Jon Newcombe is backing France to get the better of Ireland in Dublin as round four of the Six Nations begins with a blockbuster.
Six Nations betting tips: Scotland vs Wales
5pts Wales (+16) to win on the handicap at 11/10 (bet365)
2pts over 52.5 total match points at 7/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Darcy Graham anytime tryscorer at 10/11 (General)
1pt Scotland/Wales HT/FT at 28/1 (BetVictor)
Scotland vs Wales
- Saturday 1645 GMT
- Dublin
- Live on BBC
Are Scotland three scores better than the layers would have us believe? Possibly, on their day. But, for me, the handicap line for this match (Scotland -16) is the most skew-whiff of the Championship so far. At the risk of being greedy, I think you could bring that line down by five points and still have a good chance of beating the handicapper. But I think the safer option is probbaly the way to go.
When Scotland win a Six Nations match, the margin tends to be in single figures. For all their firepower and attacking intent, Scotland struggle to put a lot of daylight between themselves and their closest rivals. Looking at their last 10 Championship victories, only twice have they won by more than this weekend’s handicap line. One of those was against Wales in 2023 and another against Italy in 2021.
Scotland’s Six Nations winning margins (most recent first) are as follows: 12, 9, 1, 12, 26, 6, 11, 3, 42, 5.
Buoyed by their tremendous performance in defeat against reigning champions Ireland, Wales will be going up to Edinburgh believing they can win, not just prevent a blowout. While we think that might be just beyond them, a revived Wales won’t die wondering and it could be a riotous match with lots of points and tries, as long as the weather holds. I like the look of OVER 52.5 POINTS at odds-against.
Caretaker head coach Matt Sherratt has the luxury of picking Wales’ first unchanged starting XV since the pool stages of Rugby World Cup 2019. With extra training under their belt, they should be able to add another layer or two to their attacking game, which came on leaps and bounds against the Irish and enabled them to lead 13-10 at half-time before succumbing to a 27-18 defeat.
Given that Scotland tend to fly out of the blocks, scoring 37% of their points (42/115) in this year’s Championship in the opening quarter of matches, I expect the home team to win the race to 10 points and lead at half-time. But SCOTLAND HALF-TIME/WALES FULL-TIME looks to be decent value at 28/1 (BetVictor) and could be worth a casual wager. Others have them as short as 12/1 to mount a comeback win.
The layers seem to think that Wales’ performance against Ireland was a flash in the pan, purely an emotional response to a new coach coming on board, and that it won’t last. But the players have really bought into Sherratt’s messaging and methods, and I can quite easily envisage them doing the jersey proud again this weekend.
As for tryscorers, DARCY GRAHAM returns for Scotland and will be eager to make an impression after sitting out the Calcutta Cup defeat with concussion. With three tries in five appearances, including his maiden Test score, Wales are the winger’s favourite opponents, although it has to be said he has only been on the winning side against them once in that time.
He's 6/4 at the time of writing with Betfred, very much an outlier price. Take it if you can but we'll log 10/11 for the record and look forward to what should be a closer match than the handicap line says.
Six Nations betting tips: Ireland vs France
3pts France to beat Ireland at 11/10 (General)
3pts France under 22.5 points at 10/11 (General)
1pt total match points under 37.5 at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Antoine Dupont to score the first try at 14/1 (General)
Ireland vs France
- Saturday 1415 GMT
- Dublin
- Live on ITV
It seems unusual to open up the weekend with the biggest game of the lot, the fixture that will determine the destiny of the title. But here we are. It’s the rugby equivalent of having Fury versus Usyk as the undercard at Aviva Las Vegas. Ireland and FRANCE, the two heavyweights of the northern hemisphere heavyweight division, who’ve finished first or second in each of the last three years, have it all on the line.
The previous 12 Six Nations meetings in Dublin have only averaged 37 points and I expect something similar this Saturday. Ireland’s record 38-17 win in Marseille in 2024 is an outlier in the head to head stats, with over half of the previous Six Nations meetings being settled by seven points or fewer and a couple of draws thrown in for good measure.
With what’s at stake, you’d imagine this latest clash will be typically tight and low-scoring. France could win it without even surpassing 20 points – a total they’ve only achieved once in the last dozen clashes (a 30-24 win in the 2022 Grand Slam season). In fact I'm keen to back them in both those markets, odds-against to win and a shade of odds-on to score under 22.5 points.
That said, we might not have to wait too long for the game’s first try. In four of the last six fixtures between the teams, someone has crossed the whitewash in 10 minutes and under. But a rip roaring start could be followed by an arm wrestle as two hugely physical teams go toe-to-toe.
From 2019 onwards, ANTOINE DUPONT (14/1) has scored the first try twice, and his opposite number at scrum-half, the Lions No.9 elect Jamison Gibson-Park (18/1) was first over the whitewash last year. Dupont gets the vote at generous odds although splitting stakes wouldn't be the worst policy.
France are playing the better rugby of the two sides, which is counterbalanced by the fact that Ireland are at their largely impenetrable Aviva Stadium fortress. However, France’s ability to turn on the style and make something out of nothing could be the undoing of Ireland, especially if Les Bleus can put width on their game and bypass the green blitz defence. Scoring tries has not been a problem for them and while Ireland will be a much tougher nut to crack, they should be good for a couple.
For my prediction of France win to come good, they need to avoid a red card, as it’ll be too big a burden to bear against a power-based side like Ireland. But in an emotionally charged game, we expect there to be cards of some description – referee Angus Gardner, who celebrates his 50th Test, averaged 16 penalties per game in his two Six Nations outings last year – and the stats suggest that it’s more than likely he’ll be ushering a French player to the sideline.
In each of the last five meetings with Ireland, France have received five yellow cards and a red, and have only managed to keep all 15 men on the park in one of those matches. But as long as the colour remains yellow, they could face down one of the biggest challenges in international and come out smiling.
Posted at 1200 GMT on 07/03/25
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