Jon Newcombe runs the rule over the Saturday's matches from the Six Nations, with a series of recommended bets in his staking plan.
Six Nations betting tips
3pts France (-8.5 points) to beat England at 6/5 (Unibet)
2pts France (-3 points) half-time handicap against England at evens (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt Ollie Sleightholme anytime try-scorer in England vs France at 5/2 (bet365)
1pt Tommy Freeman first try-scorer in England vs France at 16/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
England vs France
- Saturday 1645 GMT
- Twickenham, London
- Live on ITV1 and ITVX
According to the history books, England and France have met 111 times in Tests. Cricket fans of an older vintage will know this number as ‘Nelson’, after Lord Admiral Nelson, and it normally comes with negative connotations. But which of the teams will come out on the wrong side of sporting superstition? Steve Borthwick would give his proverbial right arm to get a win, as Nelson did in battle, but it’s my belief his rudderless ship, to shoehorn another maritime metaphor in, will not return to an even keel.
Borthwick’s pre and post-match words often sound as hollow as an empty vessel but the pressure is cranking up on him after a terrible run of results, and he desperately needs his team to be on the right side of this weekend’s result. Any port in a storm will do for Borthwick right now and for someone who is so data-driven, his decision to select Marcus Smith at full-back for the first time in Test rugby can’t be seen as anything but a gamble. Defensively, I expect Smith to be exposed. No one can question his bravery but he simply doesn’t have the oomph in the tackle that a Freddie Steward has, and France will look to expose him physically.
That said, he should create plenty of openings when running the ball back, and that could be good news for Ollie Sleightholme, a winger I rate very highly. Sleightholme was very unlucky not to start against Ireland and comes into the team to replace the injured Cadan Murley. Sleightholme is great at manufacturing finishes out of nowhere and looks to stand a decent chance of becoming the third English winger to score in this Six Nations, after Murley and Tommy Freeman crossed at either end of last weekend’s 27-22 defeat in Dublin. Sleightholme has proven himself in big matches before, so it’s surprising that eight players are ahead of him in the anytime try-scorer market. The 5/2 bet365 are offering could represent a bit of value.
To cover any potential losses, a small wager on another winger to be the first try-scorer looks to be the way to go. In five out of England’s last six Tests against top 10 opposition, a winger from either side has accounted for the first try, and understandably, French duo, the fit-again Damian Penaud (who has four tries in five Tests against England) and Louis Bielle-Biarrey, are joint-favourites at 8/1. If you want a bit more bang for your buck, Tommy Freeman is double the odds at 16/1.
"It's a dream to play at 10 for England!" 🏴🙌
— Sky Sports Rugby Union (@SkySportsRugby) February 6, 2025
Fin Smith reacts to his first Test start at fly-half in this weekend's Six Nations clash vs France 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/CWedNG8eK8
At the moment England seem unable to fix things on the hoof during matches, and tend to do the same thing over and over again whilst expecting different results. In selecting one Smith over another at fly-half, with Northampton’s Fin Smith replacing Marcus at 10, Borthwick has attempted to address this. Smith, who is making his first Test start, is much more of a game-controlling 10 than his Quins counterpart. But what positives you get with having him at 10 are probably outweighed by the negatives that we’ve mentioned of having a light-weight rookie at 15, and I’m struggling to be convinced that England can pull a win out of the bag like they did against Ireland last year.
With a big win against Wales behind them, their leading finisher back on the wing, rugby’s GOAT Antoine Dupont ready to serve up another masterclass, an English defence coach in Shaun Edwards who’d love to hammer home his Lions credentials with another defensive masterclass, and the 53-10 record rout of England on their last visit to Twickenham still fresh in their memories, France will cross the channel with plenty of belief and should be good enough to cover three points on the first-half handicap betting.
England led Ireland 10-5 at half-time in Dublin but that was only the second time that they have turned around at the break in front since the 2023 World Cup. Whilst the average half-time deficit in those matches against the leading sides is only four points, France should have the firepower to be more than a penalty ahead after the first 40 before going on to win by a double-digit margin and add to England’s sinking feeling.
