Chris Oliver previews a massive Saturday in the world of boxing, led by Katie Taylor v Amanda Serrano in the first ever female headline bout at Madison Square Garden.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday April 30
2pts Amanda Serrano by decision 7/4 (William Hill)
2pts Liam Smith by decision 13/8 (bet365)
3pts Shakur Stevenson by unanimous decision 5/6 (Sky Bet)
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CLICK HERE to back Serrano, Smith, Stevenson all to win on points at 9/1
Boxing is on a real roll at the minute, and we have yet another history-making event to look forward to this weekend.
Just a week after a record-breaking 94,000 people watched Tyson Fury take out Dillian Whyte in spectacular fashion at Wembley, Katie Taylor and AMANDA SERRANO do battle in the first ever female headline bout at Madison Square Garden on Saturday night, live on DAZN.
The New York venue is sold out for the biggest women's fight of all-time and this is a huge moment for the sport. The female game has come an awful long way over the last five years and is no longer a sideshow or novelty act. Its stars are headliners and the fact they are doing so at the most famous venue in the world backs that up.
Much of that progress has been down to Taylor, who has been the flag-bearer for the females during that time and has been the perfect role model both in and out of the ring. The unbeaten Irish hero defends her four lightweight titles in the Big Apple against what looks to be her toughest opponent to date in Serrano, who brings a brilliant 42-1-1 record to the table and hasn’t been beaten for 10 years.
With New York's Irish sure to be out in force and the Puerto Rican Serrano based just down the road in Brooklyn, the near-21,000 in attendance should create a red-hot atmosphere and they are likely to get a fight to match it.
Taylor on the drift
The bookies have struggled to split them for some time, but the money for this week has seen the local fighter edge favouritism at 4/5 and Taylor now a best price of 13/10, meaning she is an underdog for the first time in her career.
That may surprise some given all she has achieved in the game. Taylor dominated in the unpaid ranks for a decade as she won the world championships five times and famously picked up gold at the London Olympics in 2012. She boasts a perfect record as a professional, winning world titles in two weight divisions and becoming undisputed champion at lightweight, while her army of followers has expanded from within Ireland to all over the world in the process.
However, there have been signs that she may be slowing down of late. She was fully expected to breeze past Jennifer Han and Firuza Sharipova with ease on her last two outings and while she ultimately won well on the scorecards, she was caught much more than we have been accustomed to seeing against that level of opposition and had to dig really deep to prevail last time. Prior to those points wins, she only just scraped by old amateur rival Natasha Jonas in a thrilling 10-round encounter and it looks as though everything is becoming harder work for her now.
She is perfectly entitled to be on the decline a little at 35 after a long career, all under a huge spotlight, and she has been very busy since turning professional five and a half years ago. There are also the two punishing fights with Delfine Persoon in 2019 and 2020, the kind which shorten careers, and she was lucky to get the nod in their first encounter.
All-action Serrano hard to contain
That was the last time she boxed at this venue, and she faces a better version of Persoon on this occasion. Like the Belgian, Serrano also comes forward constantly with a high work-rate, but with more skill than Persoon, and she is undoubtedly a bigger puncher. With the 30 knockouts from 42 wins, the 33-year-old can really dig and works the body and head well with her rapid combinations.
Her sole defeat came via points in her first world title attempt, but since then she has captured world titles at a whopping seven different weights and has moved up and down through the divisions seamlessly as if weight is no issue. She won a belt in a previous one-fight stop at lightweight and although many see Taylor the more natural at 135lb, Serrano is actually the taller of the two and I don't see weight being an issue.
Taylor has to use her excellent skillset here to try and outbox the favourite, utilising her nimble feet and quick hands to get her shots off then get out of range with minimal damage. The very best Katie Taylor is certainly capable of doing so, and it may be that she rises to the occasion for one last classic performance, but the recent evidence points towards Serrano claiming the glory.
If the rugged Persoon was able to draw Taylor into a dog fight, then Serrano will fancy her chances of doing the same and that is exactly where she wants it. Unless Taylor gets her respect with something big early doors, Serrano will be walking her opponent down all night and may be able to march through what is coming her way to land her bigger shots. She is also a southpaw, just like Jonas who gave Taylor a real fright, and facing another 'lefty' is another thing Taylor could do without here.
