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Who will reach the World Matchplay semi-finals?
Who will reach the World Matchplay semi-finals?

World Matchplay darts: Thursday quarter-final predictions, odds, betting tips, accas, order of play & TV times

By Chris Hammer
Darts
Thu July 23, 2020 · 5y ago

The quarter-finals of the Betfred World Matchplay get under way on Thursday and our tipster Chris Hammer previews both games with predictions, tips and stats.

The first semi-final will be known after tonight, with the odds just about suggesting that it will be Michael Smith facing his former mentor Gary Anderson on Saturday night.

But after what we saw from Simon Whitlock against Michael van Gerwen, as well as the sensational performances of Krzysztof Ratajski, who would really be surprised if the opposite line-up came to fruition?

Here's my preview of the action...

World Matchplay: Thursday July 23

SUGGESTED DOUBLE

EVENING SESSION

Krzysztof Ratajski (10/11) v Michael Smith (4/5)

  • Head-to-head: 4-3
  • 2020 Meetings: 0-0
  • Career PDC titles: 8-10 (TV: 0-1)
  • Titles this season: 2-0 (TV: 0-0)
  • PDC Order of Merit: 13th - 5th
  • ProTour Order of Merit: 3rd - 15th
  • Tournament Average: 102.65 - 97
  • Tournament Best: 107.53 - 101.02
  • Total 180s: 10 - 14
  • 100+ checkouts (Highest): 6 (130) - 6 (124)

My two remaining outright each-way tips meet in the first of tonight's quarter-finals so at least anyone who followed is guaranteed at least one semi-finalist and a pretty solid chance of an eventual payout.

Obviously I'm not going to get carried away here because as we've already seen in this tournament, anything can happen in darts and perhaps the best bet of all might end up being those who backed Simon Whitlock at 150/1. And I'm not even joking.

That said, on what we've seen so far, Krzysztof Ratajski and Michael Smith have been the top two performers in this section of the draw but worryingly for the Polish Eagle, his opponent wasn't even pleased with both his performances.

The new-look Bully Boy, originally tipped at 25/1, seemed surprised when told he'd averaged over 100 in a 10-3 demolition job of Jonny Clayton while he cut a dejected figure for much of his epic encounter with Mensur Suljovic even though he showed tremendous character to come back and win 14-12. Sure, his average of 94.99 wasn't his best but his stats from 9-6 down are the most valuable here.

Smith, who shed over two and a half stone during lockdown, only missed two more darts at doubles after he'd got it back to 9-7 down and when you bare in mind he won 14-12, that's not bad going. He lifted it when he needed to and also ended up plundering four 100+ checkouts.

The five-time major runner-up is desperate to finally end his wait for a maiden major and if he comes through this test then I don't really see anyone stopping him unless he has a bout of final jitters like we saw as recently as the Masters.

But getting past this match is a big if. My 40/1 selection produced the performance of the tournament from a statistical point of view when averaging 107.53 against Jermaine Wattimena in round one and when the pressure cranked up in his next match against Gabriel Clemens, he responded brilliantly.

As explained in my pre-tournament preview and player-by-player guide, he's got a lot more bottle than people have been too harsh to give him credit for and saying he's not a stage man based on a relatively small amount of major appearances could end up looking very naive over the next couple of seasons.

Ratajski, who has won eight PDC titles since the start of 2018, kept his nose in front all the way until Clemens went ahead 10-9 but twice held his throw when needing to save the match before finally getting the job done to win 12-10.

He still averaged 99.69 and landed three 100+ checkouts to double his tournament tally and I think we can expect more of this standard in what promises to be a cracking showdown worthy of the final itself.

I've gone for high 180s in the above Thursday double but as far as match singles/specials are concerned I prefer five or more 100+ checkouts at a bigger 7/4 while the player performance targets for Ratajski are very achievable. The hardest bit is the victory.

Ratajski won three of their four meetings in 2019, but both stage meetings on the European Tour were shared. The one televised meeting was a 2018 Grand Slam of Darts group stage, which Smith edged 5-4.

Prediction: 16-14

Suggested bets: Krzysztof Ratajski to win the match, score over 4.5 180s and checkout over 105.5 at 2/1, five or more 100+ checkouts in the match at 7/4

Simon Whitlock (2/1) v Gary Anderson (2/5)

  • Head-to-head: 17-24
  • 2020 Meetings: 0-1
  • Career PDC titles: 16-47 (TV: 1-15)
  • Titles this season: 0-1 (TV: 0-0)
  • PDC Order of Merit: 16th - 8th
  • ProTour Order of Merit: 46th - 25th
  • Tournament Average: 94.01 - 91.75
  • Tournament Best: 98.11 - 92.95
  • Total 180s: 11 - 11
  • 100+ checkouts (Highest): 0 - 2 (120)

Anyone who has been following these daily previews will know I've had two huge slices of luck with the number of legs markets, most notably when Simon Whitlock's 11-4 victory over Michael van Gerwen brought up "under 15.5"!

Lightning struck again last night when I called under 17.5 legs in Daryl Gurney v Vincent van der Voort at 11/8, writing: "While I expect Gurney to win comfortably, I'm opting for the total legs market rather than the handicaps, especially after what happened with MVG last night. They all count!"

So it probably won't surprise you to see me going for the immoral hat-trick, with under 26.5 legs the call, with the assumption that Gary Anderson will coast home despite the tale of the statistics so far.

In a nutshell, Whitlock performed very well to beat MVG even if the Dutchman was shockingly bad on his doubles and wasn't fazed even when the flames of comeback that everyone expected started to light. He duly stamped them out.

However, on another day, his average of 98.11 wouldn't have even been enough to prevent a sound beating, while he only managed 89.96 in a low-quality first round clash with Ryan Joyce, so let's not get too carried away.

Anderson was also slow to get going during his 10-5 triumph over Justin Pipe, averaging just 90.59, and he also branded parts of his match with James Wade as "rubbish" after battling to an 11-8 victory in which he averaged 92.91.

The 2018 champion, who hit a World Matchplay nine-darter two years ago, will now need to raise his game as he senses an incredible opportunity to defend a huge chunk of his prize money from that year like the darting mercenary. He's desperate for another lucrative title in the twilight of his career and I just sense this is where he's going to raise it. Especially now that he's used to the conditions that he admitted were surreal to start with.

Prediction: 9-16

Suggested bet: Under 26.5 legs at 5/4

Click here for full 2020 World Matchplay draw and schedule

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