Villarreal head to Munich with a surprise lead. Can they hold on against Bayern? Liam Kelly has two bets for the Champions League quarter-final match-up.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Bayern Munich to win with -1 goal handicap at 7/10 (Coral)
1pt Étienne Capoue to be shown a card at 9/4 (bet365)
Villarreal's win over Bayern Munich last week will undoubtedly live long in the memory of the club, an unlikely result that gives the Yellow Submarine a good chance of reaching the semi-finals.
Not only was it a fantastic result, it was a deserved one, holding Bayern to just low-probability shots (xG: VIL 1.61 - 1.23 BAY) as Unai Emery once again flexed his tactical muscles in a European knockout tie.
Bayern Munich v Villarreal (agg: 0-1)
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: BT Sport 3
Bayern Munich 2/9 | Draw 11/2 | Villarreal 11/1
The reverse fixture at the Allianz Arena will be a much tougher task, however, and the prices reflect that.
While a simple win for Bayern is much too short to be of interest from a tipping perspective, the 7/10 available for BAYERN MUNICH TO WIN WITH A -1 GOAL HANDICAP can be seen as value.
A lapse in concentration was enough to put Julian Nagelsmann's side behind the eight ball in this tie, but Bayern were also sloppy in their first leg against Red Bull Salzburg. A reaction at home was required and subsequently delivered in a 7-1 win.
Granted, Villarreal are more adept at holding a lead than Salzburg, but Bayern are a powerhouse that can dispatch with almost any team at will, especially as hosts.
Bayern have the ability to create plenty of chances at the Allianz, averaging 2.68 expected goals for (xGF) per game in the Bundesliga and 3.25 xGF in the Champions League this season.
Even if Bayern edge ahead by one goal, Villarreal will sit and soak up pressure considering they would still be in the tie. Back the home side to advance in normal time with this bet.
I also have a mind to stick with the same selection I made in the preview for last week's first leg — ETIENNE CAPOUE TO BE SHOWN A CARD. Available at a slightly slimmer 11/5 this week, the former Watford and Tottenham man is favoured to get his name in the book.
The evidence behind the choice remains the same. Capoue has received more yellow cards than any of his teammates in La Liga this season.
While he only has one booking in the Champions League this term, the 33-year-old has committed a team-high 16 fouls in the competition, far more than any other Villarreal player.
With no fear of being suspended for the next match, if indeed there is one for Villarreal, Capoue is free to frustrate Bayern and hopefully pick up a card.
Bayern Munich v Villarreal best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Bayern Munich to win with -1 goal handicap at 7/10 (Coral)
- 1pt Étienne Capoue to be shown a card at 9/4 (bet365)
Score prediction: Bayern Munich 3-0 Villarreal (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1230 GMT (11/04/21)
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