Jon Newcombe previews the final round of fixtures in the Six Nations, beginning with Ireland vs Scotland and concluding with France vs England.
Our Six Nations started a bit like Scotland’s, on a real downer. Immanuel Feyi-Waboso’s eve of tournament injury ruined our top tryscorer pick for starters, and then two games in, it became obvious that confidence in England to go all the way was badly misplaced.
However, it hasn’t all been bad. Thomas Ramos’ remarkable consistency should reward punters who followed our advice and backed him to be the top points scorer, while the last three match rounds have delivered a profit.
So, here’s to a glorious end to what has been a Six Nations like no other, one where three teams enter the final weekend still in with a chance of winning the title.
A Scottish win would perhaps be the most remarkable of the lot, given they’ve never won the Six Nations before, and they began with a loss... to Italy. No team has lost to Italy on their way to lifting the trophy, while there’s only ever been three previous instances of a team bouncing back from a round one defeat and finishing top: France (2006), Wales (2013) and England (2020).
Below you'll find my thoughts on each game, starting in Dublin.
Ireland vs Scotland betting tips
3pts Ireland (-5) to win on the match handicap at evens (General)
2pts under 47.5 total match points at 6/5 (BoyleSports)
1pt Jamison Gibson-Park anytime tryscorer at 4/1 (SpreadEx)
The Six Nations title race will become a lot clearer after the Triple Crown decider in Dublin. Whoever wins will still be in with a shout of the title, with the caveat that England must do them a favour in the final game away to defending champions, table-topping France, who lead Scotland on points difference.
Scotland have never won at the Aviva Stadium, as it stands now. Their last Six Nations victory in Dublin was at the GAA’s Croke Park in 2010, and before that, at the old Lansdowne Road in 1998. Taking all games into consideration, Scotland are on an 11-game losing streak against Ireland, which underlines the magnitude of the task facing Gregor Townsend’s history-chasing team.
Confidence will be coursing through Scotland’s veins after putting France to the sword in such spectacular fashion in round four, winning 50-40, and they have the ability to do the same to Ireland. The question everyone is asking is whether they can mentally turn up when there is so much on the line, and how big a blow is the loss of their two starting locks? At least in-form winger Kyle Steyn has been passed fit.
Personally, I just can’t look past previous failures against Ireland, who should be able to cover a 5.5-POINT HANDICAP, if not more, against a side that has played much better at home than away in this year’s championship. Admittedly, Ireland were a long way off their best in both of their home matches to date, a scrappy 20-13 win against Italy and last Thursday’s 27-17 win against Wales. But they still got the job done and are due a better performance in front of their own fans who very rarely see them lose at the Aviva – only once in the last 18 games there, in fact.
Winning the match first and foremost, not margins and bonus points, will be the sole focus of Andy Farrell and Townsend, so I don’t expect this to be a final weekend free-for-all but rather follow the trend of it being a relatively low-scoring fixture; the last nine Six Nations clashes have produced 51 points or fewer. For whatever reason, Scotland have found it extremely hard to break down the Irish defence, and they will need to be every bit as clinical as they were against France if they’re going to improve on their poor record of just five tries from the last four meetings.
One fascinating head-to-head could be the scrum-half duel between JAMISON GIBSON-PARK and fellow British & Irish Lion, Ben White. Both are sparky characters as well as players, who offer a tryscoring threat and have crossed the whitewash in this championship.
Based on the fact that Scotland might find tries hard to come by, and Ireland will be fairly direct and keen to explore any weaknesses around the ruck defence, Gibson-Park may be the better bet of the two.
Wales vs Italy betting tips
2pts Wales to beat Italy at 6/4 (General)
1pt Italy/Wales in HT/FT market at 17/2 (Betfred, BoyleSports)
1pt Josh Adams anytime tryscorer at 2/1 (BetMGM, VirginBet)
1pt more Wales penalties than tries at 11/4 (bet365)
WALES have a win in them, I’m convinced of it.
The performance levels have grown game by game under Steve Tandy, and they could quite easily have beaten either Scotland or Ireland had a couple of things gone their way. Yet here we are. It’s now three years and counting since Wales last tasted success in rugby’s oldest championship.
While Wales continue to stare from the bottom up as they face the prospect of a third straight wooden spoon, Italy are still adjusting to the fact they’re not automatic underdogs. While they go into this match as 4/6 favourites, Wales could put up a stiffer challenge than the one the Azzurri faced in seeing off an ill-disciplined England in Rome.
In truth, Italy didn’t technically play that well last week, and neither did they have to. But they’ll have to raise their game against a Welsh side showing much more pride in the jersey. For those seeking better odds than the 6/4 on a home win, a HT/FT result of ITALY/WALES might be the way to go, because the Azzurri tend to score the bulk of their points in the first half before tailing off.
Defensively, Wales have been a lot sounder in the last two rounds than they were in the first two, roughly conceding half as many points against Scotland and Ireland as they did against England and France. Italy will have to work hard for their points on Saturday, as they have done all championship, averaging just 15.5 points and 1.5 tries per match.
