Six Nations betting tips: Scotland vs England and Ireland vs Italy previews and best bets

Rugby union betting tips: Scotland vs England

3pts Scotland (+9) to win on the handicap at evens (BoyleSports)

1pt England penalty first scoring play 21/10 (bet365, IO Bet)

0.5pt England drop-goal first scoring play 25/1 (bet365)

0.5pt Maro Itoje to be named Player of the Match at 12/1 (BoyleSports)

0.5pt Tom Roebuck first tryscorer at 10/1 (William Hill, BoyleSports)

0.5pt Henry Pollock last tryscorer at 18/1 (Betfred)

• Scroll down for Ireland vs Italy preview and tips

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Scotland vs England preview and best bets

• Venue: Murrayfield
• Start time: 16:40 GMT
• TV: ITV

In years gone by, a win over England saved Scotland’s season. However, the profound disappointment of last weekend’s result in Rome means that winning the Calcutta Cup back will only go part of the way to restoring faith in Gregor Townsend and the so-called ‘Golden Generation.’

In truth, Scotland’s defeat to Italy was the worst possible result for England, as well as Scotland. Scotland doesn’t need any extra motivation when it comes to playing England, especially at home, but the pounding they’ve taken in the media will have only served to fire them up even more.

If ever they were going to play for their coach, this is the match. It’s Townsend’s 100th Test in charge, and perhaps final Test, because taking the emotion away from it, logic says England will win.

But because of the backdrop to the match, and the fact that the last six Calcutta Cup clashes have been decided by single-digit margins, it might be prudent to back SCOTLAND ON THE HANDICAP. England left a lot of points out there against a Wales team that lost four men to the sin-bin, and if they’re guilty of being profligate again, that could also give Scotland more of a chance of getting closer to them on the scoreboard.

It seems strange to say this, but the much-improved weather forecast for Saturday might also work in Scotland’s favour. Some of Scotland’s most famous Calcutta Cup wins north of the border were played in typical Edinburgh weather, with the spoiling nature of the conditions enabling them to drag a dominant England down to their level. But this current Scotland side is at its best when they’re able to move the ball wide and play at a fast tempo, and they’ll appreciate the brief window of sunshine after they slipped to an 18-15 defeat in the deluge in Rome last weekend.

For Scotland supporters, rugby’s version of being waterboarded was torturous to watch. Even the tried-and-trusted combinations in the backline of Ben White/Finn Russell at half-back and Sione Tuipulotu/Huw Jones in midfield failed to function as they should, whereas England travel north with partnerships in key positions clicking nicely. Scotland didn’t break the Italian defensive line once and failed to convert a 29-phase attack when the clock was in the red into the match-winning score, so the only way is up.

With the changes made to the pack and a dry ball, you’d expect Scotland to have more about them in attack this weekend – if they can win sufficient lineout possession, which was a real problem for them at the Stadio Olimpico. The totemic MARO ITOJE is back in England’s starting line-up and will be doing his darnedest to disrupt Scotland throws and generally make a nuisance of himself around the pitch.

England will need their captain to stand up and produce his best, and he could be a good shout at decent odds for the Player of the Match award at 12/1 with BoyleSports.

Since the start of last season’s Six Nations, England have scored first in 75% of their matches against Tier 1 teams (9/12). George Ford has started the last seven of those, and kicked the first points in four, twice via a penalty and twice via a drop goal. All this leads us to the conclusion that the odds are a little inflated for the first scoring play to be an England penalty (12/5) or even a drop goal (25/1).

Ford, who has been the Player of the Match in two of his last three games, has almost single-handedly brought the drop goal into fashion and will fully recognise the importance of silencing the home crowd by getting points on the board early, by whatever means possible. Over the same period and against the same level of opposition, Scotland have only opened the scoring 44.4% of the time, and all of those scores – including Ben White’s against England – were tries.

As for try-corers, Scotland might rue Inverness-born TOM ROEBUCK turning his back on the country of his birth to play for England, with the ever-dangerous Sale Sharks man 10/1 to cross the whitewash first.

