Six Nations tips: Best bets for this weekend's round five matches including France v England

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• 14 winners at odds from 4/9 to 16/1 and +14.17pts profit prior to this week
• Round five began with winning tip - Italy to score first v Wales

Six Nations betting tips: Round five

2pts France/France in HT/FT market at 3/4 (BoyleSports)

1pt Antoine Dupont Man of the Match in FRA v ENG at 6/1 (BoyleSports)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

France v England

Kick-off time: Saturday, 2000 GMT

Venue: Stade de France

Where to watch: ITV

Best bet: France/France in HT/FT market

Key stats

• France are bidding for their first Grand Slam and Six Nations title since 2012
• England could end up with consecutive fifth-place finishes for the first time in the Six Nations
• Just one of the last nine Six Nations fixtures between France and England has been won by the away side on the day, a 31-21 victory for England in Paris in 2016, Les Bleus have won their two home games against England since then
• Two of France’s three Guinness Six Nations Grand Slams have been completed with a win over England in the final round, in 2004 and 2010
• France have lost just one of their last eight home games in the Six Nations, losing at the death to Scotland in 2021 as they chased an unlikely winning margin which could have secured Fabien Galthié’s men the title.
• England have lost twice in this year’s Six Nations and will be aiming to avoid losing three matches in an edition of the Championship for the third time under Eddie Jones (also 2018 and 2021) and for the fifth time overall (also 2005 and 2006)
• · France haven’t trailed at half-time in a home Test match since February 2018 (v Ireland), going into the break ahead on 19 occasions and level twice in their 21 matches since that fixture
• France have scored seven tries from counter attacks in the Six Nations this year, at least three more than any other team, with England scoring a joint-low one try in that fashion

So after four rounds of the Six Nations 2022, we are set up for what will hopefully be a thrilling finale under the lights at the Stade de France in Paris.

It is all shaping up to be a night of celebration for France, who have lived up to their billing as pre-tournament favourites to record four straight wins. But can England play the role of party-poopers?

While England have plenty of past experience in fluffing their lines in Grand Slam games – the early years of the Sir Clive Woodward reign were littered with them in and around the turn of the Millennium – France have an unblemished track record when the northern hemisphere’s biggest prize is tantalising close and the heat is on.

In 2002, 2004 and 2010, Les Bleus went into the final round of fixtures with four wins behind them and delivered a fifth. On the latter two of those occasions, England provided the opposition and they made sure the Grand Slam did not come easy for France.

In the first instance, England valiantly fought back from 24-6 down after 55 minutes to close to within three points of France but they could not complete what would have been a remarkable recovery with France winning 24-21.

And in 2010, France had to desperately defend a 12-7 half-time lead as England threw the kitchen sink at them. However, England only had a Jonny Wilkinson penalty to show for their second-half dominance, France winning 12-10.

This time around, France are seven-point favourites and while it would be typically contrary of Eddie Jones to go to Paris and win, the difference between the teams in terms of cohesion is probably more than one score.

Whereas previously they might have relied too heavily on flashes of brilliance from star half-backs, ANTOINE DUPONT and Romain Ntamack, it has taken a truly unified team effort to get France to where they are now – on the verge of history.

Even with Covid-19 coming into play, head coach Fabien Galthié has never made more than two changes to his starting line-up from round to round. This is a French team, in contrast to England especially, whose whole is greater than the sum of its parts. That said, Dupont is a man for the big occasion, and is justifiably favourite in the Man of the Match market.

• CLICK HERE to back Dupont MOTM with Sky Bet

Jones is fast challenging Claudio Ranieri’s reputation as the tinker man when it comes to selection, with Freddie Steward, as rock solid a full-back as you’ll find, moved to the wing to accommodate the arrival of George Furbank in the No.15 jersey. Northampton man Furbank endured a nightmare debut under the high ball against France two years ago and the home side will no doubt target him again.

