Chris Oliver is back to preview a blockbuster night of boxing on Saturday, headlined by Josh Kelly's big clash with Bakhram Murtazaliev in Newcastle.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday action
1pt Teofimo Lopez to win by decision at 5/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
2pts Bakhram Murtazaliev to win in rounds 7-12 at 13/8 (Sky Bet, Ladbrokes)
Big guns clash in New York
A fantastic show features in New York with the stacked ‘Ring VI’ card at Madison Square Garden topped by a superb clash between Teofimo Lopez and Shakur Stevenson.
In a battle of American stars, the former defends his WBO superlight lightweight title and the Brooklyn native gets to do so on home turf, while Stevenson has already collected titles in three divisions and now steps up another 5lbs in a bid to become a four-weight champion.
This should be a contest of the highest order, although the odds are a little bit wider than expected with Stevenson a 4/11 favourite and Lopez available at 11/4.
There is no doubt that Stevenson (24-0) is a deserving favourite, as he hasn’t even come close to losing so far and arrives on the back of arguably a career-best performance when widely outpointing the previously unbeaten William Zepeda in July.
The Newark man has a fantastic all-round game, with a superb jab, quick reflexes, a solid defence and rapid hands. If this turns into a straight-up boxing match, then he would be worthy of those prohibitive odds.
However, this is most probably his toughest fight by some way, and the underdog is likely to be very competitive, so is there some value in the champion’s unusually long odds?
Perhaps so. Firstly, he is the naturally bigger man here as he welcomes Stevenson into the higher weight division and, secondly, he has the better wins on his record.
Lopez the value call
Lopez shocked the boxing world when defeating the brilliant Vasiliy Lomachenko by decision in October 2020, and he became the first man to beat Scotland’s Josh Taylor with a dazzling display in June 2023.
The reason for his long odds is that he can blow hot and cold, but he has proven to be a fighter who rises to the occasion when faced with a tough assignment and the prospect of facing Stevenson at home should bring out the best in him. On his best form, he should not be an 11/4 shot.
He recorded a comfortable decision victory over another unbeaten fighter in Arnold Barboza Jr on his last outing in May and the southpaw style of Stevenson will hold no fears, as his best two wins – Lomachenko and Taylor – both came against left-handers.
Perhaps crucially, Lopez could match Stevenson in the hand speed department, and his attacks can be unorthodox enough at times to possibly disrupt the rhythm of the favourite.
So, this is an intriguing match-up which is likely to go the scorecards, as odds of 2/9 about it going the distance suggest, and while there is a fair chance of it happening, the 4/7 for Stevenson to win by decision seems too short to get involved in.
Conversely, you can get 5/1 for Lopez to win by the same method and that is big enough to tempt me in. As the defending champion and bigger man with a tendency to rise to the big occasion, he is a very live underdog in a fascinating battle between two of the biggest names in American boxing.
A cracking world championship double-header brings January to a close with big title fights on both sides of the Atlantic live on DAZN.
We’ll start on these shores where Josh Kelly will need to overcome the formidable Bakhram Murtazaliev if he is to become a world champion for the first time.
Since losing to David Avanesyan at welterweight just under five years ago, Sunderland’s Kelly (17-1-1) has stepped up to 154lb to win seven on the bounce and he has home advantage for his title shot at the Newcastle Arena.
However, he has a big task on his hands in the shape of Murtazaliev (23-0), an unbeaten Russian whose heavy hands and relentless pressure make him a fierce prospect for any super welterweight.
Murtazaliev hot favourite to prevail
Kelly can be backed at 13/5 and Murtazaliev is only a 2/5 chance to retain his strap with another success after impressing with some dominant victories against good opponents.
His destructive capabilities have never been more evident than in his first defence his IBF belt last time out against the very capable Tim Tszyu, who was dropped four times by Murtazaliev before his corner threw in the towel in round three.
That demolition job came on the back of his title-winning effort against Jack Culcay in Germany, where the Russian didn’t take a backward step all night and eventually wore down the local man in the 11th round.
He will be looking to do something similar here, as his non-stop aggression and power punching could see the slick boxing of the fleet-footed Kelly fall apart in the later rounds.
Kelly is great to watch when he’s in full flow, as he utilises his lightning-quick hands and fluid movement to outbox and outfox his opponents.
So, it is no secret that the local man’s plan will be to use his fancy footwork and sharp counters to box his way to victory here and he has the tools to do so if at his very best.
A decision win for Kelly is 4/1 but he will need to be punch-perfect for 36 minutes for that to occur and my concern for him is whether he can keep up the pace for a hard 12 rounds.
Can Kelly stay the pace?
The blueprint to beat Kelly has already been advertised by Avanesyan, who wasn’t fazed by the fast start and flashy skills of his opponent and kept up the relentless pressure until Kelly wilted in the sixth.
Admittedly, Kelly has looked better and more sturdy since stepping up in weight, but there are still stamina concerns hanging over him. When taking on Ishmael Davis in September 2024, Kelly boxed beautifully for much of the fight but almost threw it away in the last round when the late replacement hurt him and couldn’t quite capitalise against a fading Kelly.
It’s unlikely Murtazaliev will let him off the hook if he has similar success and the champion arguably sets a much stronger pace than Davis. Murtazaliev does not stop throwing punches as he constantly marches forward and while he isn’t as technically gifted as Kelly, he has a very busy jab and a big advantage in power.
A worry for Murtazaliev is that he hasn’t boxed since battering Tszyu 15 months ago, but Kelly has only had one round of action in 16 months as he despatched of an overmatched Flavius Biea in around two minutes when last seen in June.
Kelly can have success early on when he is fresh and he could be ahead at the halfway mark. However, the relentless pressure of the champion could start to take its toll and Murtazaliev can really come into his own in the second half.
Once Kelly’s reflexes and feet begin to slow, Murtazaliev can begin to find a home for his thumping power shots and, in a scenario not too dissimilar to the Avanesyan loss, Kelly may be pummelled into defeat down the stretch.
Murtazaliev to win by stoppage is 8/11 but it is 13/8 for him to win in the second half of the contest and that is when I see him getting rid of a tiring Kelly.
Posted at 11:45 GMT on 30/01/26
Boxing: Related content
- Free bets to use on boxing
- Ranking the heavyweights
- Official heavyweight rankings
- Big fight TV schedule
- British boxing classics
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.