Football betting tips: Europa Conference League
1pt Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals at 9/4 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Antonio Ivancic to score first at 55/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair) (1-5 places, 1/3 odds)
Unai Emery is supposed to be a cup specialist, right?
It's all gone a bit upside-down and about-face for the multiple-time Europa League winner.
His Aston Villa side have made a strong start to the Premier League season, sitting fifth, just three points off top spot, after five wins in seven games - but tumbled out of the Carabao Cup to struggling Everton and lost their opener in Europe too.
That loss to Legia Warsaw a fortnight ago makes this game against Bosnian unknowns Mostar must-win if Villa are to justify their tag as outright favourites for this competition and keep claret and blue ribbons on the trophy West Ham won last year.
What are the best bets?
I can't shake the feeling the visitors are being underestimated here by the bookmakers.
They have won their domestic league by 27 and 20 points respectively in the past two campaigns. Okay, the Bosnian-Herzegovinian top flight is no great shakes but they have been competitive in Europe too.
Four times in recent years they have lost by one goal on aggregate in Champions League qualifiers and they took Czech side Slovan Bratislava to penalties in the final Conference League qualifying round last year. No mugs at all.
But the biggest flag in favour of the visitors is the most recent one - when Villa were losing in Warsaw, Mostar were coming from 3-0 behind at half-time to stun AZ Alkmaar, flying high in second place in the Dutch Eredivisie, 4-3. Some result.
I toyed with the top price 28/1 on the visitors or the 7/1 double chance - and, by all means, have a look if you like your long shots - but I just feel Villa, in front of their home fans, with Emery in the dugout, will probably be too strong.
But I want to get the visitors onside in some capacity and BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE AND OVER 2.5 GOALS looks a good way to do considering Villa will likely rotate to some extent and are vulnerable defensively even if they don't.
Their only clean sheets this season have been against Everton and Chelsea - two sides underperforming their Expected Goals (xG) more than anyone - as well as a pair of shut-outs against hapless Hibernian in the Conference League qualifiers.
Their high line is high-risk and when they win under Emery, they more often do so 'to one' than 'to nil'. Mostar have won 6-2 and 4-3 in Europe this season and I fancy they will trouble the scoreboard in the West Midlands, albeit in a losing effort.
To that extent, and with Villa goalscorers priced short across the board, I'm also having small stakes on a Mostar scorer, ignoring their strikers as it's not totally certain who they will start up front (see team news below).
Instead, I like the look of attacking midfielder ANTONIO IVANCIC TO SCORE FIRST at 55/1. Villa have fallen behind in four of their past six and near ever-present Ivancic has scored twice already in Europe this term.
He's 66s in places but those are win-only so I'll take 55s with Paddy Power and Betfair to provide each way value of a third of the odds if he's among the first five scorers.
- Both Teams To Score
- 2+ Zrinjski Mostar corners
- Youri Tielemans to score from outside the penalty area
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Villa's high line should give Mostar enough chances to counter and win at least a couple of corners if they are as competitive as recent European results suggest.
Youri Tielemans is likely to start as Emery rotates his XI and of the midfielder's past 46 shots for clubs and country, 40 have been from outside the box. He scored twice from distance last season and could let fly if the visitors drop deep.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3-1 Zrinjski Mostar (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Team news
Moussa Diaby and Boubacar Kamara were both taken off in Saturday's 6-1 Premier League thrashing of Brighton at Villa Park and will require late fitness tests, although both are expected to pass them and be available.
But Leon Bailey (thigh) and Alex Moreno (hamstring) will miss out while Tyrone Mings and Emi Buendia (both knee) are on the shelf for several months.
Emery is likely to slightly shuffle his pack as he did in the group-stage opener in Poland, which should mean game time for Tielemans, Jhon Duran (above) and Jacon Ramsey among others. In-form Ollie Watkins could start on the bench.
Visitors Mostar's biggest selection dilemma is whether to start 10-goal top scorer Nemanja Bilbija or Tomislav Kis, who has netted three goals in his past two games, up front given they are likely to deploy a lone striker.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa: Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Lenglet, Digne, Kamara, Tielemans, Ramsey, McGinn, Diaby, Duran
Zrinjski Mostar: Maric, Corluka, Radic, Jakovljevic, Memija, Ivancic, Balic, Kozulj, Hrvanovic, Ticinovic, Kis
Odds correct at 1230 BST (04/10/23)
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