British and Irish Lions betting tips: South Africa v Lions second Test bets
Jon Newcombe of The Rugby Tipster highlights a few of the best betting opportunities ahead of Saturday’s Second Test between South Africa and the British and Irish Lions.
Rugby union tips: South Africa v Lions second Test
3pts Lions to score under 21.5 points at evens (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts under 3.5 match tries at evens (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt: Jasper Wiese anytime try-scorer at 6/1 (Betfred)
0.5pt Ken Owens to score the last try at 25/1 (Betfair)
In games that appear too tight to call like this one, alternatives to an outright punt on the result are worth their weight in gold, which is why we are steering away from hard and fast win/loss predictions this week and looking towards the try scorer and points markets instead. A cop-out? Maybe. But until requests made to Rassie Erasmus’ burner phone for inside info have been answered, we’re hedging our bets.
Erasmus may or may not have an alter-ego, depending on who you believe on Twitter, but the Springbok Director of Rugby/Waterboy is definitely the real deal when it comes to defence. Luke Cowan-Dickie’s close-range effort at the start of the second half of last week’s clash was only the sixth time the Springboks’ line has been breached in the last 10 outings on his watch, and the Lions will have to move heaven and earth again to make any headway in attack in this weekend’s rematch.
In 14 matches from 2019 onwards, the Springboks have only conceded more than 20 points twice – in the first Test against the Lions (15-22) and in the opening match of their triumphant Rugby World Cup 2019 campaign against the All Blacks (13-23). To only concede 169 points all told in that period, at an average of 12 per game, is pretty impressive and reason enough for us to go for the Lions to score fewer than 22 points at just a shade of odds-against.
Cowan-Dickie’s try wasn’t unusual in its method – close-range tries from catch-and-drives are his bread butter – more for the fact that the Springboks conceded a try to a forward from the British Isles and Ireland. Of the 16 tries scored by England, Scotland and Wales players collectively in matches against South Africa since Erasmus took over in March 2018 (Ireland haven’t played the Boks), only three have come from members of the pack – Maro Itoje, Ryan Elias and Hamish Watson.
Looking at the Lions XV for Saturday, it is hard to see where tries are going to come from. Out of the entire backline, Conor Murray is the only player to have experienced the rare joy of crossing the whitewash against the ‘Boks, and the scrum-half, chosen in place of Ali Price, has gone 19 Tests without a try against all opposition. His one and only try against South Africa was five years ago.
As for the forwards, Cowan-Dickie, Maro Itoje, Alun Wyn Jones (from 19 appearances) and Courtney Lawes have a solitary try each in fixtures against the Springboks. Lawes’ try in November 2016 is the only time he has scored in 89 Tests. All this helps support the notion that tries will be hard to come by and going under the TOTAL MATCH TRIES line, set at 3.5, looks the strongest bet.
If you love stats as much as Erasmus allegedly enjoys Twitter mind games, you might be interested to know that the Lions replacements have more tries between them against South Africa than the starting XV put together (six to five) and of the contenders to come on and exploit the tiring Springboks, KEN OWENS may be the man.
The Welsh hooker has scored two tries in seven Tests (29 percent strike-rate) against the world champions compared to three in the rest of his 77 Test appearances (four percent). Owens should get at least half an hour to add another to his tally and the 25/1 on offer that he scores the final try of the game is worth a speculative go.
One of the Springboks’ failings in slipping to a 22-17 defeat last week was how they handled the Lions’ kicking game. But with JASPER WIESE likely to be in the back-field collecting raking kicks or restarts, the Springboks have a better No.8 to deal with this strategy and take the pressure off diminutive duo, Cheslin Kolbe and Willie le Roux.
Wiese is well known to the Lions players and staff for his exploits in the Gallagher Premiership with Leicester. His performances warranted a Springboks call-up and it was to the surprise of many that the smaller Kwagga Smith was preferred for the first Test. If he can control his discipline – and therefore keep card happy referee Ben O’Keeffe out of the game – Wiese could have a massive impact on Saturday. After an ineffective display by sevens specialist Smith, the Springboks have reverted back to the type of player who suits their power-based game far better.
The Lions may know all about Wiese from his time in England but stopping him is a different matter altogether and the 6/1 Betfred are offering on him dotting down looks decent value, even in a game where tries are likely to be at a premium once again. A length-of-the-field classic would be nice but brute force is likely to win the day again, and there aren’t too many stronger ball carriers than the Tigers forward.
Posted at 0745 BST on 29/07/21
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