Jon Newcombe produced profit in all three matches during the first weekend of Six Nations action. Don't miss his best bets for round two.
Rugby union betting tips: Six Nations round two
1pt over 55.5 points in England v Italy at 10/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt over 26.5 first-half points in England v Italy at 10/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
England v Italy
- Twickenham, London
- Sunday, 1500 GMT
- TV: ITV
As Valentine’s Day approaches, the hopelessly romantic among us would probably wish for a historic Italian win.
But, for us, it is pragmatism, a word commonly associated with Steve Borthwick teams, that is likely to win the day.
Italy have never beaten England in 29 previous encounters, 23 of them in the Six Nations, and a maiden victory on Sunday would rank as one of the biggest shocks in the history of the Championship, if not the biggest.
Historically, Italy’s best outcomes at Twickenham have come when they’ve arrived determined to play the role of spoilers not entertainers and their new-found desire to throw the ball around is only to be applauded.
But with that comes risk, as we saw against France, who opened up a 19-6 lead before their shocking penalty count allowed Italy to regain some control and push Les Bleus all the way.
In Six Nations encounters against Italy at Twickenham, England average 43 points, so with Italy likely to gift some points, we’d expect the home team to hit somewhere around that mark and lift what has been a downbeat mood of late.
Twickenham was this week described by Clive Woodward as the biggest pub in the world with fans more concerned with how much beer they can consume than the rugby itself, which contrarily, has been a sobering experience,
England have only won one of their last six matches at home, and for the first time in years, this match might not even sell out.
But as well as pockets of space in the stands, there should also be some on the pitch for England to exploit if Italy repeat the tactics they employed against France.
England made just two clean breaks in the Calcutta Cup defeat to Scotland and only averaged two points for each of their 11 visits into the opposition 22, so there is plenty of room for improvement there. But England did appear to have more tries in them than the three they managed and at least doubling that tally should be their aim.
Italy should fire a few shots, too, in what could be a surprisingly good spectacle, unlike many England-Italy games that have gone before.
In World Rugby Breakthrough Player of the Year Ange Capuozzo, Italy have a genuinely world-class threat and he’s helped to lift the games of players around him like hard-running outside centre, Juan Ignacio Brex.
In those 29 previous encounters against England, Italy have only got close enough to earn a losing bonus point once before. This time around, their best chance of getting something from the game is to score four tries, which they are certainly capable of, and that significantly improves the chances of the match going OVER 55.5 POINTS.
Given more than 30 points have been scored in the first half of three of Italy’s last five matches, that’s another market worth considering. Betfair are offering 10/11 for OVER 26.5 FIRST-HALF POINTS and that's the way to play Sunday's game.
- For more from Jon, follow @betsonrugby on twitter
Ireland v France
- Aviva Stadium, Dublin
- Saturday, 1415 GMT
- TV: ITV
1pt Ireland to win by 1-7 points at 11/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Johnny Sexton anytime try-scorer at 15/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Antoine Dupont first try-scorer at 16/1 (General)
The world’s two best sides and a repeat of what was effectively last season’s title decider – it is D-day in Dublin for Ireland and France.
The fact of the matter is that Ireland simply have to win if they are to be considered credible contenders for the Rugby World Cup later this year.
Other than the missing Tadhg Furlong, Ireland field their strongest XV and there can be no excuses if they come out short against a French team that is unchanged from Rome.
That said, it has the look of a 50:50 game yet somehow Ireland are 1/2 favourites.
Home advantage is a big thing for Ireland, but France are one of only four teams to have won at the Aviva Stadium in the last 50 Tests over a 10-year period there and, at a best-priced 21/10, they are the value bet if you want to take your chances on predicting a winner.
For our money, IRELAND will edge it by 1-7 POINTS, especially if France’s penalty count goes anywhere near last week’s total of 18.
With his advancing years, JOHNNY SEXTON seems to be patched up from week to week nowadays and has passed a Head Injury Assessment and recovered from a dead leg to, hopefully, make it onto the pitch this weekend.