With Steward and Jack Nowell on the wings, and a centre partnership that doesn’t ooze creativity, England’s attack relies too heavily on Marcus Smith’s magic. Keep him out of the game, as Ireland did in open play, and there isn’t much else.

England have only scored seven tries, five of them against Italy, and Smith has two of them. He is the Six Nations 2022 top points-scorer with 63 points, which is very nearly three-quarters of England’s overall total.

Unless England can disrupt France’s rhythm by kicking as well as Wales did and force them into mistakes and penalties, it is hard to see them getting within one score of the home team.

Another tactic will be to try and get under France’s skin at every opportunity, and add to the pressure that will already be on Les Bleus as they look to end 12 years without the trophy. But this is a well-disciplined French team – one that hasn’t given away a card of any colour this Championship, and whose average penalty count per game is in single figures.

While we believe this France v England Grand Slam match will be settled by a bigger margin than the two previous ones in 2004 and 2010, the game might follow a similar pattern in that France can be expected to build a decent lead with England scoring late on, but merely in consolation.

FRANCE HT/FT is a solid bet once more and they can finish the job they started in February.

• CLICK HERE to back France HT/FT with Sky Bet

Posted at 1135 GMT on 18/03/22

Ireland v Scotland

1.5pts over 53.5 points in Ireland v Scotland at 5/6 (Sky Bet)

1.5pts Ireland to score over 4.5 tries at 4/5 (Sky Bet)

Kick-off time: Saturday, 1645 GMT

Venue: Aviva Stadium

Where to watch: ITV

Best bet: Over 52.5 points

Key stats

• Ireland need to win to keep their title hopes alive
• A rare top-half-of-the-table finish is possible for Scotland if they win and England lose in Paris
• Ireland have won seven of their last eight Six Nations matches against Scotland, a defeat in 2017 at BT Murrayfield the only exception in this run
• At home, Ireland have won 10 of their 11 Six Nations matches against Scotland, including the last five in a row, Scotland’s only victory in Dublin coming at Croke Park in 2010 (23-20)
• Since 2014, only England (2019) and France (2021) have picked up away wins against Ireland in the Six Nations, the hosts winning 19 of their other 20 such fixtures (16-16 draw with Wales, 2016)
• Scotland have won five of their last six away games in the Guinness Six Nations (L1), as many as they’d won in their previous 43 such fixtures in the Championship (D1 L37)
• Scotland have made the fewest 22 entries per game in the Guinness Six Nations this year (6.8), however they’ve averaged the most points per entry of any nation (2.9); Ireland have averaged the most 22 entries (12) and boast the second most points per entry (2.8)
• Ireland have made 30 line breaks in the Six Nations this year, more than any other team, while Scotland have made the second most (24); they are also the two top ranking teams for defenders beaten (Scotland 107, Ireland 84)
• Ireland’s James Lowe (176) and Scotland’s Stuart Hogg (165) made the most metres over the gainline in Round 4 of this year’s Six Nations, no other player has gained as many in a match during the Championship in 2022
• Lowe is one of the three players to have scored a competition-high three tries this year (also Damian Penaud and Gabin Villière), despite playing one game fewer than the two other top try scorers

Like France, Ireland are well-disciplined in defence, can score from anywhere in attack and boast a system that benefits from continuity of selection, whereas Scotland are still maddeningly inconsistent.

The Scots haven’t won in Dublin in 12 years but go there with what is a bit of a free shot. No-one expects them to win, and that makes them dangerous, even with maverick Finn Russell relegated to the bench.

However, Ireland have far too much about them not to get the win they need to stay in the title race.

Points should come freely given the nature of the game is like to be fast and loose and both teams have proved themselves to be clinical when within sight of the opposition try-line.

Ireland, though, tend to carve out more opportunities and the sheer weight of numbers in terms of visits to the opposition 22 has been converted into 20 tries – double that of Scotland.

