"Above all, it must leave Australia with that feeling. Not just the daze of being whacked, but a little extra insult when it comes to the manner of the impact. England doing things exactly the way they want, Australian players doing things the way they think they must. With a massive run chase to face on day four, this England team would be happy to give it a shake. The day three version of this Australian team already looks like a side that won’t."
That was the closing paragraph of Geoff Lemon's editorial in The Guardian after yesterday's play and, although written with more style and panache, it was more or less the same conclusion that I'd drawn after watching two days in which England had the upper hand and Australia offered surprisingly little fight.
A good night's rest did the Australian team wonders as they hit the dizzying heights of 3.5 runs / over, looking largely untroubled on a pitch suddenly bereft of demons. England resorted to 'funky' field settings and trying to lure Warner and Khawaja into making mistakes to no effect and the boot was very much on the other foot when the rain came, with Ali hobbling, his effectiveness restricted, and England desperately rotating their seamers.
Australia are odds-on again - around 5/6 - with England circa 9/4 and on the backfoot.
The response is more in keeping with what might have been expected on Friday and Saturday and Australia will be feeling confident with 'only' another 249 to win in a possible 98 overs and the forecast a little brighter.
Chases of this magnitude are rarely straightforward and seldom achieved, it would perhaps be more surprising if it was plain sailing for Australia than if there is another twist in the tale. Accordingly, the odds about an England victory are vaguely tempting and would offer a position to trade if they can take an early wicket or three. It may not need too much to happen for England to get their tails up again but they will be hoping that there is more life in the pitch or through the air on the final day to give them a helping hand.
It's worth highlighting Sky Bet's price of evens about the England/draw in the double chance market for those confident/hopeful the hosts can recover - and Australia only need to draw to win The Ashes - but with yesterday's recommendation still in-play and largely linked to an outcome along those lines, there's no need to go in again.
Day four betting update
1pt Broad and Woakes each to take 2+ wickets at 5/4 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
Yesterday morning Australia scored 54 runs from 26 overs before lunch and today this freewheeling England side knocked up 130 from one over less with Zak Crawley setting the tone with a crunching four from Mitchell Starc's first delivery.
It's true that Australia didn't bowl as well as England, although Pat Cummins did again lead by example and deserved more than his one solitary wicket, but there may be a little in the old saying of only playing as well as the opposition let you. It's starting to look as though it's been a long summer for the tourists and they were surprisingly ragged, as their fielding was on the first day, and it's no surprise that they're out to 100/30 with England 1/2.
The Australians may have retained the Ashes but they haven't won them in England since 2001 and it's surprising that the motivation of going home as winners hasn't helped them to dig a little deeper but surely only the weather can prevent this series from ending 2-2, to the delight of those who took Richard Mann's pre-series advice to back that scoreline.
The forecast isn't as bad as it was in Manchester but there are still plenty of light showers forecast and it's to be hoped that there's sufficient play to allow England the chance to take the 10 wickets they need for a deserved victory.
Steve Smith looked in fine fettle in the first innings until a rather strange dismissal but batting time, which I suspect this is likely to come down to despite two days being sufficient to chase the target, can do strange things to a player's outlook. If it does come down to that, there may well be some cheap runs on offer for the middle-to-lower order with England likely to keep the field up in the search of wickets.
I wouldn't put anyone off chancing their arm with Travis Head or Mitchell Marsh in the top runscorer markets accordingly but the safer play is to sit this one out, perhaps at least until there's a better idea of what the weather holds.
Stuart Broad has announced his retirement after this Test and Sky Bet offer 5/2 that he will snare David Warner for one last time which holds some appeal, if only for the laughs, and he needs four wickets to overhaul Starc in the bowlers' chart.
That would be a deserving end to a fine career and a fine series but James Anderson looked a little bit more like the bowler we know and love in the first innings and both Chris Woakes and Mark Wood have made a huge impact since coming back into the side and the wickets seem likely to be shared around again.
Broad is around 5/2 to be England's top wicket taker for those who fancy him to go out with a bang but also worthy of serious interest are the specials offered by Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power for both BROAD AND WOAKES TO TAKE 2+ WICKETS EACH at 5/4 and 3+ wickets at 7/2.
Joe Root and perhaps even Harry Brook will be asked to turn their arms over again but the expected rain delays may well ensure that the seamers get a chance to rest their weary limbs and stay fresh enough to turn the heat up on Australia. Let's hope so.
Day three betting update
1pt Pat Cummins to be top Australian wicket taker at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
Yet another topsy-turvy day in this series with Australia starting it at around 4/5 and ending it at 6/4 (England 13/8, now 10/11) with little panning out as anticipated.
