Jon Newcombe is back with his preview of Friday night's action from the Six Nations, where Ireland entertain Wales in Dublin.
Rugby union betting tips: Ireland vs Wales
3pts Total match points under 52.5 at 7/5 (Virgin Bet)
1pt Wales more penalty goals than tries at 6/1 (bet365)
1pt First scoring play Wales penalty at 9/2 (bet365)
1pt Robert Baloucoune first try-scorer at 7/1 (Unibet, BetVictor)
Ireland vs Wales preview and best bets
- Venue: Dublin
- Start time: Friday, 20:10 GMT
- TV: BBC
World Rugby’s colour blindness guidelines mean Wales will be wearing a different-coloured kit in Dublin on Friday night, sporting white jerseys instead of red. You’d expect the result to be anything but alternative, though. A fortnight ago, Ireland cast white-shirted opponents aside by inflicting a record 42-21 defeat on England, and you’d fancy them to improve on that margin under the Aviva Stadium lights with a big win against the side propping up the Six Nations log. History is also against Wales. They haven’t won a Six Nations match in Dublin since Leigh Halfpenny snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with a match-winning, last-gasp penalty in 2012.
As recent meetings between the Celtic cousins have been traditionally low-scoring affairs (the last seven have seen 45 points or fewer scored), I’d expect Ireland to get the bulk of the points – in the region of the high 30s, with Wales just about struggling to get into double figures. Even adjusting the calculations slightly upwards to account for the law book now favouring the attacking team, under 52.5 points could be the way to go. Only three of the nine matches to date in this year’s Six Nations have surpassed that tally (although two involved Wales), with the average match total being 49 points.
Ireland proved against England that they aren’t a spent force just yet. With Jack Carty’s steady hand on the tiller at 10 and his trusty goal-kicking giving them renewed confidence, Ireland look much more settled than when Sam Prendergast starts. And out wide, they now have the spark they need, thanks to the introduction of the electric Robert Baloucoune. Balacoune spent four years in the international wilderness and is fast making up for lost time with tries in the last two rounds. He’s as likely as anyone to score on Friday, which is reflected in the odds of 5/9 for him to cross the whitewash, so unless you’re willing to risk plenty for minimal gains, the first try-scorer market is the one we’d be inclined to look at.
With Ireland having bossed the gain line and the turnover battle in the first three rounds of the Six Nations, Wales might struggle to make much headway in attack. Probably their best bet to keep in touch on the scoreboard is through the boot of Dan Edwards. While lacking in some respects, Edwards’ goal-kicking has been consistently good over the last 12 months, and the Ospreys man can be relied upon to punish any penalties conceded by Ireland in their own half.
The only positive aspect of Ireland’s 36-14 defeat to France in round one was the impact of their bench and a very low penalty count of six. However, since then, they have conceded 10 against Italy and 12 against England, so chances are Edwards will be calling for the kicking tee on more than one occasion. A Wales penalty goal to be the first scoring play is a best-priced 9/2. And, if you have access to a bet365 account, the 6/1 for Wales to kick more penalties than score tries is an attractive 6/1.
Posted at 12:05 GMT on 05/03/26
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