Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty is back with his must-read strategies and best bets for the Ashes, with selections ranging from 20/1 to 3/1.
Cricket tips: The Ashes, Australia v England
2pts Adelaide highest scoring ground at 3/1 (bet365)
1.5pts Perth highest scoring ground at 10/3 (bet365)
1.5pts drawn series at 10.5 (Betfair Exchange)
1pt England 3-1 series correct score at 16/1 (AK Bets)
0.5pt Harry Brook player of the series at 11/1 (Star Sports)
0.5pt Mitchell Starc player of the series at 12/1 (Betway)
0.25pt Jofra Archer player of the series at 20/1 (Star Sports)
As no Englishman will need reminding, cricket’s greatest rivalry has become rather one-sided of late. Australia have held the Ashes since 2018, and haven’t lost a home Ashes test since January 2011 - 15 Tests ago. One might, therefore, be surprised to see such close betting ahead of the latest renewal, and it is getting closer by the hour.
This Ashes is, perhaps more than any in living memory, extremely hard to price. I will make the case below for an England victory but equally would hardly be surprised if the hosts run away with it again. That is less a case of fence-sitting than the result of deep mental scars!
Test cricket form
So much water has flowed under the bridge since England were completely overwhelmed on their last tour. Brendan McCullum took over as coach and revolutionised the team’s strategy and mindset. The effect of ‘Bazball’ has been imperfect, and the wisdom of all-out attack remains arguable, but they have become a team which can hit extraordinary heights, scoring at unprecedented rates. It has definitely improved England’s psychology, especially away from home.
At home, McCullum’s England have beaten South Africa, New Zealand, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe. They drew with Australia and India. On the road, they won in Pakistan and New Zealand. Away series were lost in India and Pakistan, but neither without winning a match, and in fairness they were never likely to succeed in those ultra spin-friendly conditions.
The Aussies have won all six Test series since that drawn Ashes in 2023. By far the most notable came last winter, at home to India, coming back from a huge defeat in the opener to win 3-1. Other opponents were nowhere as formidable but all dispatched with ease. Their only blip was losing the World Test Championship final to South Africa at Lords, in May.
Strengths and weaknesses
As India found last winter, a full-strength Australia with ball in hand are the most daunting opponent, especially on home soil. However, they will start this series without Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood. Scott Boland has proven an able substitute, including against England, but Brendan Doggett is an unknown quantity at this level. Mitchell Starc remains one of the most formidable pacemen in world cricket and Nathan Lyon offers a far greater spin threat than anyone in England’s squad.
Starc and Lyon are the two biggest reasons to back Australia. Perhaps Boland too, and the injured pair may return and find top gear. It isn’t hard to envisage England’s top order struggling all series. Nevertheless, those injuries are a big negative to start the series.
With bat, England look superior. The most likeable aspect of this team is a middle-order consisting of Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes and Jamie Smith. World-class, aggressive, very quick scoring and arguably peerless as a middle-order quartet in world cricket. They offer an edge in light of very real doubts about Australia’s batting. So much of their recent success was built on Steve Smith, Travis Head and Usman Khawaja. Smith seems to be in decline, as does Khawaja. Head has had a poor year in white ball cricket. The return to form of Marnus Labuschagne in domestic cricket was desperately needed, given the void left by David Warner’s retirement.
The numbers quoted here are taken from a five-year study sample. Do not expect many draws, if any at all. Rain is basically essential to prevent a result in Australia nowadays. Matches progress too quickly. 19 of the 23 matches in this sample produced results, with more than half (14) finishing inside four days. The four draws were all rain-affected, with three coming at Sydney, which hosts the final test.
Big runs were generally hard to come by. 14 of 23 matches produced less than 1000 runs. Out of 46 first innings, only 10 reached 400 while 12 finished below 200. On that basis, backing ‘unders’ on each first innings run line, and under 200, would have yielded considerable profits.
Low scores seem near-certain in the second test at Brisbane, as it is a day-night match and the pink ball will swing under lights. In bet365’s market regarding which test will produce the most runs, Brisbane is correctly the outsider.
The two to focus upon here are Adelaide and Perth. At 3/1, the former looks underestimated because it has been hosting day-night tests in recent years. The ACG was, historically, a very good batting track in the first innings and we have seen some absolute roads there in the Big Bash. A cover on Perth at 10/3 is recommended as this track tends to hold up well and get easier to score on as the match progresses.
Ashes Verdict
The last Ashes series, England’s draw with India this summer and Australia’s victory over India last winter shared a common theme. That momentum swung back and forth throughout the series. Expect more of the same and a close contest.
Try to get ahead by predicting the momentum. In Perth, England have a golden opportunity to hit the ground running. Whilst Australia are missing two key pacemen on a track where pace is essential, England can go in all guns blazing with an attack spearheaded by Jofra Archer and Mark Wood.
The Aussie batsmen really struggled in multiple recent matches against the pace and aggression of West Indian Shamar Joseph. India’s pacemen also dominated at Perth last year. If England can hit the ground running here, it would spark panic and outcry in the Aussie press, and transform the series betting. Of course as they proved against India, the hosts are more than capable of turning it around.
It is very hard to see draws in at least the first two, and probably the first four tests, before Sydney. It is therefore worth backing series scores involving at least four results. My plan is to go in with 2-2 and 3-1 England, in hope of holding a nice position going into what may well be a rain-affected finale.
Players to follow
One more market that feels full of value is ‘player of the series’. At 8/1 the field, this may not be as wide-open as the odds imply. I expect this to be won either by a batsman with a huge run-haul, or bowler with a dominant wicket-haul.
Among the batters, while I have doubts about most of the main Aussies, Harry Brook’s record is impeccable. In 30 tests, he’s managed nine tons and a further 13 fifties. Critically in Australia, he will avoid the first new ball. Middle-order batsmen do particularly well here and, while they may bat a bit too low down for series-wide targets, both Alex Carey and Jamie Smith are also well worth keeping on side on a match-by-match basis.
Mitchell Starc is for me, the key to Australia’s chance. He remains at the peak of his powers and boasts a superb record against England, with 97 wickets from 22 Ashes appearances. Not a 12/1 chance when his team is odds-on for the series.
Finally, while there must be a doubt over how much contribution his body will allow over the whole series, 20/1 about Jofra Archer may understate his potential as a matchwinner. This Aussie top order looks vulnerable to pace and who can forget his debut Ashes series of 2019, when taking 22 wickets in four matches? After two impressive comeback performances against India this summer, Archer could be England’s trump card, especially this week in Perth.
Posted at 1105 GMT on 17/11/25
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