Burnley v Tottenham best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Tottenham to win with -1 handicap at 23/10 (General)
Score prediction: Burnley 0-3 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (22/02/22)
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