Breaking down Ireland’s defence may prove challenging too, even for a Scotland side containing dangerous runners like Stuart Hogg and Darcy Graham. Ireland have gone two whole games without conceding a try, with Cyril Baille’s close-range effort in round two the last time their line was breached.

Ireland to keep the pressure on France is the verdict here, by around 16-20 points, which is a tempting 13/2 shot in places. We'll play the TOTAL POINTS line instead, however, with over 53.5 a very solid bet, and IRELAND OVER 4.5 TRIES likewise.

• CLICK HERE to back over 53.5 points with Sky Bet
• CLICK HERE to back over 4.5 Ireland tries with Sky Bet

Wales v Italy

1pt Italy to score first v Wales at 13/5 (Betfair Sportsbook)

1pt Gareth Davies anytime try-scorer at 6/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Kick-off time: Saturday, 1415 GMT

Venue: Principality Stadium

Where to watch: BBC

Best bet: Gareth Davies anytime try-scorer

Key stats

• Wales have won each of their last 14 Six Nations matches against Italy, last losing against the Azzurri back in 2007 at the Stadio Flaminio, one of two defeats against Italy in the Championship, also losing in 2003 at the same stadium (W19, D1)
• An 18-18 draw in 2006 is the only blemish in a perfect home record for Wales against Italy in the Six Nations, winning their other 10 such matches by an average margin of 30 points
• Wales lost their most recent home game in the Six Nations, however they’ve not lost consecutive games at the Principality Stadium in the Championship for 15 years, when they lost to France in their final game of 2006 before suffering defeat against Ireland in their opening game in 2007
• Italy have lost their last 36 games in the Six Nations, the longest run in the history of the Championship (incl. Five Nations); their last victory came away from home, beating Scotland 22-19 at BT Murrayfield in 2015
• Italy and Wales have averaged 7.3 entries into the opposition 22 per game in this year’s Six Nations, only Scotland (6.8) have recorded fewer, while they’ve recorded the fewest and second fewest points per 22 entry respectively (Italy 0.9, Wales 1.6)

With the teams occupying the last two positions in the Six Nations table, this is an under card match if ever there was one; however, it’s unlikely to feature a sucker punch.

Indeed, defeat to Italy for the first time ever on Welsh soil would be an unthinkable way to mark the milestones of Alun Wyn Jones and Dan Biggar, who are set to win their 150th and 100th caps for Wales respectively.

Even though they have failed to put up much of a title defence, there is no reason to believe that Wales, for all their injury and selection issues, will not extend their winning run (in all competitions, home or away) over the Azzurri to 17 matches.

But Wales are a hard team to back on the handicap, especially when giving up 30 points, as their attack has been found wanting. That is hardly surprising considering their centre combination has changed from round to round and the supply of decent ball to the wings has been in short supply.

Against France last weekend, they failed to score a single try. This is the first time this has happened at home in the Six Nations since 2009.

Of course, they will put that right against Italy, it’s just that Wales don’t look like a team capable of ruthlessly dismantling any opposition, even the Six Nations’ perennial wooden-spoonists.

With no value to be had on Wales and handicap betting too risky, backing ITALY TO SCORE THE FIRST POINTS OF THE MATCH at 13/5 (Betfair) could be a decent alternative approach.

In two of their four matches to date (v France and Scotland), Italy have taken the lead through the boot of Paolo Garbisi. Added to this, Wales have been notoriously slow starters, failing to score any points whatsoever in the first half against Ireland and England, and they conceded the first points against France in round four.

Wales will be hellbent on boosting their meagre try tally of five and scrum-half GARETH DAVIES looks as good a bet as any to get his name on the scoresheet.

Davies starts for the first time this Championship and has the nose for a gap and the pace to exploit it to be in a position to add to the two tries he has scored already against Italy.

• CLICK HERE to back Davies to score a try with Sky Bet

More from Sporting Life

• Six Nations 2022 guide: Fixtures & results

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