Jon Newcombe previews Saturday's action in the Six Nations, with Scotland hosting France before England face a tricky trip to Rome.
Rugby union betting tips: Scotland vs England
3pts France (-10) on the match handicap at evens (General)
1pt France winning margin 8-14pts at 100/30 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
1pt Scotland/France half-time/full-time at 11/2 (bet365, Betfred)
1pt Matthieu Jalibert anytime tryscorer/France win at 21/10 (William Hill)
- Scroll down for Italy vs England
Scotland vs France preview and best bets
- Venue: Murrayfield
- Start time: 14:10 GMT
- TV: BBC One
France escaped with victory by the ‘Skin-ner’ of their teeth on their last visit to Murrayfield in 2024, with Les Bleus just about holding onto a precarious four-point lead. It looked for all the world that Scotland had snatched victory from the jaws of defeat that day when lock Sam Skinner was driven over in the last play of the game. But referee Nic Berry ruled that the ball had been held up and the TMO, despite the protestations of the Murrayfield crowd, found no conclusive evidence to overrule him. The game finished 20-16 to the visitors.
On the face of it, what happened two years ago might have very little bearing on Saturday’s clash. But the Scottish rugby team loves to right perceived wrongs and fight injustice. They’re a team that feeds off emotional energy more than most, and you can bet that the Sam Skinner moment will still linger in the psyche of the players who took to the Murrayfield that day. Thirteen of the 23 frustrated souls will be out for revenge here.
If Scotland are to stand any chance of preventing France from winning the Six Nations with a round to spare, they need to put in a complete 80-minute performance. In the 2024 near-miss and last year’s 35-16 defeat in Paris, only three points separated the teams at the break. However, Scotland failed to show up in the second half of both matches, scoring just three points in each.
For this reason, backing SCOTLAND HALF-TIME/FRANCE FULL-TIME makes sense, especially with France’s capacity to run amok in the final quarter. One caveat is that Scotland were very poor in the first half of their away matches against Italy and Wales, trailing 15-7 and 17-5, respectively. But, in their only home game to date, the 30-21 win over England, Scotland led 24-10 at the break.
As we have mentioned before, Scotland are maddeningly inconsistent in this respect. It was the same in the autumn, they found themselves on the ropes against the All Blacks and trailed 17-0 at the end of the first half before storming back into the contest. While the following week, they were the ones dominating the scoreboard early, only to blow a 14-0 half-time lead. Whether our faith in them to get off to a fast start against France is misplaced, only time will tell. But 114 first-half points scored and 61 conceded in their last six home games against Tier 1 nations tells its own story.
Scotland-France games evoke memories for me of free-flowing running rugby, with images of Gregor Townsend, the player, not the coach, pulling the strings at 10 and playing in a liberated manner more associated with the French. The current Scottish backline has a French feel to it as well, with Finn Russell, the new Townsend, having played previously at Racing 92, while his halfback partner Ben White and full-back Blair Kinghorn currently ply their trade in the Top 14 with Toulon and Toulouse. Centre Huw Jones will be joining them over the channel in the summer after signing for Montpellier.
Both backlines ooze quality. But the reality is that games between the two most entertaining teams in the Six Nations don’t always end up being a classic. Only two of the previous 26 matches have gone over 55 points, while 13 have gone under 40. If you’re looking for the middle ground, the median total since 2000 is just 38 points. With Murrayfield due to be bathed in March sunshine, it’s hoped that this year’s clash will spring to life on the scoreboard, and the recent trend is upward, with four of the last five meetings ranging from an above-average 50 to 53 points.
Jack Dempsey’s return to the back of Scotland’s pack much sooner than expected from a bicep injury against England is a big boost for them, as Townsend’s freshened-up pack needs to go toe-to-toe with their French counterparts and the Australian-born player was one of their standout performers until being forced off against England.
But this is a special French team, one that will be all the better for having MATTHIEU JALIBERT back at 10 and Thomas Ramos at 15, and Les Bleus should complete their victory parade in style, winning by at least two scores and overcoming the 10-POINT HANDICAP. We'll have a smaller bet on a WINNING MARGIN OF 8-14 POINTS, given us a good chance to land both bets if we're right.
Rugby union betting tips: Italy vs England
3pts Italy (+8) on the match handicap at evens (General)
1pt Italy/England half-time/full-time at 6/1 (Betfred)
2pts Elliot Daly anytime tryscorer at 3/1 (General)
2pts Italy more penalty goals than tries at 3/1 (bet365)
1pt Red card in the match at 9/2 (bet365)
Italy vs England preview and best bets
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico
- Start time: 16:40 GMT
- TV: ITV
At the risk of acting like a captain at cricket who chases the ball in positioning his field, the form and the mood of both camps are pointing us towards a first-ever win for Italy over England at the 33rd attempt. But rather than risk it all on a famous Azzurri win, because, let’s be honest, England surely can’t play as badly as they did against Ireland, ITALY ON THE HANDICAP and to be in front at half-time could be a good compromise.
Overall, the Azzurri have scored 85% (33/39) of their points in the first half of matches this year and have yet to score a second-half try.
England are the only Six Nations team that Italy have yet to beat, and they’ve never been better placed to break that duck. Mind you, I said the same before Italy’s game with Ireland, and they didn’t get the win that they arguably deserved that day. I can’t shake off the feeling that another heroic failure beckons, although a small side-bet on the home side to edge it might be worthwhile to spare any ‘what ifs’ moments.
Italy have defied the handicapper in all three of their games to date – the 18-15 win at home to Scotland, the 20-13 defeat to Ireland in Dublin and even in the 33-8 loss against France in Lille, the margin of defeat fell below what was expected. If England do go to Rome and get the win that they so desperately need, it won’t be by many, maybe not as much as the +8 point start you can get on Italy at around evens.
The Azzurri have scored more than 20 points in each of their last two games against England, and they will need to do so again to achieve the long-awaited win. But in this championship, they are averaging only 13 points per game and have mustered just four tries, despite at times attacking impressively.
If past history is anything to go by, penalty goals kicked could easily outnumber Italian tries. Finishing off opportunities inside the opposition's 22 has been Italy’s weakness. To date, they venture into the ‘red-zone’ around eight to nine times per match and are only averaging 1.4 points for every foray into enemy territory. They’ll need to at least double that return to send England packing.
Even with one of Europe’s best centre partnerships, Tomasso Menoncello and Juan Ignacio Brex, reunited in the Italian midfield, and coming up against a new double act in Seb Atkinson and Tommy Freeman, England still probably have more tries in them as a team. That might sound strange given that the Six Nations’ joint top try-scorer, Henry Arundell, has been axed. But his replacement, Cadan Murley, will be desperate to make a positive impression after a good-and-bad, try-scoring debut against Ireland last year.
Having the running threat of ELLIOT DALY alongside him in the back three should open up some holes for the Quins man to exploit, as he looks to add to his tally of three tries in four Tests. But Daly’s record against Italy can’t be ignored in the anytime tryscorer market. The Saracens man has crossed for four tries in six outings against the Azzurri and is much better odds than Murley to grab another.
For those who enjoy a bit of a novelty bet, it might have gone unnoticed that referee Luc Ramos was born on Valentine’s Day. Fittingly, the Frenchman loves to brandish a RED CARD and it’s 9/2 that he reaches into his pocket and does so again in Rome.
Posted at 13:45 GMT on 06/03/26
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