Another player with more distant Scottish ancestry, HENRY POLLOCK, is sure to be on the receiving end of some booing from the Murrayfield stands, as the perceived epitome of English arrogance. He is always a good bet to be the last tryscorer (18/1), given his impact role off the bench.

Rugby union betting tips: Ireland v Italy

2pts Italy (+17) to win on the handicap at evens (bet365, BoyleSports)

2pts under 52.5pts total match points at 10/11 (bet365, 5/6 General)

2pts over 2.5 penalties scored at 11/10 (bet365)

1pt Dan Sheehan to score the first try at 13/2 (General)

0.5pt Ronan Kelleher to score the last try at 12/1 (Betfred)

Ireland v Italy preview and best bets

• Venue: Aviva Stadium
• Start time: 14:10 GMT
• TV: ITV

This is perceived to be Italy’s best-ever chance of ending their winless record in Dublin in the Six Nations, given Ireland are a waning force, and the Azzurri are at their most confident.

Whereas Ireland were a distinct second-best to France in Paris, Italy thoroughly outplayed Scotland in the Rome rain last weekend, and it is a little bit of a worry that they only scraped home 18-15 after a heroic rearguard action at the end.

Another concern is that Juan Ignacio Brex misses the match due to family reasons. Post-pandemic, the scrum-cap-wearing centre has been the glue in Italy’s midfield, starting 26 consecutive matches and lasting the distance in all but three of them. He is replaced at 12 by Leonardo Marin. Marin started last week’s match at full-back, but all of his other Test starts have been at inside-centre, so he is very familiar with what’s required.

While it’s tempting to go for the 17/2 about an Italian win, history says they have found it very hard to back up what few successes they have had over the 26-year history of the competition in its current form. They go to Dublin looking to win consecutive Championship matches for only the third time, having done so in 2007 and 2024.

The safer option is to back ITALY ON THE HANDICAP. That may seem at odds with what has happened in the past, with Ireland's average home winning margin in the mid-30-point range. But Ireland aren’t the same attacking force as they once were, while Italy are playing with a confidence with ball in hand not seen before and should have a couple of tries in them at least.

That said, the total number of points scored hasn’t topped 50 in the last three meetings between these teams. Ireland matches tend to be ‘slow burners’, giving ‘points under’ backers more of a run for their money than otherwise might be the case.

Looking specifically at the first quarter of matches, only 35 points have been scored in the first 20 minutes across their six Championship matches. Surprisingly, not a single point was scored in that period in the 42-27 hiding handed out by France. The race to 10 points might take some time, and I wouldn’t like to wager who’ll get there first.

bet365 have opened a market on the number of penalties in the match, and by the law of averages, it should exceed 2.5. In the last 10 Ireland matches against Nations Championship opposition, 31 penalties have been kicked, and it’s the same figure for Italy in their last 10 games at that level. The average goes up from 3.1 per match to 4.0 if you take Italy’s last three Tests in isolation. One cautionary note: last year’s game between these sides was an exception to the rule, with just one penalty slotted between the poles.

Looking at the respective benches, Ireland’s is infinitely stronger on paper, and that could be the deciding factor. So, while Italy did well to keep Scotland at bay when they finally found some rhythm late on in Rome, stopping a quartet of Lions – RONAN KELLEHER, Tadhg Furlong, Tadhg Beirne and Jamison Gibson-Park – might prove more problematic.

DAN SHEEHAN, Ireland’s hat-trick hero in last year’s 22-17 win, as first tryscorer and fellow hooker Kelleher to be last over the whitewash would top and tail things nicely for an Ireland team that probably won’t have things all their own way.

Kelleher is likely to get a good 25 minutes to half an hour on the pitch, as he tries to break his eight-game try-scoring drought for his country. At 12/1 in a place and 11s generally, he's a bet to cross last in a game Ireland should win, but perhaps not by that far this time.