Chris Oliver previews Saturday's fight between the highly promising Vergil Ortiz Jr and Erickson Lubin.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday November 8
1pt Vergil Ortiz Jr to win in rounds 7-12 at 2/1 (William Hill)
VERGIL ORTIZ JR can continue his charge towards a light middleweight title when he takes on Erickson Lubin in the early hours of Sunday morning UK time, live on DAZN.
With things wide open in the division at present, there are plenty of potential mouthwatering contests at 154lb to look forward to and Ortiz Jr could be the best of them all.
Only time will tell, and he first has to overcome Lubin, who is no walkover despite him being available to back at 13/2, with 2/13 the best you can get about Ortiz Jr.
Lubin (27-2) is a good test for anyone and, after being caught cold when knocked out in the first round by Jermell Charlo in his 2017 world title challenge, the Florida southpaw rebuilt with six good wins before running into Sebastian Fundora in 2022.
Lubin almost caused an upset when dropping Fundora heavily in the seventh, but Lubin was eventually pulled out by his corner after nine rounds due to some quite severe swelling in his face.
Again, Lubin has rebuilt well to overcome unbeaten fighters in his last two outings, firstly outpointing Jesus Ramos before stopping Ardreal Holmes in the 11th round in May this year.
Lubin, who has a lovely right-hand jab, can do it on the front foot, as well as use his boxing skills nicely, but he may be coming up against an all-rounder who can do it all just a bit better than him in Ortiz Jr.
Having knocked out all of his first 21 opponents, the Texas native has shown he is more than just a puncher when passing his last two examinations with flying colours.
Serhii Bohachuk brought relentless pressure and while he scored two flash knockdowns, Ortiz Jr boxed his way to a points victory with some smart counterpunching.
Then, in his toughest test yet against Israil Madrimov, Ortiz Jr worked out the problem posed by the former champion and closed the show in style to take a unanimous decision. In Madrimov’s previous fight, he'd pushed the great Terrence Crawford to a close decision and Ortiz Jr arguably did a slightly better job on him than Crawford.
We always knew Ortiz Jr could punch, but now we know he can box as well, and the 27-year-old looks better than ever heading into this latest assignment.
A huge fight with fellow unbeaten American Jaron Ennis could be next for Ortiz Jr, so he can’t afford any slip-ups and, with home advantage in Fort Worth, I don’t expect any.
Lubin can give him plenty to think about from his left-handed stance, but Ortiz Jr had no problems with southpaw Michael McKinson in 2022, and Lubin being a southpaw may not be too much of a factor.
It could be tight in the opening few sessions, as both men look to establish their jab, but the superior power of Ortiz Jr can begin to tell as the fight goes on and he can start to push Lubin back from the middle rounds.
Ortiz Jr’s superb work to the body could be a big factor and, once he gets on top, I think he could wear down Lubin to get back on the stoppage trail. Both of Lubin’s losses came inside the distance and it’s 4/6 that Ortiz Jr makes it three stoppage defeats for him.
However, I don’t expect it to be early and the 2/1 available for Ortiz Jr to win in the second half of this 12-rounder rates better value.
Posted at 0955 GMT on 07/11/25
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Both of these like to go for the knockout and they carry power, but I expect Marshall to have too much on her return to boxing and the 4/1 about her getting a stoppage looks too big to me.