Italy vs Wales
3pts under 47.5 points in Italy vs Wales at 4/5 (Boylesports)
2pts Italy to beat Wales by 1-7 points at 11/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
2pts Taulupe Faletau anytime try-scorer in Italy vs Wales at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
- Saturday 1415 GMT
- Stadio Olimpico, Rome
- Live on ITV1 and ITVX
Taken as a whole this looks to be the hardest weekend of Six Nations rugby to predict for many a year. You might be thinking I’m getting my excuses in early after last weekend’s whitewash when England’s two late tries heartbreakingly turned a profit into a loss. But, let’s be honest, you could easily make an argument for any of the teams to win, which is reflected by the fact that all three match handicaps are tight – 6.5 points or under across the board.
First up, it’s Italy versus Wales in Rome. Two things count against an Italian win. First, they find themselves in the unusual position of being favourites and it’ll be fascinating to see how well that this sits with them. And second, and this one is a bit more tenuous, incredibly Italy have never won a second round match in the 25-year history of the Championship. Sixteen times they have won in 126 matches, but never at this stage of the competition. Are these big enough factors to warrant backing Wales, though? Probably not, not even at a tempting 11/5.
As predicted on this site, Wales got off to a decent start against France, and the score was 0-0 after 17 minutes. But then they imploded and went on to lose 43-0 – the first time they have failed to score in a Six Nations match.
Scoring points is a problem for last year’s wooden spoonists, and while we can see them scoring a couple of tries against an Italian defence that blows hot and cold, it is doubtful they will get enough to win their first match in 14 Tests. Whether they’ll go under/over 18.5 points looks to be a tough one to call. Wales have only fallen below that mark once in 33 previous meetings with Italy (an 18-18 draw in 2006), so the natural inclination would be to go over. But, again, I wouldn’t have any confidence in them achieving that given their lack of ideas with ball in hand.
One damning stat from Wales’ opening match is that they had the ball in attack for exactly the same number of minutes as France yet failed to trouble the scoreboard. Five times they entered the French 22, and five times they came away with nothing. Unless they have found a very quick fix, Wales’ passing in the backline is too lateral and static to break defences down, and Italian centre Ignacio Brex will relish the chance to smash them behind the gainline.
Wales don’t have the game-breaking backs that they once had. Josh Adams is in the midst of his longest try-scoring drought for Wales (eight matches), Liam Williams doesn’t have the gas to cut through defences like he did in his pomp, and Tom Rogers, who was lively against France, has yet to get off the mark.
If, as predicted, Wales do cross the Italian whitewash it will probably be from a rumble close to the line, and talisman Taulupe Faletau is as good a bet as any to come up with the goods. The No.8 is playing his first game for Wales since breaking his arm against Georgia at the 2023 World Cup – the last time Wales actually won at this level – and has four tries in his last 12 caps. Sky Bet's 7/1 for him to score a try has caught my eye, as the other layers are quoting prices three points shorter.
Wales will need to improve their discipline, too, if they’re to avoid gifting Italy an easy foothold in the match. Put under immense pressure by the French, Wales coughed up 12 penalties and lost two men to the sin-bin.
Tommaso Allan’s goal-kicking was brilliant against Scotland and he’ll be ready to step up and punish any opportunities that come his way, which makes him a credible Player of the Match contender, and also for a match dominated by penalty kicking, which makes us veer towards predicting a low-scoring game.
If Italy win, it’ll probably be by no more than a score in an arm-wrestle of a match, so I’m thinking under 47.5 points (4/5 with Boylesports) might be the way to go, with a little side bet on Italy to win by 1-7 points at 11/4.
In the overall match betting, the handicapper has Italy -7.5 and considering the Azzurri’s biggest-ever margin of victory against Wales is eight points (back in 2003), it would take a brave call to back them on this front.
Posted at 1100 GMT on 07/02/25
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