Chris Oliver previews a fight he never thought would happen, as a YouTube influencer faces a former world heavyweight champion.
Boxing betting tips: Paul vs Joshua
3pts Anthony Joshua to win in rounds 1-2 at 7/5 (bet365)
Even by boxing’s standards, this quite unbelievable.
In a sport that is littered with the absurd and ridiculous, nobody could have even dreamed that Jake Paul would be taking on Anthony Joshua in a professional contest at the end of 2026.
But that is what’s happening at the Kaseya Center in Miami on Friday night (early hours of Saturday morning for UK viewers) and it is certain to draw a huge audience on Netflix.
And most of those tuning into aren’t necessarily doing so because they are hoping for a competitive fight, it’s because they know it isn’t one and they want to see a demolition job.
Like driving by a car accident, people can’t look away from this one and plenty want to see Paul get his comeuppance.
The YouTube star has caused quite a stir since becoming a boxer and has compiled a record of 12-1 by fighting men from other sports or men a long way removed from their peak – or both in some cases.
His social media popularity and marketing skills have seen him do huge numbers in his deal with Netflix, and you have to admire him from that point of view. However, he has rubbed many fans up the wrong way by claiming to be a world class operator and a world champion in the making.
Let’s not forget, the only time he faced an actual boxer close to his prime was Tommy Fury in February 2023, and that is the only time he has lost.
Fury was a light heavyweight novice who probably couldn’t even win an English title and he still handily outpointed Paul in Saudi Arabia.
So, why is Paul getting in the ring with someone much bigger, better and more experienced than Fury in the shape of Joshua? The answer is two things Paul excels in – causing outrage and making a lot of money.
The pair are rumoured to be making in excess of $50 million each for this circus act and what the public think of the contest won’t matter when they’re cashing their cheques.
‘AJ’ may have another reason than just money for taking this fight, and that is to do what many in boxing have been hoping to see for a long time – make sure Paul gets his just deserts.
Joshua fancies the task of ridding boxing of Paul and he really should take care of business with ease here, hence his odds of 1/8 while Paul is as big as 17/2.
To put this in perspective, Joshua is an Olympic gold medallist and former two-time heavyweight champion taking on a 13-fight novice who is much smaller than him. It is a fight that really shouldn’t be allowed to happen, but that’s why it is in Miami as seemingly anything can get sanctioned in Florida.
Enough about the absurdity of the event, what is actually going to happen in the ring? To be blunt, Joshua should destroy Paul and do so pretty quickly.
That is what happened the last time Joshua took part in this kind of novelty fight in March last year, when he sparked out Francis Ngannou in the second round in one of the most brutal knockouts you will ever see.
Ngannou may not have been a boxer but he had pushed Tyson Fury to a very close decision beforehand and he was at least a similar size to Joshua, whereas Paul has to give away a lot of height and weight here.
In typical Paul fashion, there are some stipulations in place but neither the 245lb weight limit nor the eight-round distance should make a difference to the outcome, as Joshua hasn’t weighed too far north of that in recent fights and he is unlikely to need all of those rounds to dispatch of his man.
The only concern in placing a bet for Joshua to end this early would be the rumours on social media of fight fixing, or if Joshua ‘carries’ Paul for a few rounds. However, Team Joshua have assured everyone this is a real fight and ‘AJ’ himself has looked like he means serious business during his media obligations this week.
In theory, this should be a good time to get Joshua, who has been out of the ring for 15 months since being battered by Daniel Dubois and he is now 36 years old. But this should be no more than a tune-up for him before he gets on to the more serious stuff in 2026 and a rumoured clash with Tyson Fury (yes, we’ve heard that one before).
It’s 2/7 for Joshua to win by stoppage here and that could look great value if he does what he is supposed to, which is get straight on with landing the heavy stuff and put Paul in his place.
Paul may have been sparring good heavyweights in camp but it is very different with no headguard and 10oz gloves and he will never have been hit as hard as when Joshua lands his bombs on his chin.
Once the Brit does that, it should be game over and I expect that to be pretty early. Joshua doesn’t just have his own reputation on the line here but that of boxing as well, so I expect him to want to do a job on Paul with an early finish.
A motivated Joshua should really get rid of Paul in the opening six minutes and you can get 7/5 for the favourite to WIN IN THE OPENING TWO ROUNDS, which is too good for me to pass up.
Paul’s mouth looks to have finally run him into trouble and ‘The Problem Child’ has a serious problem on his hands now.
How can I watch the Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua fight?
Friday night's showdown is live on Netflix, with no additional cost to subscribers.
Those yet to subscribe can do so via the Netflix website.
What time is the fight in the UK?
The preliminary fights begin at 9.45pm UK time, but the main card is under way at around 1am on Saturday morning.
Jake Paul and Anthony Joshua are expected to make their ring walks at around 3.30am, with the fight set to conclude before 5am.
What is the undercard bill and full running order?
- MAIN EVENT: Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua
- Alycia Baumgardner vs Lela Beaudoin
- Anderson Silva vs Tyron Woodley
- Jahmal Harvey vs Kevin Cervantes
- Cherneka Johnson vs Amanda Galle
- Caroline Dubois vs Camila Panatta
- Yokasta Valle vs Yadira Bustillos
- Avious Griffin vs Justin Cardona
- Keno Marley vs Diarra Davis Jr
Posted at 1100 GMT on 18/12/25
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Both of these like to go for the knockout and they carry power, but I expect Marshall to have too much on her return to boxing and the 4/1 about her getting a stoppage looks too big to me.