Chris Oliver kicks off 2026 with a preview of Amanda Serrano vs Reina Tellez, with the former a long odds-on favourite back down in class.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday January 3
1pt Amanda Serrano to win by decision at 6/4 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
The boxing year kicks off in Puerto Rico as AMANDA SERRANO defends her WBA and WBO featherweight titles against Reina Tellez in the early hours of Sunday morning, live on DAZN.
Serrano was originally scheduled to rematch Erika Cruz, but the latter’s VADA test returned an ‘atypical’ result for clenbuterol, and the champion opted to switch her opponent as a result.
A 1/16 favourite, Serrano (47-4-1) is widely expected to bounce back to winning ways after successive points defeats to Katie Taylor, but they were up at super lightweight, and she now returns to her natural weight class of 126lb.
It’s nearly 14 years since Serrano lost to someone not called Katie Taylor and her record at this weight is superb, which is why Tellez can be backed at 12/1 to cause an upset here.
Tellez is unbeaten in 14 outings, with one draw, and won both her outings in 2025, but beating Maria Salinas (27-11-6) and Mayela Perez (20-29-4) is very different to facing Serrano and this represents a huge step up in class for the challenger.
The outsider has plenty of speed and will be looking to outmanoeuvre her older opponent with her fast feet. She doesn’t want to stand and trade with the heavy-handed champion, and I expect her to be boxing on the back foot and look to counter punch.
As for Serrano, she will be bringing pressure and power as she looks to assert from the southpaw stance. She was criticised for trying to outbox the boxer in her trilogy fight with Taylor and, now back at her natural weight, we should see her revert to more familiar tactics.
Having stopped 31 of her victims, Serrano hits hard and she will fancy her chances of claiming a 32nd stoppage victory of her career if she can land regularly.
She should have plenty of time to do so with this being over 10, three-minute rounds, instead of the usual two-minute sessions of women’s boxing, and she is just 4/6 to win inside the distance.
That would look a very solid bet if Serrano were still at her best, but she’s now 37 and there are concerns that she may be on the decline. Her most recent defeat to Taylor was nowhere near as competitive as the first two fights (even though one judge somehow scored it as a draw) and she has had a long, hard career.
The longer format should be no issue for the younger Tellez, and the 22-year-old may actually be better suited to the three-minute rounds, despite it being Serrano who has pushed for it.
Given the huge leap up in class, it’s hard to go with the underdog but she may be quick enough and fresh enough to cause the veteran champion some problems, by proving awkward and elusive for her older opponent.
If Serrano isn’t quite what she once was then the 6/4 about her winning by decision seems more likely and that may be where the value lies in this first big fight of 2026.
Posted at 09:20 GMT on 02/01/26
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Both of these like to go for the knockout and they carry power, but I expect Marshall to have too much on her return to boxing and the 4/1 about her getting a stoppage looks too big to me.