After a 50/1 winner last weekend, Tom Carnduff is targeting two big priced goalscorers as Brighton take on Liverpool.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Joel Matip to score anytime at 18/1 (VBet)
1pt Trent Alexander-Arnold to score anytime at 10/1 (VBet)
Liverpool are 3/1 second-favourites for the Premier League title but you could argue that they are in the driving seat. They sit six points behind Manchester City with a game in-hand and a contest against City to come.
This game being the early kick-off on Saturday - and City not playing until Monday - provides the perfect opportunity to continue applying the pressure on Pep Guardiola's side.
It feels like neither can afford to drop points across the next 10/11 games but fixtures such as this are vital to the Reds' hopes of winning the league again. Considering the contrasting form of the two teams here, Jürgen Klopp's side should justify their 4/9 price for success.
It's an issue with both City and Liverpool contests this season that their presence alters most of the markets. Being such clear favourites for the win tips everything in their favour and most outright or 'main' markets provide little appeal.
However, one route that has proven successful is looking at goalscorers. Mohamed Salah, Diogo Jota and Sadio Mane are all short prices but other players in this Liverpool squad have shown the potential to contribute.
Based on this contest, we're taking the 10/1 for TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD TO SCORE ANYTIME. There is a combination of numbers that have led to this selection.
Only five teams see a higher percentage of shots come from their left side in home games than Brighton (22%). The interesting point here is that Brighton do a good job of restricting opponents to shots from outside the box too.
Arsenal and Crystal Palace (40%) are the only sides who force their opponents to shoot from distances more than Brighton (39%) in the Premier League. On the whole, the Seagulls defend their box well - the 6% of shots from the six-yard box is the lowest of any side.
There is the context that Brighton only concede 12.0 shots on average per game - Liverpool an even lower 8.2 - but it shows that they can limit the quality of chances they are presenting to their opponents.
The above shot map demonstrates, unsurprisingly, that Alexander-Arnold loves shooting from the advanced right-back areas. It also highlights the cluster of shots that come from a zone outside and to the right of the Brighton box as you look at it.
Combine that with the fact he's on set-piece duty and he can strike from a free-kick in suitable range.
You can get 16/1 with Sky Bet on Alexander-Arnold scoring from outside the area, an interesting boost that could well happen, but with 10/1 available on the anytime I'm happy enough taking it with the additional 'safety net' it provides.
A player I've mentioned in previous tipping pieces - and one who has finally found the net in recent weeks - is Joël Matip. At 18/1, I'm also backing MATIP TO SCORE ANYTIME on Saturday.
Liverpool are a side to consider for goals from set-pieces - they remain the best in the Premier League with 15. While Brighton are far from the worst at defending them, their attempts to stop opposition attacks in recent weeks has been laughable.
Fabian Schär netted from a free header in Newcastle's win over Brighton last time out. The weeks before have seen the side struggle to keep out basic opportunities with others almost gifting the opponents the chance to strike.
This has been highlighted in previous weeks and it remains true now. Matip wins more aerials than van Dijk (3.8 - 3.7 per PL game) with more shots too (1.1 to 1.0). Despite this, he is always a much higher price to score.
With an away win such a short-price, it's worth backing ALEXANDER-ARNOLD or MATIP getting themselves on the scoresheet.
Brighton v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Joel Matip to score anytime at 18/1 (VBet)
- 1pt Trent Alexander-Arnold to score anytime at 10/1 (VBet)
Score prediction: Brighton 0-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1345 GMT (10/03/22)
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