Serrano is noted for being a fast starter and she is expected to come out of the blocks firing again, which could leave Taylor behind after three or four rounds and facing a real uphill battle to pull it back. It's hard to come by stoppages in these 10 x two-minute rounds when quality operators are involved and this looks highly likely to go the distance, so SERRANO TO WIN BY DECISION is the selection at 7/4.
It won't be easy for her, but she has all the necessary tools in the bag and looks slightly the fresher of the two at this stage.
Confident Smith can land the money
There is a cracking fight on the undercard as Britain's LIAM SMITH takes on Jessie Vargas in a real crossroads fight.
Their records are nearly identical, as Smith's CV of 30-3-1 almost mirrors the 29-3-2 of Vargas, but the similarities don't end there. Both are former world champions in their early thirties and know that a loss here would likely signal the end of any further title hopes.
Vargas would have been much shorter than a best of 5/2 here if this was around 2015 or 2016, when he lost decisions to Timothy Bradley and Manny Pacquiao respectively and gave a decent account of himself against those top-quality opponents. However, he has only boxed five times since, winning two and drawing two, with his last outing in February 2020 a wide points loss to Mikey Garcia. The 32-year-old from Las Vegas has seen better days and has a long absence to overcome, so all the momentum is with Smith.
The Liverpudlian isn't getting any younger at 33 but arrives on the back of stopping Anthony Fowler in a big local derby in his home city and will be full of confidence. Prior to that, he appeared to have done more than enough to earn a decision against the unbeaten Magomed Kurbanov in Russia, only to be on the wrong end of a blatant hometown call. So, despite his advancing years, he is in good form and has been backed into 2/5 this week.
It's hard to go against the favourite, who has activity and size on his side, as a former champion at this weight (super welter) against an opponent used to competing at light welter and welterweight. He isn't the quickest out of the blocks, but his pressure is relentless and Vargas could really begin to feel the lack of recent action as the fight goes on.
Expect the in-form Smith to take over down the stretch and secure the victory that could set him up for another title tilt. Vargas has never been stopped and Smith will do well to change that, so the latter gets the nod to WIN BY DECISION at 13/8.
Go west for best bet
With one huge show on the east coast of America, there is another on the west coast, with the mouth-watering clash between SHAKUR STEVENSON and Oscar Valdez taking place at the MGM Grand.
This fantastic match-up is one hardcore fans have been salivating over for some time now and it is a massive shame it is on the same night as Taylor-Serrano. However, it shouldn't directly clash with that main event and UK fans should be able to catch this one straight after the action in New York, with the Las Vegas bill live on Sky Sports.
Both are unbeaten, with a combined record of 47-0, and have been groomed for stardom for some time, while both are also now two-weight world champions, having each stepped up to super featherweight with a big title-winning performance in 2021.
Valdez dominated and demolished long-reigning champion Miguel Berchelt with arguably the knockout of the year last February, while Stevenson put on a boxing clinic before halting Jamel Herring in the 10th round of their highly-anticipated clash in October.
However, Valdez tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs prior to his first defence against Robson Conceicao in September and, somehow still allowed to fight, looked lacklustre in recording a unanimous decision. He may have been distracted by all that had gone on beforehand, but he is going to have to be at his very best if he's to deny the younger man in the opposite corner here.
There was never any doubting Stevenson's ability and the sublime skills of Olympic silver medallist, but he has been accused of coasting through his fights and only doing enough. However, he showed exactly what he is capable of when presented with a real test as he put his foot down and produced a brilliant all-round display against Herring. With an even bigger challenge in front of him now, I expect an even better version of Stevenson.
His left-handed stance can help negate the money punch for Valdez, the left hook, and this slick, elusive southpaw is fancied to box his way to another impressive victory, this time by UNANIMOUS DECISION, which can be backed at 5/6 with Sky Bet. Possibly the most exciting prospect in the sport, this could be where the 24-year-old really begins the ascent to superstardom.
Posted at 1120 BST on 29/04/22
Taylor v Serrano: How to watch on TV
Taylor v Serrano plus Smith v Vargas as part of a strong undercard is available via streaming platform DAZN, which requires a monthly subscription fee.
Ring walks for the main event are expected at around 10pm local time, which is 3am in the UK.
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