In a game that looks very tight on paper, goal-kicking could be crucial. This is one aspect of the game where Wales have been very good. They’re the only team with a success rate of over 90% from the tee and Dan Edwards doesn’t look like he can miss at the moment, so MORE WALES PENALTIES THAN TRIES, a market available to bet365 account holders, could be a good shout.
In open play, Wales need to heed the fact that Italy dealt with England’s high-kick strategy very well. So far, they’ve been very keen to put the ball up in the air as much as possible. But now might be the time for Wales to get the ball to the edge a little more often and bring the back three into play.
It’s a sad indictment of the state of their back play that penalty tries came out on top in the try-scoring stakes last year, and this year, a prop leads the way. Rhys Carre has scored in the last three rounds, including a 30-metre sprint against Ireland, when his smile was as broad as the hole he burst through. According to BoyleSports, he’s now the same odds as the likes of Louis Rees-Zammit and JOSH ADAMS to get on the scoresheet against Italy.
Half of the 12 tries Italy have conceded this championship have been to back-three players, though, and out of the Welsh triumvirate, Adams looks the most likely. While he’s a shadow of the player who was the top tryscorer at RWC 2019, the Cardiff man still has the capacity to be in the right time and place, and possesses the necessary power to finish off what few chances come his way.
France vs England betting tips
2pts France (-22) to win on the handicap at 7/4 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
2pts France to score over 39.5 points at 10/11 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
1pt Charles Ollivon anytime tryscorer at 5/2 (Unibet)
0.5pt Thibaud Flament Player of the Match at 25/1 (BoyleSports)
Normally, ‘Super Saturday,’ as the triple-header ending to the championship is traditionally known, throws up a high-scoring game or two, especially when multiple teams enter the final round with silverware still on the line. And looking at this weekend, the game in Paris is the most likely to blow the scoreboard out.
Given their different approaches to the game and the gulf in form, it’s more than likely that FRANCE will be doing the bulk of the scoring, which potentially opens up some interesting opportunities in the handicap market. As things stand, France are rated as 15.5 favourites. But their ability score points very quickly – they managed 26 in the final 15 minutes of their 50-40 defeat to Scotland in round four – and the way that England have defended so poorly suggests this year’s fixture could be renamed ‘Le Carnage’.
I’m inclined to think there could be an additional score between the teams, with Les Bleus, who are playing in a lighter shade of blue on this occasion, capable of covering at least 22.5 points. Scotland fought fire with fire in ending France’s Grand Slam hopes at Murrayfield, scoring with virtually every visit into the opposition 22. But such ruthlessness and execution have proved beyond this England team, who have the worst record in turning attacking pressure into points.
Anyway, the onus isn’t on England to throw caution to the wind and take off the statistical shackles that have inhibited their attacking game, but to get a win, any sort of win, because a win away to France, however messy, will see Steve Borthwick reclaim some lost credibility. Instead, they will look to squeeze France at scrum-time and persist with the kick-heavy game that has failed them so miserably. England have been awarded more scrum penalties than any other team, but that will only get them so far. It might be enough to keep them within touching distance for the first half, but you need to do more to beat France than accumulate three points at a time.
Louis Bielle-Biarrey probably had his worst game of the Six Nations against Scotland, yet still managed to score. The winger has scored a try in nine consecutive championship rounds and is about 4/7 to take that record into double figures. If you’re looking for a potentially better return on your investment, though, CHARLES OLLIVON’s record of four tries in three games against England cannot be overlooked, especially now that he’s playing No.8 rather than in the tighter confines of the second row.
That said, lock THIBAUD FLAMENT has an impressive two tries from three appearances against England. And if I recall rightly, the fluent English speaker always seems to play well against opponents he is familiar with from his time at Hartpury College. He is 25/1 to be Player of the Match with BoyleSports, more than double what’s on offer at Ladbrokes and Coral.
Every now and then, putting these pieces together, you come across a stat that makes you doubt yourself. But after triple-checking the match details, I can confidently say not a single yellow card has been issued in the last seven Anglo-French clashes. The last player to be sent to the sin-bin was France’s Gael Fickou in a 44-8 defeat for Les Bleus at Twickenham, which is surprising given the ferocity of play and the loathing that exists on both sides of the channel.
So, you can either take that stat and trust referee Nika Amashukeli will keep his hands out of his pockets, or, like me, believe it has to end sometime, and why not Saturday?
England’s discipline has been woeful – they’ve conceded a tournament-high 44 penalties and have had seven yellow cards. If they pick up another against France, they will equal the Six Nations record of nine set by the 2002 Italian team. No doubt Borthwick will have drummed the message into them that it’s imperative they keep 15 players on the park at all times, but with the pressure they’re bound to come under, someone could easily lose their head.
Posted at 09:25 GMT on 13/03/26
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