Rugby World Cup: Tony Calvin previews upcoming matches including England v USA

Recommended bets

1pt Canada +20 v Italy at evens

1pt Canada in Race To 10 Points at 7/1

To say that my Rugby World Cup hasn’t gone to plan so far would be something of an understatement.

I can handle the three losing handicap plays at the weekend, as annoying as they were, as I would happily have the same bets again.

If you can honestly say that to yourself after every failed punt, then take it on the chin and move on.

Bad beats, and poor judgement, are unfortunately part and parcel of the betting game, but woeful decisions from the referee – especially when they have the back-up of a Television Match Official and his team – are another matter altogether.

There should have been over 3.5 red cards in the tournament already – how the two Samoans didn’t get their marching orders on Tuesday morning defied belief, and the Russian prop skirted with dismissal for his try-line, clothes-line tackle too – but, as it is, that is a long-term position that hasn’t gone our way just yet.

Anyway, let’s get back to the business in hand.

I wasn’t going to get involved in Thursday’s two matches but then I saw that Italy were still a top price of 1/14 to beat Canada and general 20-point favourites, so I had to take a deeper look.

Now, the worst thing you can do in betting is overreact to any one result, but it is true to say that Italy were little short of dire in shipping 22 points to Namibia on Sunday, somehow contriving to concede the first and last tries of the match to the worst side in the tournament by some distance.

It was an error-strewn and one-paced performance, which lacked any urgency, and it doesn't bode well for their matches against New Zealand and South Africa.

And it may be a portent to problems against Canada, too.

Granted, Italy coach Conor O’Shea has injected a lot of more dynamism into the team, with Sebastian Negri and the impressive Jake Polledri starting in the back-row – it is sad to see a former great like Sergio Parisse continue to be allowed to under-perform on the world stage – but they need to up their game considerably after just a five-day turnaround.

They may well do so but it takes a leap of faith, from this quarter anyway, to back them in any market here after that opening match, different personnel or not. They ship too many points.

Canada are clearly no great shakes either and I’d be lying if I said I have seen any of their recent games other than truncated match video summaries on the internet, but their results of late show that they score points.

They lost 20-15 to the USA earlier this month – they led 12-10 at half-time and were attacking when the whistle blew (they also went down 30-25 to the Eagles in Seattle in March) – and two late tries from their wingers made it respectable in an earlier 33-23 loss to Tonga in Fiji.

They have far more about them on paper than Namibia, with two dangerous wingers in DTH Van Merwe and former Osprey Jeff Hassler, while up front I imagine they will rally around their versatile back-five forward Tyler Ardron, who plays at eight in this game and is an integral part of the powerful Chiefs pack in Super Rugby.

I think they have enough about them to be supported at the prices, but the issue is on which match markets.

The obvious move is to go with a small-stakes bet on Canada +20 (unfortunately the +21 went on Tuesday afternoon) – the stadium is said to be a “compact and intimate venue” and the 48-hour forecast suggests rain is due in the open ground - and their recent head-to-heads against Italy back that up.

Canada only lost 23-18 to them at the last World Cup in 2015 (they were unlucky if my memory serves me well), and either side of that result they lost 25-16 to them in 2012 and 20-18 in Toronto in 2016.

Okay, they are not recent as such, so the relevance is limited, but the overall package is good enough for me to have a small wager.

I also see that Sky Bet are 7-1 about Canada in the “Race To 10 Points” market and that too is worth a tickle.

They led Italy 10-0 at the last World Cup and 12-9 in their last encounter three years ago. Indeed, they were even 13-6 up in that 2012 loss, too, so those form lines are encouraging, however distant.

Italy have their problems, that much is clear, and Canada can expose them to some extent.

England range from 33- to 36-point favourites over USA in Thursday’s other match.

The weather won’t be a factor here as there is a retractable roof – assuming it is working, that is – but I wouldn’t be in a mad rush to side with England given Eddie Jones has rung the changes and left out some big names, for all I like their squad depth.

Furthermore, I thought the USA were pretty decent when I watched their 34-20 loss to Japan in Suva in August. They looked a nuggety, sizeable outfit there who did well to compete after losing their playmaker AJ McGinty in the first half.

They had earlier beaten Samoa 13-10 in that competition too, so I think the 36-point start (Coral and Ladbrokes) is on the generous side, all things considered.

That is the route I would take if betting on the game, but I can sit this one out. England would have had a fair-sized kick up the derriere after a very poor showing against Tonga, 32-point win or not. Perhaps they'll respond to it.

Good luck.

Posted at 1715 BST on 24/09/19.

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