Wales are set to be rolled over once again when they host France on Sunday. Jon Newcombe has the best bets for the final Six Nations game of the weekend.
Rugby union betting tips: Wales vs France
3pts France (-30) to win on the handicap at 10/11 (General)
2pts France to score over 49.5 points at 13/10 (BoyleSports)
1pt Louis Bielle-Biarrey to score the first try at 11/2 (bet365)
1pt red card in the match at 9/2 (bet365)
Wales vs France preview and best bets
- Venue: Principality Stadium
- Start time: 15:10 GMT
- TV: BBC
The roof may be closed for Sunday’s clash between Wales and France, but our excitement at the handicap line of FRANCE -30 cannot be contained. With the inclement Cardiff weather kept at bay, France will be unhindered in their desire to keep the ball alive, play at pace and rip Wales to shreds. The only thing that’ll stop them will be themselves, as Wales have proved incapable of keeping their line intact against teams ranked in the top four in the world.
In the final two November internationals against the teams ranked first and second, New Zealand and South Africa, Wales lost 52-26 and 73-0, and despite having had two months to sort themselves out, they began 2026 with another 48 points conceded and seven scored in reply against England last weekend. France are well-enough equipped to pile on the misery and go 50 points-plus.
On the other side of the coin, Wales have shown sparks of promise in attack, but it is hard to see them going over 20, as they did against a tired All Blacks team. France arrive with a rookie centre partnership due to injuries to last week’s pairing, Yoram Moefana and Nicolas Depoortere, with Fabien Brau-Boirie set for his Test debut alongside Pau team-mate, Émilien Gailleton. But it’s questionable whether Wales have the class to exploit any weaknesses.
Wales head coach Steve Tandy has followed the French example and paired the Scarlets duo of Joe Hawkins and Eddie James at 12 and 13. Hawkins has improved after returning to Wales from an unhappy time at Exeter but would struggle to get anywhere near the French team, even with three frontline centres absent, while 110 kg, 1.93m James was fairly anonymous against England, which, for someone of his size, takes some doing.
If Wales’ attempts to move the ball are as laboured and inaccurate as they were a week ago in south-west London, France will relish the opportunities to scoop up any loose ball and release the likes of LOUIS BIELLE-BIARREY, who seems a certainty to get on the scoresheet. This is reflected in the anytime tryscorer market, where he’s a short odds-on favourite. For those looking for a much more generous return, he's around 11/2 to cross the line first.
None of the other selection changes made to the Wales XV will particularly trouble France, with last week’s props swapped around, and a back-row rejig seeing a recall for Olly Cracknell at No.8. Cracknell is an unswerving workhorse, but compared to, say, Taulupe Faletau, he’s not an X-factor, game-changing type of player and Wales will find this heavy going.
With Wales likely to be under pressure for long periods, their discipline could crack as it did against England when conceding a record-equalling four yellow cards. Wales-France games haven’t been typically dirty affairs of late, with not a single card issued in six of the last 10 meetings. But Wales have some hot-headed players in their ranks, and in two of the four games where a card was shown, a player has been sent off (Paul Willemse and Sebastien Vahaamahina). For that reason, bet365’s red card market might be worth looking at.
Posted at 12:30 GMT on 13/02/26
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