Hindsight goes a long way to determining whether tactics (and missed chances - see Carey / Brook, Bairstow / Smith) are deemed to have been deciding factors and, if England win this Test, fingers will be pointed at Australia for a morning session which realised just 54 runs, and that after a late flurry having scored only 35 in the first 105 minutes.
A number of records have fallen and milestones recorded during the series but not many will want to remember a session that saw Australia compile their slowest Test 100 (it took 47.4 overs) since 1990; it was the longest they've taken to hit that total in England since 1981. They may not be fans of 'Bazball' but this was taking their opposing approach too far.
That was not the only reason as England bowled particularly well and the ball did swing significantly more than on the opening day so conditions were far from easy but Australia did seem to tie themselves in knots with Labuschagne seemingly batting himself back out of form and they were grateful to a strong performance from the tail to post a first innings lead.
That lead isn't significant though and England can be expected to move the game along at a faster rate although there's still plenty in the pitch for the bowlers and there's more cloud cover in the forecast until some sunnier spells later in the day.
Ben Stokes might well be batting by then and Richard Mann made the case for a first innings 50 in his pre-match preview and while that didn't collect, the case still stands and the skipper will be determined to level this series. He's 9/4 to oblige in the second innings, as is Jonny Bairstow who could well respond positively to a couple of setbacks as he so often does.
Joe Root is favourite in that market and to be top runscorer but he could be forced to bat at three with doubts about Moeen Ali's fitness and Root may well be exposed to the new ball earlier than ideal so there's a case to be made for taking Root on. The 13/2 about Bairstow being the top innings bat takes the eye on the back of that but there's too much conjecture involved.
I am, though, keen to keep PAT CUMMINS onside as he got scant reward for some fine bowling in the first innings, coming back strongly from a poor Test in Manchester.
Mitchell Starc bowled superbly to pick up four despite a shoulder injury but that may yet be a factor and, with a little more fortune, a similar haul for the skipper would not surprise.
Those who took Richard's advice to back him to be top series bowler may not want to double down as he will probably need a 'five fer' to collect but Sky Bet's 11/4 about him being the top wicket taker in the second innings makes appeal granted the conditions.
Day two betting update
1pt Travis Head to make a first innings fifty at 7/4 (General)
Australia have the upper hand despite the late dismissal of David Warner at a subdued Oval.
There were the usual fireworks for England supporters to cheer during the first two sessions and the usual momentum shifts with collapses of 3-11 in 22 balls and 4-28 in 55 balls with England rolling merrily along at five an over.
That helped them compile a score that was just about scraping the bottom of the respectable total barrel but a relatively untroubled 25 overs under lights from Australia makes England's total look well below par despite Harry Brook's assertions that they were 'pretty happy' with the score.
There's something in the wicket for both batters and bowlers but England will have to bowl well to deny Australia a first innings lead and that's reflected in the match odds with Australia around 4/5 and England 13/8. Moeen Ali suffered a groin injury which was serious enough to prevent him from fielding and the seamers will be hoping that he recovers well enough overnight to enable him to bowl tomorrow and allow them to rest / rotate.
They will also be hoping that there's enough juice in the pitch to produce the sort of delivery that Mitchell Starc produced to dismiss Ben Stokes but the forecast for Friday seems marginally better with less chance of rain and slightly less humidity and it should be a good day for batting. Australia, obviously, will want to bat England out of the game and will be hoping that Steve Smith, who averages 91 at The Oval and scored 121 here in the ICC Test Championship in June, recaptures his form but he's looked atypically out of form.
That's in contrast to Marnus Labuschagne who has slowly played his way into form through the series and will set his stall out to bat all day. Whether he will suffer another lapse of concentration once set remains to be seen but I would be keen to get him onside over Smith in the top Australia runscorer markets (first innings), not that Usman Khawaja can be easily discounted.
However, several firms are still betting on first innings 50s and Travis Head appeals at a general 7/4 as a straightforward play.
Smith's 121 against India was not enough to topscore in that innings with Head reeling off a near run-a-ball 163 and he's continued in good form through The Ashes despite looking uncomfortable against the short ball. He's scored four fifties, three in the first innings, and was only two short of raising his bat again in the first innings at Old Trafford.
Time and again in this series we've seen the middle order flourish after the top order have done the hard yards and there's nothing to suggest that England have got on top of Head despite their bouncer barrage and, if their seamers have suffered a chastening day in the field, Head could very quickly leave them chasing leather.
Preview posted at 1920 BST on 27/07/2023
More Ashes content:
- Fifth Test preview
- Ashes guide to the grounds: The Oval
- Watch: Cricket Only Bettor podcast
- Paul Krishnamurty's In-play betting masterclass
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