We say hopefully because he has had to withdraw just before kick-off with injury issues before the last two French games. Surely, that can’t happen again?
Sexton, 37, is the man for the big occasion and they don’t get much bigger than this; Ireland need him out there dictating play.
Only nine of the 30 players selected to start this match have scored in an Ireland-France fixture, with 14 tries between them. And Sexton has four of them, from 12 appearances.
Ireland’s veteran 10 has scored more Test tries against France than any other nation, and he’s our anytime try-scorer recommendation, especially at 15/2 when he is as short as 5/1 elsewhere.
First try-scoring betting is, at the best of times, a bit of a lottery, but on this occasion we could be tempted to have a punt based on the fact that in nine of their last 10 games France have scored first.
If you believe in history repeating itself, that immediately narrows the field by half. Ethan Dumortier (14/1) and ANTOINE DUPONT (16/1) were arguably France’s two best performers in the win over Italy and the most likely to give them a dream start.
Dupont gets the vote though splitting stakes is another option ahead of what promises to be a fantastic game of rugby, one which may well determine the outcome of the 2023 Six Nations in just its fourth match.
Scotland v Wales
- Murrayfield, Edinburgh
- Saturday, 1645 GMT
- TV: BBC/S4C
One of the more surprising Six Nations stats is that Scotland have never kicked off a Championship, in its current guise, with two wins.
Since 2000 Scotland have won their opening match six times but on every occasion, they have gone on to fluff their lines and lose in round two. This is their best chance yet to put it to bed.
There would have to be a serious upturn in Wales’ performance and a drop-off in Scotland’s in the space of a week for Gregor Townsend’s men to not go into the break with two wins out of two.
Townsend’s biggest challenge this week would have been to keep everyone’s feet on the ground after the euphoria of the Calcutta Cup win but given what has happened before, you’d like to think complacency won’t be a problem.
Wales’ pack has a much more energetic and youthful feel to it following Warren Gatland’s reshuffle and it’s hard to not see them put up more of a fight than they did against Ireland.
Taulupe Faletau has been dropped to the bench while the world’s most-capped player, Alun Wyn Jones, and Justin Tipuric have been ousted from the squad altogether.
The first two are understandable calls but anyone that has watched Tipuric in action for the Ospreys this season will be incredulous that he has been given the chop after one quiet game.
Tommy Reffell gives Wales’ back-row a tigerish quality but with him and No.8 Jac Morgan in the back row together, a lot of the heavy-duty carrying will fall on the shoulders of the young and inexperienced Christ Tshiunza.
Also, other than the actual captain, hooker Ken Owens, the Wales pack looks very light on leadership and you do wonder how they’ll cope, psychologically, if Scotland’s set-piece – 100% against England last week – turns the screw in the early exchanges.
Gatland denies this Wales team selection signals a changing of the guard but his thinking already appears to be more long-term than short-term with a win over Scotland at Murrayfield – something Wales fans have become accustomed to in recent times – perhaps being viewed as a bonus.
Scotland, meanwhile, have made just the one change to their starting XV with Zander Fagerson coming in at tight-head for WP Nel, who drops to the bench.
With the benefit that continuity of personnel brings, their big players playing well and with confidence, this is the time for Scotland to set the record straight and really take the game to Wales.
Only once in the last 10 meetings have Scotland scored 25 points or more (the line this time around) but you’d bank on them creating plenty of scoring opportunities and if they can get anywhere near parity in the possession and territory stakes, tries should be forthcoming.
After all, they scored 29 points away to England despite only playing 29% of the game in the opposition half and with just 43% of the ball.
To expect them to be as clinical as they were against England is a big ask but going OVER 24.5 POINTS should be within their capabilities against a Wales defence still adjusting to the new methods of Mike Forshaw.
Duhan van der Merwe ran rings around England with one shoelace untied and still didn’t trip up. Neither will Scotland this weekend.
Posted at 1715 GMT on 10/02/23
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
