Sporting Life
Boxing day best bets Leicester

Boxing Day football tips, predictions and best bets: Premier League & EFL

By Sporting Life
Football
Tue December 26, 2023 · 2y ago

Football betting tips: Boxing Day best bets

1pt Ipswich to beat Leicester and BTTS at 4/1 (Sky Bet)

Already advised:
1pt No goalscorer in Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest at 12/1 (General)
1pt Barnsley to beat Port Vale at 8/5 (William Hill)
1pt Ricky-Jade Jones to score anytime in Peterborough vs Reading at 7/4 (bet365)
1pt Ibrahima Konate to score anytime in Burnley vs Liverpool at 16/1 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Ipswich vs Leicester

Joe Townsend (@JoesterT)

Despite entering the Sky Bet Championship from opposite ends, Ipswich and Leicester have been the standout clubs in the first half of the season, building up a sizeable gap to the teams beneath and threatening to surpass 100 points, something two sides have never achieved in the same second-tier campaign.

Under Kieran McKenna, IPSWICH provide wonderful entertainment.

It's incredibly rare for a team to perform so well from a results perspective while conceding so many goals. The Tractor Boys are the division's joint top scorers along with Leicester but have only the 13th-best defensive record.

They have kept only one clean sheet in their past 12 matches, conceding at least twice in seven of those games. True to McKenna's attacking philosophy though, Ipswich have found the net in all but two of 27 matches in all competitions this season and scored in 43 of 46 League One fixtures last term.

Enzo Maresca's Leicester meanwhile, are supremely effective in both boxes and possess pace and power that a leaky Ipswich defence may struggle to contain - they have scored in 23 of their 26 matches under the Italian.

Ultimately, the 15/8 about a home win feels right on the line of being backable in a contest between teams more evenly matched than the prices suggest, with the market reacting severely to the double whammy of Ipswich's 4-0 defeat at Leeds and Leicester routine 3-0 home win over Rotherham on Saturday.

What should be backed is IPSWICH WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at 4/1.

It represents a mammoth increase on what we are able to generate ourselves when manually pricing a double, and if Town are to get back on track and narrow the gap on the leaders to three points, they are highly unlikely to do so without conceding.

Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest

Joe Townsend (@JoesterT)

Could Nuno Espirito Santo have chosen a much more difficult first away game as Nottingham Forest head coach?

Following a spirited display in his opening match in charge, only losing to Bournemouth in the 94th minute despite playing more than an hour with 10 men, the former Wolves boss takes his side to a Newcastle team who continue to struggle with injuries and away form, while miraculously remaining imperious at home in the Premier League.

Only Luton and Sheffield United have taken fewer points on the road than the Magpies, with Darwin Nunez's late brace for Liverpool back in August all that separates them from a 100% record after nine top-flight matches at St James' Park.

But working under their current constraints, with a dozen or so first-team players missing through injury, this feels like a tricky fixture only a few days on from a bruising defeat at unforgiving Luton.

It was no surprise to see an immediate improvement for Forest, with reaction to Nuno's appointment placing far too much focus on his ill-fated spell as Tottenham manager, and far too little on his highly successful period at Wolves.

During four seasons at Molineux his team was full of pace and power and highly effective on the counter attack, with the basis for that being strong defensive organisation.

The latter will be the first stage in the blueprint for the Portuguese in his early weeks at Forest, which is what makes 12/1 about NO GOALSCORER appeal, a selection which differs from Under 0.5 Goals or a correct score of 0-0 by virtue of the fact it will still be settled as a winner if an own goal is scored.

Newcastle drew eight matches 0-0 last season, four of which occurred at St James'.

Only their opening Champions League fixture away at AC Milan has ended goalless so far this term but an early Boxing Day kick-off, where the usually vociferous home support may take a while to come round, against a stoic Forest has all the hallmarks of a frustrating afternoon for the Toon.

Port Vale vs Barnsley

Joe Townsend (@JoesterT)

BARNSLEY are experiencing something of a paradoxical maiden campaign under Neill Collins, with their promotion push based upon strong away, rather than home, form.

The Tykes have lost just once on the road, winning six and drawing three, form they could only dream of at Oakwell (W5 D2 L4).

They now head to a Port Vale team who initially responded to an opening day 7-0 defeat by Barnsley with an impressive run that suggested they could be play-off contenders. However two victories in their past 14 matches has seen Vale regress to their expected mid-table level.

Regardless of venue, Collins' side have lost only once in 11 League One matches to move to within two points of the play-off places and six of the top two with games in hand and at a pick 'em price of 8/5 a BARNSLEY WIN should be backed.

Peterborough vs Reading

Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff)

Peterborough were excellent in difficult conditions away at Shrewsbury on Saturday.

They went 1-0 down but that was thanks to a wind-assisted cross that found the far corner. They had dominated before then and deserved the two goals they found for the win.

One of those was scored by RICKY-JADE JONES, and he's a value pick to strike again at a price of 7/4.

While a winger earlier in the season, Jones is now operating as their centre forward with Jonson Clarke-Harris on the bench.

He has scored in two of his last three games, with at least three shots coming in each of his last five.

Burnley vs Liverpool

Joe Townsend (@JoesterT)

No doubt buoyed by their win at Fulham, it's swiftly back to Premier League reality for Burnley on Boxing Day with Vincent Kompany's side welcoming Liverpool to Turf Moor.

One win at Craven Cottage doesn't mask the fact the Clarets, second-bottom of the Premier League on 11 points from 18 games, have been pretty hopeless this season, an incredible shame given how entertaining they were while romping to the Sky Bet Championship title last term.

Some of Kompany's post-match interviews have been a tough watch as he has admirably sought to shield his largely young, inexperienced squad from criticism, consistently pointing to their age and the need for patience to allow them to progress.

While that may be the case, what ought to be well within scrutiny is Burnley's appalling record defending set-pieces.

They've conceded the most goals from dead-balls in the division and allowed the most chances and expected goals against (xGA) in those situations.

As a consequence, I'm happy to take the rather inviting 16/1 about IBRAHIMA KONATE TO SCORE ANYTIME.

Following an eight-month drought for Liverpool centre-backs, two have scored their past six games, with Virgin van Dijk finding the net at Sheffield United and Jarell Quansah doing so against Union Saint-Gilloise.

Konate had four attempts on goal in the goalless draw at home to Manchester United recently and given the blistering impact he had when scoring in three successive games 18 months ago, it's a surprise he hasn't scored more for the Reds.

Let's hope he starts on Boxing Day.

Odds correct 2300 GMT (23/12/23)

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